Sep 25, 2020
Freddy Wills
MTSU +7 -125 2% PLAY BUY THE HOOK
Buy low sell high situation with Middle Tennessee here and UTSA who is off to a 2-0 start. I think this line would have been MTSU -2.5 before the season. Middle Tenn has looked awful in the early going against a far tougher schedule than UTSA has faced. Middle Tenn had 9 returning starters and the offense has not showed up yet, but I feel confid...
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Sep 24, 2020
Freddy Wills
Dolphins +3 2.2% play
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Sep 20, 2020
Freddy Wills
Texans +7.5 -120 3.5% play ...
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Sep 20, 2020
Freddy Wills
Colts -3 -115 5.5% NFL POD ...
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Sep 20, 2020
Freddy Wills
Eagles -120 3% play ...
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Sep 20, 2020
Freddy Wills
Bills / Dolphins Over 42 2.2% play ...
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Sep 20, 2020
Freddy Wills
Falcons +3.5 1.1% Free Play ...
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Sep 20, 2020
Freddy Wills
Steelers -0.5 / Cardinals -1 3.3% play...
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Sep 19, 2020
Freddy Wills
Louisville -130 3% play
Louisville to me was more impressive in their win over a C-USA opponent than Miami was, and Miami has to travel here. I get Miami has D'Eriq King, and Miami is getting a lot of hype now, but there are still a lot of questions for Manny Diaz and if he can be an average coach. Scott Satterfeld, has more head coaching experience at this point, and in my opin...
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Sep 19, 2020
Freddy Wills
Georgia Tech +7.5 2.2% play
Normally you'd want ot fade a team after a double digit upset on the road, but here we have a unique situation with Georgia Tech returning home, and is over a TD under dog against a non-power 5 team. I think it certainly catches their attention, and I believe they played better than the final score indicated against Florida State. Meanwhile, you have UCF wh...
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Sep 19, 2020
Freddy Wills
Middle Tennessee +125 2.5% Dog of the Week
Troy has a lot of weapons back on offense, but there are a few things brewing here. They have to break in a new QB, it is their first game of the season, after a non-typical year for practice and preparation. I expect some issues leading to turnovers.
On the flip side Middle Tennessee got to play, albeit against a non-schedule game against Army, w...
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Sep 19, 2020
Freddy Wills
Liberty +14.5 1.1% Free Play
Nearly 70% of the tickets and 80% of the money has rained in on Western Kentucky, and this line has gone over the key number of 14.5. I really do not understand it, and I'm fading the steam here. To me Western Kentucky does not deserve to be a double digit favorite, and their game where they nearly covered the spread against Louisvile a week ago was comple...
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Sep 17, 2020
Freddy Wills
Browns -6 2.2% play...
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Sep 14, 2020
Freddy Wills
Broncos +3 +100 2% play
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Sep 13, 2020
Freddy Wills
Rams/Cowboys O51.5 2.2% play ...
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Sep 13, 2020
Freddy Wills
Chargers -145 3% play ...
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Sep 13, 2020
Freddy Wills
Falcons +1 4.4% NFL POD ...
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Sep 13, 2020
Freddy Wills
Packers +8.5 / 49ers -0.5 3.3% Teaser...
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Sep 13, 2020
Freddy Wills
Washington Football Team +6 1.1% Free Play ...
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Sep 12, 2020
Freddy Wills
Clemson Tigers -33.5 1.1% Free Play
I don't normally play huge favorites like this on the road, but my formulas do like the scenario with a 23-8 ATS Record over the last 11 years.
Wake Forest will have no fans for this game, and for the entire month of September. They have a ton of players to replace at the skill positions on offense with just 2 returning starters, and ...
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Sep 12, 2020
Freddy Wills
Duke / Notre Dame U53.5 2.2% play
I believe this game gets slowed down quite a bit for a few different reasons. Duke's head coach David Cutcliffe will take over play calling duties and he's been adamant about getting back to running the ball, playing Duke football. They also bring in Chase Brice to play QB from Clemson, and I think that fits the game plan here. Duke's defe...
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Sep 12, 2020
Freddy Wills
Arkansas State +13 2.2% Play
This line opened up at +10 and has steamed to +13, and I'm going to fade that 3 point line move and come in on the dog. If you fade steam moves of 2+ points in week 1 over the last 3 years, you would go 58% ATS, 69-50! We are getting line value in the number.
Also, Kanasas State's 0 spring practices, breaking in a completely new offensive line, and ...
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Sep 11, 2020
Freddy Wills
Georgia Tech +13 3.3% play
28% of the money on Georgia Tech, and I don't think we will see a +14 with the line flirting with going back down, so I'm going to hop on the +13 while I can. This is a fade on Florida State, who I don't think should be a double digit favorite in this game. FSU, had limited number of practices, and some issues internally over the summer. Mike Norvell w...
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Sep 10, 2020
Freddy Wills
Miami / UAB Under 54.5pts 2.2% play
If these two teams played last year this total would be considerably lower. The total opened up at 47, and has moved over a TD, and I'm going to fade the steam here for a couple of reasons. We have two teams that had top 30 defenses last year, and I believe the total is being inflated because of the way UAB's defense looked on paper last week. ...
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Sep 08, 2020
Freddy Wills
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2020 Power 5 Coaching Changes
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