Oct 29, 2022 Freddy Wills
Pitt +3 5.5% NCAAF POD I have to put last week’s Pitt game behind me as it was our top play, and it’s usually a little difficult for me to get back to the window after a team burned me like Pitt did coming with 4 to’s at Louisville in my biggest play of the week, but not getting to the window the next week is a little square so here we are in a match up I like even more. 2Oct 29, 2022 Freddy Wills
UAB -4.5 2.2% PLAY Straight fade of FAU who is now 9-18-1 ATS under Willie Taggart. UAB could be without their starting QB here, but that won't matter as they run the ball 66% of the time rank 7th in ypc, going up against FAU who is 109th in ypc defense. This play is more about the fact that FAU struggles when they face good defenses. UAB ranks 27th in ypp defense while FAU ranks 69thOct 29, 2022 Freddy Wills
Texas A&M +8 / Baylor +8.5 2.2% teaser Ole Miss exposed a bit in the second half on the road at LSU as the LSU defense dominated, and I think we see more of that from the Aggies defense at home in a bit of a desperate spot. This is still a night game at Kyle Field, and the Aggies hold a very good home field. Jimbo Fisher typically bounces back and wins a game with his back againsOct 29, 2022 Freddy Wills
Missouri +3.5 3.3% play This will be a tight game in my opinion as Missouri is a top 20 defense ranking top 20 vs. the run and vs. the pass. I don’t see how South Carolina gets points here to cover the spread as their offense is pretty bad and Spencer Rattler has been very underwhelming. Missouri should have won at Florida, should have won at Auburn, and gave Georgia a dog fightOct 29, 2022 Freddy Wills
Nebraska +7.5 2.2% play I think this is nice spot for Nebraska who seemed to get a nice bump after their bye a few weeks ago, and here are getting another bye, meanwhile Illinois in a flat spot after 3 weeks in a row against tough opponents, Wisconsin, Iowa and Minnesota, where they were dogs in 2 of the 3. This is also Illinois 3rd road game of the year, and they lost earlier against IndiaOct 29, 2022 Freddy Wills
Cinci +2 3.3% play Gus Malzahn needs the running game for his offense to work. It’s been no different at UCF where he’s just 1-5 vs. teams with a top 60 run defense. UCF has an interesting dynamic at QB with Plumlee, but he’s a one dimensional player and it’s something a quality defensive minded coach like Fickel can scheme for. Plumlee as a starter datinOct 29, 2022 Freddy Wills
Notre Dame +3 -120 4% play Major let down spot for Syracuse after blowing a double digit lead against Clemson in a very phsyical game. To make it worse they had a roughing the passer late in the game that really cost them the game. I don't think they have much left for this game, and why did Sean Tucker only have 5 carries in the game? I don't htink Tucker is completely healthy,Oct 29, 2022 Freddy Wills
Iowa State +1.5 2.2% play Iowa State 0-4 in Big 12 play, but their losses are by a total of 14 points, and I think they are on the right track with their 3 point loss to Texas as Hunter Dekkers played by far his best game, and will be aided by the fact that they are facing at eam who ranks 106th in ypc defense, and at home again. Oklahoma on the other hand are playing their tougheOct 29, 2022 Freddy Wills
West Virginia +7.5 3.3% play / West Virginia +240 0.3% play TCU now off 5 straight games that have gone down to the wire with 4 of them being against top 20 opponents, and the 5th being against Sonny Dykes old team, SMU. TCU now goes on the road to face West Virginia in a bit of a let down/sleepy spot, and it’s a spot that TCU has struggled losing 4 straight to West Virginia, and SonnOct 29, 2022 Freddy Wills
Arkansas -3.5 1.1% Free Play I believe Bryan Harsin is a dead guy walking here and a bye is not going to save his job. Arkansas is coming in a little under rated even though they are a field goal favorite this was a team that was destined for a top 10 rating before they lost to Texas A&M on a KJ Jefferson fumble that was returned for a TD, making it a 10-14 point swing. The bye ceOct 29, 2022 Freddy Wills
Kentucky / Tennessee Over 62 3.3% play This is a game I certainly lean Kentucky on the side, but I'm concerned with how fast Tennessee plays and gets out early in games. I would rather play Kentuck +14 or higher in live action or play them 2nd half. This was a back and forth game last year, and Kentucky's defense is not as good, while Will Levis and the passing game is better as LevisOct 28, 2022 Freddy Wills
BYU -3 3.3% PLAY Can’t really compare the strength of schedules here. East Carolina’s only P5 opponent was NC State to open the season, while BYU has faced Arkansas, Notre Dame, Oregon, Baylor, and then a very good Liberty team. East Carolina also getting a bit more love than they should after beating UCF last week 34-13. UCF likely looking ahead to this week’sOct 27, 2022 Freddy Wills
Washington State +7 2.2% play Statistically we have a pretty even match up as WAshington STate +0.2 yards per play vs. an average opponent +0.36, while Utah is +0.1 vs. average opponent +0.5. Washington State has a very good home field advantage, in fact Utah has not won here since 2011. Both teams off a bye, but I think that favors Washington State a bit more considering they had strugglesOct 27, 2022 Freddy Wills
Tampa -130 2.5% playOct 23, 2022 Freddy Wills
Dolphins / Steelers Over 44.5 3.3% playOct 23, 2022 Freddy Wills
49ERS +1 2.2% PLAYOct 23, 2022 Freddy Wills
Colts +3 -125 3.5% playOct 23, 2022 Freddy Wills
Bengals -0.5 / Broncos +7.5 3.3% playOct 23, 2022 Freddy Wills
Browns +7 -125 5.5% NFL PODOct 23, 2022 Freddy Wills
Giants +3.5 1.1% Free PlayOct 23, 2022 Freddy Wills
LIONS +7 3.3% PLAYOct 22, 2022 Freddy Wills
California +7.5 2.2% play Cal was in a battle at Notre Dame losing 17-24, they came back home beat Arizona 49-31, then lost b2b road games with a bye in between. The loss against Colorado is particularly head scratching as many believe Colorado to be the worst among Power 5 opponents. Perhaps Cal and Wilcox was looking ahead to his former employer’s meeting with Washington?Oct 22, 2022 Freddy Wills
Kansas State +3.5 3.3% play TCU has a top 5 offense form a YPP perspective, but their average opponent ypp defense ranks 102.8, and here they’ll face Kansas State ranking 35th. It’s a big step up in class, and Kansas State which ranks top 10 in epa pass defense will also have 30mph wind gusts in their favor in this game. The windy environment definitely should help KOct 22, 2022 Freddy Wills
Pittsburgh +2.5 5.5% NCAAF POD Malik Cunningham is cleared for this game for Louisville and that’s a good thing here. He hasn’t played in 3 weeks since suffering a concussion and Louisville off a bye. I always feel like QB’s struggle the first week coming back after a concussion. I feel like they aren’t necessarily 100%, and then they have to process so mOct 22, 2022 Freddy Wills
Liberty +7 3.3% play I understand Liberty has not faced a tough schedule with an opponent YPP differential of -0.58, but BYU’s opponent YPP differential is -0.34, and they both put up +1ypp. BYU just went back to back against Notre Dame and Arkansas and got their buts kicked. They got their buts kicked against Oregon as well. The schedule is obviously tougher than what Lib
