Nov 28, 2020 Freddy Wills
Hawaii +7.5 2.2% play 78% of the tickets and 82% of the money on Nevada. It's just not that easy. I don’t know a sharp or expert that has not picked Nevada to cover the spread. I’m really not sure who Nevada has beaten to get this much respect. The offenses this season that Nevada has faced rank on average 89.6 in yards per play. They faced Wyoming, UNLV,Nov 28, 2020 Freddy Wills
LSU/TXAM Under 62 2.2% playNov 28, 2020 Freddy Wills
Kansas State +6 3.3% play These two teams are about even. Baylor -0.3 yards per play differential against an opponent YPP differential of -0.1, and Kansas State has identical numbers. Kansas State off the thumping by Iowa State to the tune of 45-0, and that has many questioning if Kansas State has given up on the season. I see an opportunity as we are clearly getting line valueNov 28, 2020 Freddy Wills
Northwestern -8 2nd halfNov 28, 2020 Freddy Wills
Auburn +24.5 2.2% play No Nick Saban, no Jalen Waddle, and I get Bo Nix has to go on the road where he has not been good and Alabama supposedly has revenge from last year's game, but I still expect this to be closer than the experts think. Auburn's finding offensive balance, and I don't think Alabama's defense is as good as it has shown recentlyk, which I feel is giving us some value in theNov 28, 2020 Freddy Wills
Clemson -22.5 1.1% Free Play Pitt is a very confident bunch, and their 41-17 win over FSU, and 47-14 win over Virginia Tech should have Clemson’s attention. Clemson has not played in 3 weeks, and I expect a pissed off team that can’t wait to get on the field. It may not be great early because of rust as Trevor Lawrence has not played in over a month, but I think Pitt&rsquoNov 28, 2020 Freddy Wills
Georgia Southern -1 2.2% play Georgia Southern’s losses have come against Lafayette, Coastal, and Army all on the road. They should have beaten Army, as they blew a 21-7 lead, and ran the ball to run out the clock losing to Army by 1 point. I think they bounce back here against Georgia State who they have dominated. Georgia State also lost to Coastal and Lafayette by bigger marNov 28, 2020 Freddy Wills
Penn State / Michigan Over 57.5 2.2% play Penn State ranks 2nd in the nation in plays per game, and Michigan’s defense clearly not what it once was giving up 36 points per game on the season, while scoring 30. Penn State is 0-5, and their defense has given up 30 points in every game this season, which I don’t anticipate will stop now, when they are 0-5 and have literally nothingNov 28, 2020 Freddy Wills
San Jose State +11.5 3.3% play This is a relatively big game for the Mountain West as the winner has a route to the Conference Championship. There is some value in this number in my opinion when you consider San Jose State has the better statistics, and both teams do not like to run a lot of plays, ranking 112th and 119th in plays per game, which means this game should be shortened.Nov 27, 2020 Freddy Wills
Stanford -105 3% play Stanford seems to be the better team here in my opinion with small sample size. Both have played two games, and STanford was without their starting QB Davis Mills vs. Oregon as well as their best cover corner Kyu Blu Kelly, which really hurt them in that game. For that reason I think Stanford's #'s could be a bit better, but one thing is clear they have faced theNov 27, 2020 Freddy Wills
Notre Dame -5.5 3.3% play First of all lets talk motivation. This game matters to Notre Dame, because if they win it and win it in convincing fashion they could/should still make the college football playoff no matter what happens against Clemson. I wanted to take the over here, but Notre Dame lost their Center Jarrett Patterson for the rest of the season, and they will be without startinNov 27, 2020 Freddy Wills
Nebraska +14 2.2% play Still some 14's out there, and if your book allows you to buy a 1/2 point I think it's worth it to get it to -125. I also love that over 80% of the early money is on IOwa yet we haven't seen this # jump to 14.5 or higher. Offesnively these two teams are nearly identical when it comes to success rate, and yards per play, but the biggest difference is Nebraska, which rNov 27, 2020 Freddy Wills
Texas +1 3.3% play Texas is 2 plays away from being undefeated, and I would argue that they have improved statistically more from last year to this year than Iowa State. Overall teams are pretty even and we are getting Texas as a slight dog at home, on senior day, Sam Ehlinger’s last home game, with Big 12 Championship trip on the line for both teams. Texas fully rested here wiNov 26, 2020 Freddy Wills
Lions +3 2.2% playNov 22, 2020 Freddy Wills
Raiders +7.5 3.3% playNov 22, 2020 Freddy Wills
Packers / Colts Over 51 3.3% playNov 22, 2020 Freddy Wills
Eagles +8.5 / Bengals +7.5 4.4% NFL TeaserNov 22, 2020 Freddy Wills
Titans +6 1.1% Free PlayNov 22, 2020 Freddy Wills
Bengals / Redskins Over 47 2.2% playNov 22, 2020 Freddy Wills
Jaguars +10.5 2.2% playNov 21, 2020 Freddy Wills
Auburn -11 1.1% Free Play We backed Auburn a few weeks back when they beat LSU as a home dog, and did so convincingly. They are home again against a Tennessee team that is free falling. Tennessee’s coaching staff is a mess, and Jeremy Pruitt is starting to look worse and worse. Their last 4 games has seen them get outscored 88-7 in the second half. They rank 111thNov 21, 2020 Freddy Wills
Oklahoma -7 3.3% 62% of the action here on Oklahoma State as the away dog, public dog, and I’m going to fade that for several reasons. Oklahoma State has faced one team in the top 60 in success rate offense, and Oklahoma is quietly doing it on offense and defense ranking top 25 in both. Oklahoma State is banged up here, and I think both Chubba Hubbard and Tylan Wallace go, but tNov 21, 2020 Freddy Wills
Missouri / South Carolina Over 57 2.2% Will Muschamp gets fired, and two of South Carolina’s best defensive players in their secondary leave the team. The defense has plenty of injuries and with players leaving the team I don’t see how they can get up for this game. Mike Bobo the offensive coordinator takes over as head coach, and he’s a guy that likes to throwNov 21, 2020 Freddy Wills
Northwestern +7.5 3.3% play Wisconsin is getting nearly 70% of the money early on, and what do we really know about this team? They have blown out two very bad teams, and they are getting ton of credit here as they go up against a team that is undefeated that plays great defense. Wisconsin beat a very bad Illinois team, and the beat down on Michigan last week, which has this line inflNov 21, 2020 Freddy Wills
Arkansas +8.5 / Penn State +8.5 3.3% play ARKANSAS - I’m not buying the line move here in favor of LSU getting nearly 70% of the money taking them from a dog +1 to a -2.5 favorite. I’ll fade that steam and take a look at Arkansas here. LSU has had 3 weeks off due to game cancelations, and while it seems many are speculating that it’s a good thing, I actually thi
