Nov 05, 2022
Freddy Wills
Memphis +3.5 5.5% NCAAF POD
Memphis off the bye and Cincinnati in a huge sandwich spot after their huge victory over Cincinnati in what was a very physical game. I felt Cinci’s game plan lacked a bit on offense and they should have thrown the ball to attack the weakness of UCF’s defense, which is their pass coverage. UCF has Tulane the top ranked team in the AAC up next.&n...
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Nov 05, 2022
Freddy Wills
Tennnessee Vols +8 3.3% play
It’s clear that Tennessee’s defense has improved from last year, and Georgia’s defense has taken a small step back that has gone really unnoticed to this point. Josh Heupel’s offenses have had success against Kirby Smart’s defenses in the past putting up 27 points in 2016 at Missouri, and 28 in 2017, and while Tennessee only scored ...
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Nov 05, 2022
Freddy Wills
Iowa State -1 / Kansas State +8.5 3.3% teaser of the week!
We bet West Virginia +7.5 last week against TCU and it was a brutal loss ATS, with a hail mary at the end to beat us despite TCU already having a 3 point lead. Honestly, West Virginia played worse than I thought and it was against a bad defense. West Virginia is a horrible road team, and while Iowa State has not been able to g...
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Nov 05, 2022
Freddy Wills
Georgia Tech + 3.5 3.3%
Georgia Tech has faced the far tougher schedule with Clemson, Ole Miss, and UCF in their non-conference compared to Virginia Tech’s Old Dominion, and West Virginia. All 7 of Georgia Tech’s opponents are + in yards per play differential for an average +0.91, while Virginia Tech’s opponents are on average -.31. With that said the statistical pro...
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Nov 05, 2022
Freddy Wills
Army / Air Force Under 40.5 2.2% play
Might come back and play this over, but this spread is only going to drop. ...
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Nov 05, 2022
Freddy Wills
Iowa +4.5 2.2% play
The weather is definitely not favoring Purdue in this one with 23mph winds, and 40 mph gusts and a 40% chance of rain for a pass first offense. Iowa has struggled against Jeff Brohm who is 4-1 straight up and 5-0 ATS, but the average spread in those 5 meetings have been Iowa -7, and now Iowa is the dog of greater than a field goal. This is the role I love ...
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Nov 05, 2022
Freddy Wills
Texas AM -3 3.3% play
This is a huge must win game for the Aggies if they want to get to a bowl game. This is only Florida’s second true road game of the season and they have lost their last 5 SEC road games. I think the Aggies found something in their 5* freshman QB who had 338 passing yards against Ole Miss last week in their 28-31 loss. He should have more success this ...
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Nov 05, 2022
Freddy Wills
Maryland / Wisconsin Under 49 2.2% play
There are some 49.5 out there if you shop, but using the books I utilize I only have a 49. This play is based on the weather report of 20mph winds with 50mph gusts, which will impact both teams ability to throw the ball. Expect a conservative game plan, and both defenses are top 30 against the run, which I'm expecting much more of in this game.&...
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Nov 05, 2022
Freddy Wills
LSU +14 -120 BUY 1/2 1.2% PLAY
I feel this spread is a bit inflated for Saban off a bye, and Saban's dominance in his two games against Brian Kelly at Notre Dame. Brian Kelly has much more talent here at LSU, and LSU should be motivated with the SEC West on the line. I like how LSU has gotten better ast he season has gone along. Alabama lacks the explosive receivers they had last year...
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Nov 04, 2022
Freddy Wills
Oregon State +4.5 3.3% play
Oregon State has not been a good road team of late, but I think tha'ts why we are getting +4.5, and the bye definitely helps with traveling on the road, and they are helped by the fact that Jonathan Smith their HC is familiar with Washington as he coached here. The Beavers are also 8-2 ATS in their last 10 trips. Oregon State upset Utah last year off their...
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Nov 03, 2022
Freddy Wills
App STate -3 2.2% play
Huge strength of schedule discrepancy here as App State's top 3 oppnents are better than any of Coastal's opponents. Coastal also only played 1 opponent with a +ypp differential and got beat 21-49 at home to Old Dominion who is +0.3 with an average opponent ypp diff of -0.15. App State is also +0.3, but vs. an average opponent +0.17. App State has a head s...
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Oct 31, 2022
Freddy Wills
Bengals -3 -120 2.5% play ...
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Oct 30, 2022
Freddy Wills
Seahawks -3 5.5% MAX NFL POD...
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Oct 30, 2022
Freddy Wills
Patriots -125 3.5% play ...
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Oct 30, 2022
Freddy Wills
Steelers +10.5 1.1% Free Play **78-50 +$41,377 L 128 free NFL picks...
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Oct 30, 2022
Freddy Wills
Panthers +4 2.2% play ...
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Oct 30, 2022
Freddy Wills
Vikings/Cardinals Under 1st Half 24 2.2% play ...
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Oct 30, 2022
Freddy Wills
Dolphins / Lions Over 51.5 2.2 %play ...
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Oct 30, 2022
Freddy Wills
Broncos +8 / Commanders +9 3.3% NFL teaser...
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Oct 29, 2022
Freddy Wills
Kentucky +3.5 2nd half...
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Oct 29, 2022
Freddy Wills
Pitt +3 5.5% NCAAF POD
I have to put last week’s Pitt game behind me as it was our top play, and it’s usually a little difficult for me to get back to the window after a team burned me like Pitt did coming with 4 to’s at Louisville in my biggest play of the week, but not getting to the window the next week is a little square so here we are in a match up I like even more. 2...
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Oct 29, 2022
Freddy Wills
UAB -4.5 2.2% PLAY
Straight fade of FAU who is now 9-18-1 ATS under Willie Taggart. UAB could be without their starting QB here, but that won't matter as they run the ball 66% of the time rank 7th in ypc, going up against FAU who is 109th in ypc defense. This play is more about the fact that FAU struggles when they face good defenses. UAB ranks 27th in ypp defense while FAU ranks 69th...
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Oct 29, 2022
Freddy Wills
Texas A&M +8 / Baylor +8.5 2.2% teaser
Ole Miss exposed a bit in the second half on the road at LSU as the LSU defense dominated, and I think we see more of that from the Aggies defense at home in a bit of a desperate spot. This is still a night game at Kyle Field, and the Aggies hold a very good home field. Jimbo Fisher typically bounces back and wins a game with his back agains...
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Oct 29, 2022
Freddy Wills
Missouri +3.5 3.3% play
This will be a tight game in my opinion as Missouri is a top 20 defense ranking top 20 vs. the run and vs. the pass. I don’t see how South Carolina gets points here to cover the spread as their offense is pretty bad and Spencer Rattler has been very underwhelming. Missouri should have won at Florida, should have won at Auburn, and gave Georgia a dog fight...
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Oct 29, 2022
Freddy Wills
Nebraska +7.5 2.2% play
I think this is nice spot for Nebraska who seemed to get a nice bump after their bye a few weeks ago, and here are getting another bye, meanwhile Illinois in a flat spot after 3 weeks in a row against tough opponents, Wisconsin, Iowa and Minnesota, where they were dogs in 2 of the 3. This is also Illinois 3rd road game of the year, and they lost earlier against India...
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