Dec 30, 2017 Freddy Wills
A match-up between the Big 12 and the SEC will prove a lot moving forward. Is the SEC still alive and dominant or is there more parity in college football?Dec 30, 2017 Freddy Wills
Here is a look at the Clemson vs. Alabama match-up for this year's college football playoff from a stat and strength of schedule perspective.Dec 29, 2017 Freddy Wills
USC / Ohio State Over 64.5 3.3% PLAY / USC +8 2.2% PLAYBoth teams rank in the top 15 in explosive plays and both offensive strengths are their opponents defensive weaknesses. USC gave up 49 and 35 points the two times they faced a good running team who also had a good running QB. Ohio State has averaged 53 points per game when they don't face a top 50 run defense. Ohio State hasDec 29, 2017 Freddy Wills
Arizona State +7 3.3% play We have a unique situation with a coach being fired and sticking around for the bowl game to coach while the new coach is out recruiting. Originally I thought that might be a nightmare of a situation, but the more I am reading the more I am understanding that Todd Graham is respected around this program. He has recruited all of these players who are a tiDec 29, 2017 Freddy Wills
Wake Forest -3 5.5% POD This game is being played at BOA in Charlotte which gives Wake Forest a home field advantage. I also think there is a lot of value here with Wake Forest who had better results and faced a tougher schedule. On average they ranked #41.2 facing an average opponent ranking #56.1, while Texas A&m ranked #71 facing an average opponent ranking #59.7. A&M went 1-4 agDec 28, 2017 Freddy Wills
Michigan State -1.5 5.5% PODThis Michigan State team has a huge chip on their shoulder as they feel slighted for not being picked for the New Year's Day Outback Bowl. instead their rival who they beat, Michigan was chosen. I think they will give it their best to win and dominate this game and I think they can over a Washington team that has plenty of holes.First of all we need to bringDec 28, 2017 Freddy Wills
Stanford +140 3.5% play I like Stanford in this spot with David Shaw in the under dog role he is 11-3-1 ATS lifetime with 10 outright upsets. Stanford has also played the tougher schedule according to S&P, and they played their best football down the stretch. Even their defense picked up down the stretch and I think they match up well here in this game against TCU who is a borDec 28, 2017 Freddy Wills
Oklahoma State -5.5 3.3% play This is a bit of a square play for me, but I have said all along that I thought the Big 12 was a bit better than the ACC from top to bottom. This to me is a bad match-up for Virginia Tech. Oklahoma State is a balanced offense that probably would have better numbers had their offensive line not been banged up in the middle of the season. Virginia Tech leans on theDec 28, 2017 Freddy Wills
Virginia -1 4.4% play I really like this match-up for Virginia in their first bowl appearance in 6 years. If this wasn't being played on Navy's home field this might be a max POD. Nonetheless, Virginia is about 150 miles away and should still have plenty of fans in the stands to balance it out a bit. The ACC went 3-0 vs. the AAC this year outscoring them by 30 points. Wake Forest (ACC) alsoDec 28, 2017 Freddy Wills
College Bowl PredictionsDec 27, 2017 Freddy Wills
Texas +130 3% playTom Herman as an under dog is a profitable bet going 9-1 ATS with 6 outright upsets. We backed him and Texas on several occasions this year in this very role. Tom Herman is building a winning program here at Texas, and the defense was the story in 2017 ranking 5th vs. the run, and 51st vs. the pass in a very talented QB conference in the Big 12. Texas went up against 4 QB's thDec 27, 2017 Freddy Wills
Purdue +142 5.5% POD Coaching edge to Jeff Brohm here as Rich Rodriguez has a 2-8 ATS bowl record, but for some reason Arizona is favored probably because of Khalil Tate. This offense reminds me of the offenses that Rodriguez had at Michigan with Denard Robinson which you can easily scheme for. If you can stop the run you should win the game and perhaps even dominate. The other thing to conDec 27, 2017 Freddy Wills
Southern Miss +15.5 2.2% How can Florida State be a 17 point favorite right now with that offense, an interim coach, and a thinning roster playing without their best defensive player Derwin James. Many will point to their last game against LA Monroe to end the season as they won 42-10, but LA Monroe ranked 128th in YPP defense while Southern Miss ranks #31. Let's also talk about Conference USDec 26, 2017 Freddy Wills
Kansas State -6.5 1.1% Free PlayThere is really only one way to go with this game. Kansas State or nothing. I would have been more comfortable taking this at -2.5 before they announced Josh Rosen out, but I still feel like we have tremendous value here.First of all I think the Big 12 is better than the PAC 12 this year. They do play similar football, but there have been signs thaDec 26, 2017 Freddy Wills
Utah -6.5 2.2% playEven though we are playing a premium to back Utah and Kyle Whittingham who is 10-1 in bowl games I am fine doing so. Mainly, because it's just a bad match-up for West Virginia who is playing without their QB Will Grier. There is a big drop off in my opinion with Chris Chugunov. They will also be playing without two offensive line man and RB Justin Crawford whoDec 25, 2017 Freddy Wills
Raiders/Eagles Under 47 3.3% playDec 24, 2017 Freddy Wills
Fresno/Houston U49 3.3% playThere is a lot to like about both of these teams. I feel the spread is a bit more unpredictable because we don't know what we will get from Houston who has not made this trip before. Fresno already made this trip, and to make matters worse for Houston they lost their offensive coordinator to Florida. Their HC Applewhite will be making the calls, whichDec 24, 2017 Freddy Wills
Cowboys/Seahawks Over 46.5 3.3% playDec 24, 2017 Freddy Wills
49ers +4.5 5.5% PODDec 24, 2017 Freddy Wills
Browns +200 2% playDec 24, 2017 Freddy Wills
Titans +6 3.3% playDec 24, 2017 Freddy Wills
Falcons +5.5 2.2% playDec 23, 2017 Freddy Wills
Off to a very bad start this week. Last night we lost the starting QB from FIU on the first series, and UAB looks like hot garbage, but confident a hot streak is on the horizon.San Diego State -6.5 3.3% play As you are all aware I'm a big Army supporter, and had them the last two years on the money line as max plays over Navy. This is just a bad match-up for Army in my opinion.&nbDec 23, 2017 Freddy Wills
Texas Tech +135 3% play There is a big difference in strength of schedules here, and the Big 12 has dominated the AAC this year going 5-0 and winning on average by 27.2 points per game. Texas Tech actually defeated AAC Houston earlier in this year on the road while South Florida lost to them at home. I think there is certainly value here with Texas Tech who played a more difficultDec 22, 2017 Freddy Wills
Central Michigan +3.5 5.5% POD This game is at elevation in Idaho which favors Wyoming who is used to playing in it, but in a match-up like this where the defenses should dominate I don't anticipate elevation playing too big of a factor, but we could have snow. The winds won't be too crazy so I don't anticipate the offenses being impacted too much. When we look at Wyoming they are getting too
