Oct 30, 2021
Freddy Wills
Texas +3 -120 3.5% play
Baylor had all the momentum with back to back impressive wins over West Virginia and BYU, and that is not when you want to go on a bye. Texas off back to back losses and in a tough three game stretch having faced TCU, Oklahoma and Oklahoma St, and that’s the exact time you want to go on a bye.
On paper Baylor look sto have the better run offense and defense, b...
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Oct 30, 2021
Freddy Wills
Rutgers -120 3% play
This is about as poor of a situation as a team could be in with Illinois off a 9 OT game, and a huge upset over Penn State as a 24.5 point dog facing a team coming off a bye. I also like Rutgers in the match up as Rutgers ranks 25th in epa run defense, and that has come against an average opponent epa run offense ranking 47.8. All Illinois can do is run the ball, ...
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Oct 30, 2021
Freddy Wills
Iowa +3.5 1.1% Free Play
I feel like we are getting an extra point of value here. Iowa lost to Purdue, and Wisconsin beat Purdue so it seems so easy to just take Wisconsin here. I’m not going to over react to recency bias as Wisconsin has always dominated Purdue, and Purdue under Jeff Brohm has dominated Iowa. I’m sure if Purdue played Wisconsin first then Iowa...
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Oct 30, 2021
Freddy Wills
Indiana +175 2% play
Indiana is down to their 3rd string QB here and the line jumped 3 points, which I don’t think is warranted. Donaven McCulley will take over at QB, and he’s the #2 prospect out of the state of Indiana last year, a 4* QB with dual threat capability and is going to give this offense an added dimension offensively. Maryland in my opinion really does not d...
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Oct 28, 2021
Freddy Wills
Packers +7 -125 2.5% play ...
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Oct 28, 2021
Freddy Wills
South Florida +10 3.3% play
I'm not at all impressed with East Carolina's near upset over Houston last week in OT. Houston has played an average opp YPP differential of -0.9. Meanwhile South Florida has had a tough schedule having faced NC State, Florida, BYU And SMU all positive in YPP differential and ranked at one time or another. Houston also had SMU on deck that they were l...
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Oct 27, 2021
Freddy Wills
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Oct 25, 2021
Freddy Wills
Saints / Seahawks Under 21.5 -133 1st Half...
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Oct 24, 2021
Freddy Wills
Colts +4 5.5% NFL MAX POD
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Oct 24, 2021
Freddy Wills
Texans +17.5 1.1% Free Play
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Oct 24, 2021
Freddy Wills
Eagles +3 3.3% Play ...
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Oct 24, 2021
Freddy Wills
Bengals +6.5 3.3% play ...
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Oct 24, 2021
Freddy Wills
Dolphins +8.5 / Giants +8.5 3.3% NFL Teaser...
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Oct 23, 2021
Freddy Wills
NC State -3 3.3% play
I wanted to get out in front of this as it's going to go to -3.5 I believe. I faded Miami their last two games and I'm fading them again here. I just don't think Manny Diaz is a good coach, and now at 2-4. They're missing their QB King for the rest of the season, and their top two RB's and now go against arguably the best defense they have faced all year, a...
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Oct 23, 2021
Freddy Wills
GA Tech / Virginia Over 63 2.2% play
Both of these teams like to play fast at 23 seconds per snap. Virginia’s offense is all about the pass behind Brennan Armstrong and it’s a good match up as Georgia Techs’ defensive strength is against the run. They rank 6th in epa run defense, but 111th in epa pass defense. Their defensive strength is not going to help them ...
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Oct 23, 2021
Freddy Wills
West Virginia +4.5 3.3% play
It was clear to me that West Virginia was gassed 2 weeks ago before their bye. They had a challenging schedule and travel, and they just got their ass kicked by Baylor who surprised them with a lot of big plays in the passing game. The bye week came at a good time for this team to rest up and self scout, and I think they come out with their best game of th...
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Oct 23, 2021
Freddy Wills
LA Tech +6 2.2% Free Play
UTSA is #24 team ranked going on the road to play Louisiana Tech who lost this game on the road by 1 point. I think this is a good match up for Louisiana Tech’s offense, which relies on the passing attack, and that aligns with the weakness of UTSA’s defense, which ranks 80th in QB rating defense, and 52nd in epa pass defense. Louisiana Tech put up...
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Oct 23, 2021
Freddy Wills
Fresno State -3 3.3% Free Play
First of all I think we are getting some line value here based on Nevada’s win at Boise, which was a bit misleading when you factor they were +3 in TO margin. Fresno State also far better team up and down when we put them next to Boise. Fresno has the more impressive road win at UCLA.
Fresno’s offense likes to pass the ball, and Ne...
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Oct 23, 2021
Freddy Wills
Boston College +4.5 2.2% play
This line is a bit inflated in my opinion based off Boston College's blowout loss against NC STate last week 33-7. However, a closer look revease that BC muffed a punt which was returned for a TD, they threw an INT that led to a TD. That was 14 points and Jeff Hafley and BC never came back from it. Louisville 3-3, and has struggled to stop the run ...
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Oct 23, 2021
Freddy Wills
Clemson +3.5 3.3% play
Clearly a value play here. The last 3 meetings the spread has been 21.5, 27, and 24, and pre-season this spread was -17.5, and we have seen a 3 TD move. Clemson also 0-6 ATS this season while Pitt is 5-1 ATS. Clemson has faced by far the tougher schedule at this point their opponent ypp differential is +0.88 compared to Pitt’s opponents who are -0.42...
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Oct 23, 2021
Freddy Wills
Oregon +1.5 3.3% play
Both of these teams are pretty even statistically speaking, and both want to run the ball first. When I look at this game I feel the wrong team is favored and it’s due to recency bias. You have UCLA who just won back to back road games and the most recent at Washington, and Oregon barely got by CAL, and lost to Stanford. Both these teams are very good runni...
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Oct 23, 2021
Freddy Wills
Iowa State -6.5 -120 2.5% play
We have an undefeated and #9 team in the country on the road against a 4-2 unranked team and they are a TD dog and they both play in the Power 5. I’m going with the Iowa State side here as they are clearly the better team from a metric perspective. Oklahoma State should have lost last week as they were down 17-3 with Texas in the red zone, and Texa...
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Oct 23, 2021
Freddy Wills
Kansas State -105 5.5% MAX NCAAF POD
This is a max effort game for Kansas State who is the more desparate team having lost 8 straight Big 12 games, and Chris Kleinman’s seat has gotten hot. However, they just lost to the 3 best teams in the conference in Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Iowa State. They have actually owned Texas Tech winning 9 of the last 10 match ups, and I expect ...
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Oct 22, 2021
Freddy Wills
Washington -17.5 2.2% play
This is just a great match up for Washington in my opinion and they sit at 2-4 and will want a convincing win to help with their team confidence and get back into bowl game discussion. Washington's offensive #'s are low, because their posessions have been limited facing opponents that are run first and good at running in UCLA, Oregon St, Cal, and Michigan who are ...
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Oct 22, 2021
Freddy Wills
UCF +115 5.5% NCAAF POD
Let’s talk about the short rest for UCF? I’m not concerned, because they get so much energy from their home crowd, known as the “Bounce House.” Memphis does have an extra couple days to prepare for this game, but I think traveling down to UCF where it’s 80 degrees and over 60% humidity is going to be a challenge. Memphis has really...
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