South Florida +17.5 2.2% play
We backed Houston last week against this SMU team, and while they outgained SMu 710 to 642, they gave up 77 points and lost by 14. Now SMU goes on the road to face South Florida who just fired their head coach, a 1 win South Florida team, and SMU has a major look ahead to Tulane next Thursday night. South Florida also has a match up advantage here as they rank 22nd in ypc rushing offense, run the ball 56% of the time, and are 105th in pace going up against SMU who is 121st in ypc defense, 121st in epa run defense. I think the approach is to slow this game down, and not turn the ball over. Also expect a locker room morale boost, buy low situation, and some new scheme that SMU has not seen yet that could allow South Florida to cover this game. South Florida played within this number against several better teams including Florida, Cincinnati, and Tulane.
