Nov 11, 2017 Freddy Wills
Michigan -16.5 2.2% play Maryland could be down to their 4th string QB here, but even if they aren't they have really struggled offensively against good defenses. They are ranked 115th in passing yards, and 56th rushing. However, when they don't rush for 150 yards they have averaged only 14.5 points. They lost those 4 games by an average of 29.25 points per game. Here they fNov 11, 2017 Freddy Wills
Auburn +120 3% Play I like this match-up for Auburn at home. Their two losses were in games where they struggled to protect their QB. LSU ranks #6 in sack % and Clemson ranks #2. Georgia has a great pass defense ranking #3 overall, but they haven't faced any good passing offenses and come in ranking #76 at getting to the QB. They have faced 1 team in the top 57 in QB rNov 11, 2017 Freddy Wills
Duke -2.5 3.3% play Duke with an extra week to prepare always plays the option well. Army is off a huge win over Air Force 21-0 where they did not have to attempt a pass. Army really only cares about their last game of the season now when they face Navy having already accepted their bowl invitation to the Armed Forces Bowl in Fort Worth. Duke is used to defending the triple option as they plNov 10, 2017 Freddy Wills
Washington/Stanford Under 48.5 1.1% PlayMy numbers favor Washington, but Stanford is a tough team to go against at home as a dog. They are 7-0 ATS the last 7 times as a home dog with 6 outright upsets and 3 times they were featured against a top 10 team like they are tonight. However, Stanford's most glaring weakness (run defense) is Washington's biggest strength. At the end of tNov 09, 2017 Freddy Wills
Appalachian State -17.5 2.2% play I believe there is value in this line with an angry Appalachian State team heading home after two straight losses. App State got their star running back, back last game as he ran for 114 yards on 21 carries. When he's healthy and averages over 5 yards per carry this team has scored 54, 45, and 45 points. He had 8.4 yards per carry against Georgia Southern lasNov 08, 2017 Freddy Wills
Eastern Mich / Central Mich Under 50.5 2.2% play Eastern Michigan has had a bit of a tougher schedule and have lost a lot of close games. I initially leaned with them, but after looking at it more I noticed Central Michigan far more dominant passing and defending the pass vs. the 4 common opponents. Central Michigan faced 3 of 4 of those opponents on the road while Eastern Michigan faced 3 ofNov 08, 2017 Freddy Wills
One key of my handicapping is taking my computer ratings and which ones predict under dogs to win outright. I take that list of 20-25 teams, and those are the games I break down in greater detail. Here is my computer line compared to Vegas line in some of the key games for week #11.Washington @ Stanford (Vegas Lines -6, My Computer -6.5) slight value to Washington.Michigan @ Maryland (Nov 07, 2017 Freddy Wills
php_snippet_podcastforever Last week my favorite podcast leans went 6-2 ATS. Unfortunately only 4 made it onto my card and I went 2-2 ATS for those. We went 5-5 ATS and move to 48-52 ATS -36% ROI. Still confident we will show a profit by the end of the year. Last year from November 3rd on we had a 44.36% ROI to put things in perspective. Our Friday commute podcast was a dud again this week asNov 06, 2017 Freddy Wills
Packers +115 3% playNov 05, 2017 Freddy Wills
49ERS +8.5 / CHIEFS +8.5 3.3% PLAYNov 05, 2017 Freddy Wills
Titans -3.5 5.5% NFL PODNov 05, 2017 Freddy Wills
Colts +7 -115 3.3% playNov 05, 2017 Freddy Wills
Broncos +7 3.3% playNov 04, 2017 Freddy Wills
Texas +235 3% play TCU's bubble got burst last week as they lost an ugly game at Iowa State 14-7 without scoring an offensive TD. TCU's QB Kenny Hill turned the ball over twice inside Iowa State's 10 yard line and his confidence has to be shaken. Last year he had a bad game at Kansas of all places throwing 1 TD and 3 INT's in a 1 point victory. TCU then went 2-4 the rest of the way as he threNov 04, 2017 Freddy Wills
California -1 / UTSA -1 4.4% TeaserCal - is in a good spot needing a win to have a shot to go to a bowl game playing an Oregon State team that has played well the last two weeks, but have done so at home. Since firing their coach they have played extremely well, but they nearly beat Stanford at home in a weird spot and Stanford was playing without their star player Bryce Love. The weirNov 04, 2017 Freddy Wills
Oklahoma +105 5.5% play of the day This is by far the best offense that Oklahoma State has faced. Baker Mayfield is a beat with his 23 passing TD's and just 3 INT's and I love how fiery he is in games. He really gets his team fired up. IT was obviously when they went on the road and defeated Ohio State that they were the better team in that game. I just think this team loses focus at times aNov 04, 2017 Freddy Wills
West Virginia -3 -1.05 4.5% play Iowa State going on the road after 4 weeks in a row of covering the spread by 14+ points. It's rare that you see a top 15 team going on the road facing a team that is not ranked and they are under dogs, but we have that here with Iowa State and for good reason. Iowa State is one dimensional offensively and have struggled to get the running game going all yearNov 04, 2017 Freddy Wills
Uconn +24 2.2% play / Uconn +1420 0.25% South Florida's bubble got burst last week and I have been saying for weeks they were a vulnerable team. This is the third week in a row we are fading South Florida and why not we are 2-0 ATS in doing so. This is a team that is not nearly as good as last year offensively where they are one dimensional. South Florida's defense has played well and carriedNov 04, 2017 Freddy Wills
Vanderbilt -10.5 1.1% Free Play I've been looking for opportunities to fade Western Kentucky who has Marshall on deck. Vanderbilt has been in a brutal stretch of SEC games and this is a major step down in strength of schedule. Western Kentucky is not even close to the same team as last year, and their offense is going to struggle here. Vanderbilt's offense is actually playing very well and uNov 04, 2017 Freddy Wills
Florida +140 3% play Missouri is a different team against non-power 5 opponents. Over the past two years they have averaged 63 points per game against non-power 5 opponents. Then they play a power 5 team and only average 20 points per game. Drew Lock, the Missouri QB playing with a ton of confidence right know but he's going to face off against a Florida team that will be defensive minded wiNov 04, 2017 Freddy Wills
Indiana +14 3.3% play +420 1% play There is value in this line because Indiana lost at Maryland last week. Indiana actually outgained Maryland 483-345 and had 35 first downs to 18. The good news is Indiana's defense was only on the field for 18 plays which is the key to upsetting Wisconsin this week which I do feel like they have a shot. Indiana has been close a few times this season. Even tNov 03, 2017 Freddy Wills
Utah -6.5 3.3% play Utah has to get back on track after four straight losses. They actually lost ATS by 30 and 23 points and Vegas has had to make an adjustment. Actually teams that have not covered the spread in back to back weeks by 14+ points (2TD's) have gone 8-2 ATS that third week. This team is much better than they have played of late after nearly beating Stanford and USC they have hadNov 02, 2017 Freddy Wills
Northern Illinois +8.5 4.4% POD Northern Illinois has faced 5 top 76 teams compared to Toledo's 2. They both fared similarly against Eastern Michigan at home, and overall I would say these two teams are about even with their strengths and weaknesses. I'd say the biggest advantage in this game is Northern Illinois rushing offense against Toledo's rushing defense which ranks 104th. Northern IllOct 30, 2017 Freddy Wills
I appreciate everyone that has believed in me. Thank you for sticking with me. It's been a while since we have had this much bad luck in a week. Let's clear the air. I'm not making excuses and my Friday Podcast play on Florida State was just atrocious as Boston College not Florida State not only covered the spread but did so by 38 points! It was the start to a 3-4-1 ATS weekend. Good news isOct 29, 2017 Freddy Wills
Lions +3 5.5% NFL POD AT +100
