Arkansas +3.5 -105 3.3% play
I’ve given Arkansas out as a dog a few times now since Sam Pittman took over and they have rarely let me down. KJ Jefferson is probable for this game, and I don’t think he will have issues with pain during the game. This is a huge rivalry game and the Battle of the Golden Boot. LSU will be going for a win to clinch the SEC West as long as Alabama beats Ole Miss, but I think they are going to have their hands full with Arkansas.
LSU coming off a massive upset of Alabama at home, and I just think they are in a rough spot here playing in just their 3rd road game overall. Arkansas has a top 50 pass rush, and that’s the one area that LSU has struggled, protecting the QB ranking 115th in sack % allowed. They faced a top 50 pass rush on the road in Auburn and were trailing 17-0 late in the second before Auburn blew that game and could not score in the second half. Arkansas is a far better team, and has a far better offense that can run and pass the ball. This should keep the LSU defense on its toes here, especially the running game. Arkansas run 61% of the time, and have mobile QB. LSU has given up 56 yards rushing on only 10 carries to Hendon Hooker, and 109 vs. Anthony Richardson on only 9 carries. KJ Jefferson is also a capable passer with a top 25 EPA pass offense. Arkansas is also desperate for a win having lost to Liberty in their last game they need a win to lock up a spot in a bowl game.
