Sep 07, 2019 Freddy Wills
Baylor/UTSA Over 57.5 2.2% play This game is taking place in 102 degree heat, and I think both teams will struggle on defense given the fact that they have stronger offenses at this point in time. Baylor even under Matt Rhule continues to run a lot of plays per game and ranked 7th last year at 80 per game. Their offense should improve yet again as they return 8 offensive startersSep 07, 2019 Freddy Wills
Connecticut +21.5 1.1% I think we are just getting too much value with Uconn here with Illinois in their largest road favorite role since 1991. It's for good reason as Uconn was awful last year, and average 50+ppg allowed, but honestly they started 8 freshman in one game on defense. Those guys are back with 10 on that side and this is Randy Edsall's third year, and I think we should start toSep 07, 2019 Freddy Wills
West Virginia +14 2.2% PLAY This is a lot of points for MIssouri, who played really sloppy last week losing to Wyoming with 3 turnovers, while giving up 297 yards on the ground and 7 yards per carry. West Virginia returns a trio of RB's who combined for 1871 yards last year, and they bring in an excellent coach in Neal Brown from Troy. Neal Brown at Troy the last three years, beat Nebraska onSep 07, 2019 Freddy Wills
Syracuse +1.5 2.2% PLAY Syracuse is the better team, and they have the better coach. This line has moved 4 points or so since opening, and it's because of Maryland's 79-0 thrashing of Howard, and the fact that Syracuse has Clemson on deck, but I'm siding with Syracuse whose strength really translates on the road. Syracuse defense was elite against LIberty, who has players, and they got the ruSep 07, 2019 Freddy Wills
Pitt -4 2.2% play We backed Pitt in a teaser last week and I still feel like it was the right side getting 9 points of line movement. This week we will back them on the side, as we are getting 2.5 points of line value from the 6.5 at open. It's also very weird to see 67% of the action on Ohio in money, but the line has gone the other way. Pitt lost the game 30-14, but all 3 of VirginiaSep 06, 2019 Freddy Wills
Marshall +13 2.2% playI still like this at 12 or 12.5. 13's are starting to pop, and I'm grabbing it, but expect more books to go to 13 at some point.I think we are getting some line value here with Marshall after Boise is sky high after a come from behind win at Florida State which saw their offense run 107 plays. The offense looked great, but they still averaged less than 6 yards per playSep 04, 2019 Freddy Wills
Recap of my week - 4-9 ATS on the season -16.4%. Had some bad beats I thought, and many of those losses that could have gone either way to be honest, but like we do every week we will go over the best pick, and worst pick, bad beat of the week. Best Pick Wisconsin -10.5 I got the best #, and my handicap seemed spot on as Wisconsin dominated winning 49-0. The defense seemed to be back givinSep 02, 2019 Freddy Wills
Louisville +19 2.2% play I think there is some value here on the home dog. Louisville quit on their coach last year, and now they bring in Scott Satterfield, who did great things at App State. Louisville returns 16 starters, and open up in a game against highly touted Notre Dame on national television. This is Notre Dame's largest road favorite role since 2000, and thought hAug 31, 2019 Freddy Wills
LA Tech +20.5 3.3% play Texas beat Georgia in their bowl game, but that was an unmotivated Georgia team, and Sam Ehlinger claimed Texas waas back, but this is one of the more overrated teams in college football if you ask me, and I love fading the pre-season AP Top 10 in the first few weeks of college football. Texas has just 8 returning starters, and lost their entire front 7, leading rusher,Aug 31, 2019 Freddy Wills
Coastal Carolina +6 4.4% NCAAF POD Eastern MIchigan has just 10 returning starters as they head out on the road as the MAC faces off against the Sun Belt. The Sun Belt has gone 12-9 against the MAC, but the battles have been pretty even. I have tremendous respect for Chis Creighton and what he's achieved here at Eastern Michigan, but with 10 returning starters I have questions. This team haAug 31, 2019 Freddy Wills
Duke +32.5 2.2% play I really think there is line value in this number. It's on a neutral field. Duke went on the road to play Clemson last year and they were 28 point dogs, which would suggest they would be +26.5 on a neutral against Clemson last year. They lost that game 35-6 so it's not the first time this team has had to go up against a giant like Alabama. This is the 8th season in a rAug 31, 2019 Freddy Wills
Pitt +8.5 & Florida State -0.5 Teaser of the Week - 42-28 +46.2% ROI Last 70 NCAAF Teasers Pitt +8.5 Virginia has more returning starters, and an under rated QB, but they are getting too much hype here in my opinion. Many are picking them to get to the ACC Championship, a game Pitt got to last year. Pitt does lose a lot on offense, 4 OL, 2 1,000 yard RB's, but they gain an excellen offensivAug 31, 2019 Freddy Wills
Howard +30 1.1% Free Play Howard upset UNLV as a huge favorite in 2017 with a very young squad that returned last year and did not have a great year. They have a new head coach with a ton of coaching experience, and a new DC which should help the struggling defense. This offense will be able to score points, with Cam Newton's younger brother playing QB. I think we will see a barn burner, andAug 31, 2019 Freddy Wills
East Carolina +17.5 3.3% PlayI think there is some value here in East Carolina who has been a cash burner the last 3 seasons under MOntgomery going 10-25 ATS. Mike Houston steps in after coaching JMU last year, and has good experienced, and played at NC State last year losing by only 11 points, and the game was closer than that. NC State only out gained them by 40 yards, and were unlucAug 30, 2019 Freddy Wills
Oregon State +13.5 2.2% play Oregon State is 19-3 all time in home openers, but this is obviously a step up in competition facing a Big 12 opponent. These two conferences have been pretty even over the years, and Oregon State is one of the PAC 12 teams I show as improving this year, especially ATS. Oklahoma State has just 12 returning starters, and I don't think they have a QB thaAug 30, 2019 Freddy Wills
Rutgers -16 2.2% playOkay so this play is not going to excite you by any means. Rutgers a 16 point favorite are you kidding me? This is the newsletter I signed up for? This is one of those ugly plays though, and I like it enough for a few different reasons. If you listened to my podcast earlier in the week you heard me talk about Umass and their coaching staff. Walt Bell taAug 30, 2019 Freddy Wills
Wisconsin -10.5 3.3% playThis line dropped 3 points in the last day or so making it a play for me. I was hoping to catch a 10, but that does not look like it will happen. I expect the line to move back up towards 13.5 by Friday night. I'm not at all concerned with the weather as this game figures to be a slower tempo game with these two head coaches, and it's supposed to be almost 10 degreesAug 29, 2019 Freddy Wills
Clemson/GTech Under 61 2.2% play I see value in tonight's under which I feel is inflated a bit. Georgia Tech is breaking in an entirely new offense, and going away from the spread, so I would honestly be shocked if they scored more than 10 points. I feel like Clemson will get out to a big lead and shut things down in the second half and get ready for their big game with Texas A&amAug 29, 2019 Freddy Wills
UCLA +3 4.4% NCAAF POD 3's popped up again at a few locations, and I'm going to grab the Bruins here. These two opened up the 2018 season @ UCLA, and the Bruins had hype with Chip Kelly taking over, and were 14 point favorites, and lost outright. I see a bit of revenge here for UCLA, and I don't really think that there is an 11 point difference between these two teams from last year. UCLA wasAug 27, 2019 Freddy Wills
When we look at the coaching changes in college football we are always looking towards what gives us betting value. In today's article we look at the non-power 5 coaching moves and a deep dive into what coaches do ATS over their first 3 seasons. We have a total of 13 new head coaches across the group of 5 teams, and gives us a lot to look at first year one. 1st Year Head Coach - ATS Over theAug 26, 2019 Freddy Wills
REMINDER ON FADING AP TOP 10- I had a podcast you can go back and listen to it, but basically taking out top tier coaches you do really well fading the preseason ap top 10. 60% ATS last year. The teams on my list this year are Ohio State, LSU, Michigan, Florida, Notre Dame and Texas as I mentioned in the podcast. These teams as home favorites only cover the spread 46% of the time over the laAug 26, 2019 Freddy Wills
MyBookie.Ag Online Betting Bonuses Use promo code: FREDDY for 100% bonus or click the banner below. Mybookie.ag is one of the newer brands out there, but it is reliable. I signed up and used them as one of my outs last year, because they had their version of the Las Vegas Super Contest for only $100 you get a shot at winning $100,000. For that reason along it's worth signing up, and IAug 24, 2019 Freddy Wills
Miami +7.5 3.3% play Florida is off a 10 win season and getting plenty of hype ranking #8 in the AP polls, but return 13 starters compared to 19 a season ago. I see a lot of red flags with this team coming into the year. Also, teams in the AP TOP 10 don't particularly do well over the season, or over the first 3 games. In fact only 28 of the 70 teams over the last 7 years have had a winninAug 22, 2019 Freddy Wills
TCU Over 7.5 Wins +110 1% Play Gary Patterson is in his 19th year at TCU, and is coming off a season that featured a ton of injuries to the offense and defense, and they still finished 7-6 despite struggles from the offense, which were due to QB issues, and injuries to the offensive line, top QB, and WR. I think this TCU offense will be among the most improved offenses this year. The QB situatAug 21, 2019 Freddy Wills
Here is a look at the top ten college football teams according to pre-season AP poll for the 2019 college football season: The idea behind this theory is that we will catch betting value fading these teams, because the casual bettor is going to want to back them. The other idea is that the AP poll is not ranking these teams on a betting strength. Vegas will set numbers, and often disag
