Iowa State -1.5 1.1% Free Play
Oklahoma State is banged up here, and I don’t see Mike Gundy pushing guys back with Oklahoma on deck and a bowl game already locked in, but hey I could be totally wrong, and Spencer Sanders shoulder could miraculously heal, but this is a team that just lost by 21 to Kansas, and 48 to Kansas State. The defense lost a ton of guys from last year and it has shown as they rank 111th in ypp defense. Here Iowa State ranks 11th, so we are getting the better defense with a trending upward offense.
Oklahoma State’s defense also not forcing turnovers, which is the key to beat Iowa State. Oklahoma State ranks 114th in % defensive possessions ending in a TO. Iowa State -6 TO margin in their losses +4 in their wins, and I think they can play well enough on offense, and their defense has been the best in the Big 12. The line says it all we have a 4-5 team as a small favorite on the road against #18 ranked team that’s 6-3. Closer look also reveals the fact that Iowa State is +0.2 ypp differential vs. an average opponent +0.5 compared to Oklahoma State who is -1 ypp vs. +0.55.
