I feel it to be very necessary to recap yesterday's horrible performance going 4-9 in college football is unacceptable. I take ownership and will recap each game to learn/grow from these type of days. There really is no sugar coating it but these days hurt me too. I have a lot of money on these games and I know you do too, which hurts even more. I watch/sacrifice time away from family watching this.. So when days like this happen it's very dissapointing. I have not lost confidence in my process, because my leans Firday night went 3-0, I kept Washington, Ole Miss + off my card and they easily won. It was just one of those bad weeks where we had some bad luck all around whether it be with the game process, injuries, drops etc.
In 7 of the losses the teams backed were a combined 23-94 on 3rd donw, that's 24.4% conversions. To put that into perspective Miami Ohio is 130th in the country and converts 25% of their third downs. 4th downs they went 8-22, just 36% while the nation average is 51.84%
South Florida +17.5 was tied at the half with SMU, 17-17, and play like crap in the 2nd half, but still have a shot at the end of the game to kick an extra point for us to cover and start the day 3-0! They go for 2, which makes zero sense other than to get practice, but when you have a Special Teams coach as the interim coach it's not surprising.
Arkansas +3.5 was a winner and in reality we got lucky considering KJ Jefferson was a scratch late. But again Arkansas in the red zone coming away with 0 points earlier in that game made this one hard to watch as they could have gone up 10-0, but at the end of the day we were fortunate to cover
Army/Troy Under 46 2.2% play probably my best handicap of the day and this winner was never in doubt.
Purdue +7 - This one was fun to watch and a rather easy cover as Purdue after getting down 7-0 really controlled this game. I felt like my handicap was spot on, and I look forward to handicapping Purdue games in the future.
Iowa State -1.5 - was our free play loser. This is where the luck started to go against us. Iowa State had a 77% win probablity in the 3rd quarter despite having turned the ball over 3+ time, they finish with 5 TO's, but the real head scratcher was MIke Gundy benching his son at QB for an injured Spencer Sanders who leads his team back to victory going 9-13 84 yards and a TD. So.. Arkansas game KJ Jefferson who was suppsoed to play doesn't, Oklahoma State was not supposed to play Spencer and they insert him and he saves the day to go against us.
Louisville +7 - Louisville down 17-7 just before the half and Micale Cunninghame is on a 40 yard run with no time left. Should have just slid down, but he takes a bit of a cheap shop in my opinion, and gets KO'd. He does not start the second half and it's an obvious drop off. Louisville a combined 5-18 on 3rd/4thdowns in this game.
Ole Miss/ Alabama Over 64.5- This total was just bad luck,b ut when you are betting an over this high you need some things to go right. Ole Miss came away with 0 points two times in the red zone. Alabama got off to a very slow start and was forced to kick 3 field goals in the game and both teams were a combined 0-4 on 4th down.
Kansas State +8.5 / Texas -1.5 teaser - Don't you know by now that we were going to easily hit one side and not come close on the second. They say you shouldn't tease college games, because it's extremely volatile, but I have found success. A lot of sharp people took it on the chin with Texas -7 / 7.5 yesterday. Not sure how to explain it other than poor coaching. Ewers should have been yanked from that game in my opinion and Sark has to be on the hot seat if they don't win out. Texas a combined 2-17 on 3rd and 4th downs in this game.
South Carolina+8.5- A huge part of my handicap was South Carolina's running game. Lloyd had practiced, and it sounded like he was going to play, but he didn't, which was another unlucky player injury. South Carolina got down early in this game, and it's never a good idea to have Spencer Rattler throwing the ball and making decisions. How Frank Beamer thinks he's an NFL talent I don't know. Carolina went 4-13 on 3rd/4th downs in the game and had 3 turnovers. Just a horrible handicap by me and a game I need to pass next time. I knew South Carolina had some luck with opponents they faced who had major injuries and they got two road wins they wouldn't have gotten. Major question marks for Beamer as his team has not improved this season.
Miss State +16.5 - the receivers for Miss State dropped so many balls in this game including a TD that would have given us the cover late. This one was frustrating, because we had a bit of luck with the punt return before half time and +2 TO margin, but MIss State receivers are 100% to blame for this loss. Should have known as MIke Leach has been vocal about that. All in all they go 3-17 on 3rd and 4th down... Catch the trend of the day?
Texas Tech -3.5- The right side all the way as Tech held leads of 10, 17, 12 very late and cap it off with the games final 10 points, but it was a bit nerve racking when Kansas made it a 5 point game late in the 4th quarter I thought we were headed towards a bad beat the way the day was going and even when Kansas had the ball down 36-28 late I figured Kansas would score and miss the 2 point converstion so Tech woudl win by 2 and we would lose, but luckily that did not happen. I wouldn't call this game luck. Tech obviously the better team and very good at home.
Wake Forest - 4 - North Carolina was a very heavy public loaded dog. I felt Wake had some value based on some turnover luck they had. Overall their defense was pathetic giving up 30 first downs, 10-16 on third down while their offense went 3-12 on third down, 4-6 on 4th. Still late they had an opportunity with the ball 34-33 in North Carolina to kick a field goal to go up 4, or convert a 4th down that hopefully leads to a TD, but they don't convert. Thought we were goin to get a lucky cover here.
California+14 MAX POD loser - This one hurt and to be honest I did not watch the second half. Justin Wilcox lost my trust a bit. I don't know if his team was not ready to play in the cold or what, but they only gave up 362 total yards, but allow ORegon STate to go 3-3 on 4th down, give up a punt return TD. This did not look like the team that wanted to go bowling, they go 4-14 on 3rd and 4th downs. Happy Birthday to Justin Wilcox who has won me a lot of money in the past, but I don't understand how your team can't play in the cold.
