Purdue +7 -120 3% play
Illinois played two teams who were pass first offenses, that also could stop the run on defense, and they lost both of those games. Losing on the road to Indiana and at home to Michigan State a week ago. Purdue features an epa run defense that ranks 17th, while they pass the ball over 60% of the time. Illinois pass defense ranks 4th in epa, but a look at the passing offenses they have faced reveals an ugly truth. On average they have faced a 86.75 passing rank. I think we are getting Purdue at a great price here mostly because they are off two losses and a 24-3 throttling against Iowa, but they were throwing in 30mph winds, a game that clearly benefitted Iowa and not Purdue. Today’s forecast shows 10mph winds, with no precipitation and Purdue’s offense should have a better go of it. There is a lot on the line here Illinois leads all at 4-2 in the Big Ten West, and a 4 way tie behind them. Purdue needs a tie breaker win with Illinois to have a chance. This is a Big Ten elimination game for Purdue and I expect their best effort. Jeff Brohm has been outstanding as an away dog throughout his career and this is the type of spot I’d like to back him. They’ve been a good road team this year winning at Minnesota and Maryland as a dog, should have beaten Syracuse earlier in the year, and failed at Wisconsin a team that has just owned Jeff Brohm
