Oct 29, 2022
Freddy Wills
Cinci +2 3.3% play
Gus Malzahn needs the running game for his offense to work. It’s been no different at UCF where he’s just 1-5 vs. teams with a top 60 run defense. UCF has an interesting dynamic at QB with Plumlee, but he’s a one dimensional player and it’s something a quality defensive minded coach like Fickel can scheme for. Plumlee as a starter datin...
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Oct 29, 2022
Freddy Wills
Notre Dame +3 -120 4% play
Major let down spot for Syracuse after blowing a double digit lead against Clemson in a very phsyical game. To make it worse they had a roughing the passer late in the game that really cost them the game. I don't think they have much left for this game, and why did Sean Tucker only have 5 carries in the game? I don't htink Tucker is completely healthy,...
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Oct 29, 2022
Freddy Wills
Iowa State +1.5 2.2% play
Iowa State 0-4 in Big 12 play, but their losses are by a total of 14 points, and I think they are on the right track with their 3 point loss to Texas as Hunter Dekkers played by far his best game, and will be aided by the fact that they are facing at eam who ranks 106th in ypc defense, and at home again.
Oklahoma on the other hand are playing their toughe...
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Oct 29, 2022
Freddy Wills
West Virginia +7.5 3.3% play / West Virginia +240 0.3% play
TCU now off 5 straight games that have gone down to the wire with 4 of them being against top 20 opponents, and the 5th being against Sonny Dykes old team, SMU. TCU now goes on the road to face West Virginia in a bit of a let down/sleepy spot, and it’s a spot that TCU has struggled losing 4 straight to West Virginia, and Sonn...
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Oct 29, 2022
Freddy Wills
Arkansas -3.5 1.1% Free Play
I believe Bryan Harsin is a dead guy walking here and a bye is not going to save his job. Arkansas is coming in a little under rated even though they are a field goal favorite this was a team that was destined for a top 10 rating before they lost to Texas A&M on a KJ Jefferson fumble that was returned for a TD, making it a 10-14 point swing. The bye ce...
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Oct 29, 2022
Freddy Wills
Kentucky / Tennessee Over 62 3.3% play
This is a game I certainly lean Kentucky on the side, but I'm concerned with how fast Tennessee plays and gets out early in games. I would rather play Kentuck +14 or higher in live action or play them 2nd half. This was a back and forth game last year, and Kentucky's defense is not as good, while Will Levis and the passing game is better as Levis...
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Oct 28, 2022
Freddy Wills
BYU -3 3.3% PLAY
Can’t really compare the strength of schedules here. East Carolina’s only P5 opponent was NC State to open the season, while BYU has faced Arkansas, Notre Dame, Oregon, Baylor, and then a very good Liberty team. East Carolina also getting a bit more love than they should after beating UCF last week 34-13. UCF likely looking ahead to this week’s...
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Oct 27, 2022
Freddy Wills
Washington State +7 2.2% play
Statistically we have a pretty even match up as WAshington STate +0.2 yards per play vs. an average opponent +0.36, while Utah is +0.1 vs. average opponent +0.5. Washington State has a very good home field advantage, in fact Utah has not won here since 2011. Both teams off a bye, but I think that favors Washington State a bit more considering they had struggles...
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Oct 27, 2022
Freddy Wills
Tampa -130 2.5% play ...
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Oct 23, 2022
Freddy Wills
Dolphins / Steelers Over 44.5 3.3% play ...
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Oct 23, 2022
Freddy Wills
49ERS +1 2.2% PLAY ...
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Oct 23, 2022
Freddy Wills
Colts +3 -125 3.5% play ...
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Oct 23, 2022
Freddy Wills
Bengals -0.5 / Broncos +7.5 3.3% play ...
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Oct 23, 2022
Freddy Wills
Browns +7 -125 5.5% NFL POD...
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Oct 23, 2022
Freddy Wills
Giants +3.5 1.1% Free Play ...
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Oct 23, 2022
Freddy Wills
LIONS +7 3.3% PLAY ...
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Oct 22, 2022
Freddy Wills
California +7.5 2.2% play
Cal was in a battle at Notre Dame losing 17-24, they came back home beat Arizona 49-31, then lost b2b road games with a bye in between. The loss against Colorado is particularly head scratching as many believe Colorado to be the worst among Power 5 opponents. Perhaps Cal and Wilcox was looking ahead to his former employer’s meeting with Washington? ...
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Oct 22, 2022
Freddy Wills
Kansas State +3.5 3.3% play
TCU has a top 5 offense form a YPP perspective, but their average opponent ypp defense ranks 102.8, and here they’ll face Kansas State ranking 35th. It’s a big step up in class, and Kansas State which ranks top 10 in epa pass defense will also have 30mph wind gusts in their favor in this game. The windy environment definitely should help K...
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Oct 22, 2022
Freddy Wills
Pittsburgh +2.5 5.5% NCAAF POD
Malik Cunningham is cleared for this game for Louisville and that’s a good thing here. He hasn’t played in 3 weeks since suffering a concussion and Louisville off a bye. I always feel like QB’s struggle the first week coming back after a concussion. I feel like they aren’t necessarily 100%, and then they have to process so m...
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Oct 22, 2022
Freddy Wills
Liberty +7 3.3% play
I understand Liberty has not faced a tough schedule with an opponent YPP differential of -0.58, but BYU’s opponent YPP differential is -0.34, and they both put up +1ypp. BYU just went back to back against Notre Dame and Arkansas and got their buts kicked. They got their buts kicked against Oregon as well. The schedule is obviously tougher than what Lib...
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Oct 22, 2022
Freddy Wills
LSU -130 3% PLAY
LSU is just a different team at home particularly stopping the run where they only gave up 2.98 ypc last year compared to 4.89 on the road. Ole Miss which is relying heavily on the running game 65% of their play calls are runs struggled on the road running the ball 3.63 ypc compared to 5.84 at home. Their QB play as a result struggled last year on the road with a 40 p...
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Oct 22, 2022
Freddy Wills
Oklahoma State +6 2.2% play
Spencer Sanders is a go, and the fact that there will be 20mph winds actually gives Oklahoma State +6 more value as the total has come down 5-6 points but the spread has moved in favor of Texas from 3 to 6. Texas has looked great, but are we giving them too much credit already for their close win to Alabama and their blowout of a very bad Oklahoma team? We ...
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Oct 22, 2022
Freddy Wills
Oregon -6.5 1.1% Free Play
UCLA is the public dog of the week getting 70%+ of the action yet Oregon is a big favorite here at home where they have been dominant. Perhaps it’s the weather, perhaps it’s the strength of schedule UCLA has faced, or their first true road game or the fact that their defense has some red flags. This line seems a bit weird, and Bo Nix is playing g...
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Oct 22, 2022
Freddy Wills
Boise State +8.5 / Texas Tech pk 2.2% Teaser of the week
Boise has played much better since replacing their QB with Taylen Green, and both teams ruun the ball first now with running QBs but Boise is the better rushing offense and rushing defense. They're on the road here, but this should be a tight game making getting this up over 3, and 7 a huge deal.
Texas Tech is the better team than We...
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Oct 22, 2022
Freddy Wills
Wisconsin -120 3% play
I think we are getting excellent value here on Wisconsin after a looss coming back home. Purdue is having a great season, but they have been owned by Wisconsin going 0-15 SU and 3-12 ATS thier last 15 meetings with the Badgers. Purdue at the end of the day remains a one dimensional offense, and defensively they are strong against the run, but Wisconsin is actua...
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