Oct 21, 2023
Freddy Wills
Penn State +5 1.1 % play
Penn State has not played a soul, and I’m sure their players and coaching staff have heard it all week, but I still like them here, and the fact that the total has come crashing down below some key numbers, but the spread has gone the other way making those points even more valuable. Penn State’s defense seems legit, and they also seem to h...
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Oct 21, 2023
Freddy Wills
Baylor +3.5 3.3% play
Cinci has really struggled this season in their first year in the Big 12. Actually all of the teams who joined the Big 12 have struggled. Baylor got a win at UCF in Blake Shapen’s first game back. Shapen will now be making his third start, and this one after a bye, which gave him extra time to get back in synch with the team, and this ...
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Oct 21, 2023
Freddy Wills
Navy +10.5 3.3% play
Air Force has one three straight match ups, but I think this is Navy’s best chance over that time period to pull an upset win. Air Force’s starting QB Larrier is doubtful, and Air Force just played a very physical game against Wyoming. Jensen Jones who came in for Larrier fumbled on his first two possessions, and that’s the one thing that can not happe...
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Oct 21, 2023
Freddy Wills
Wisconsin -130 2.5% play
A bit of a cheap price here on Wisconsin following their loss as a double digit favorite vs. Iowa. A game that saw them lose their starting QB Tanner Mordecai who will be out in this game again. I thought Braedyn Locke stepped up well enough in a tough spot vs. a top 10 defense. He gets to go on the road here and take some of the pressure off against an ...
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Oct 21, 2023
Freddy Wills
Georgia Tech -5 3.3% play
Georgia Tech and BC off a bye here, and I think Georgia Tech is discounted a bit as both teams come in at 3-3, but Georgia Tech has faced the far tougher schedule. Tech was in the game against Ole Miss, and the closes comparable opponent for BC was Louisville with their passing attack. Georgia Tech is #1 in explosive plays, and top 50 in pace wh...
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Oct 19, 2023
Freddy Wills
Jaguars / Saints Under 40 2.2% play ...
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Oct 19, 2023
Freddy Wills
Saints -130 2.5% play ...
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Oct 18, 2023
Freddy Wills
New Mexico State -3 2.2% play
Huge coaching mismatch here w/Jerry Kill vs. Dana Dimel. UTEP is just 5-21 ATS in their last 26 home games, and are down to their 4th string QB at this point. New Mexico State is continuing to get better and they have an elite offense with an elite running game backed by a dual threat QB in Diego Paiva. I think that travels well, and expect New Mexi...
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Oct 16, 2023
Freddy Wills
Cowboys -1.5 2.2% play
This should be like a home game for the Cowboys, and they are coming off a loss where they are actually a positive 10-1 ATS following a loss under Mike McCarthy. Cowboys ran into the best team in the NFL last week agaisnt the 49ers. Both teams have some injuries, but Chargers offensive line is a major concern here tonight and the reason I think the Cowboys win ...
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Oct 16, 2023
Freddy Wills
Keenan Allen longest reception over 23.5 0.33% play...
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Oct 15, 2023
Freddy Wills
Patriots +3 -115 3.5% play ...
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Oct 15, 2023
Freddy Wills
Browns +10 3.3% play
The weather is going to be horrible this total dropped from in the 40's to 36, but the line has gone the other way. The 49ers are the favorite to win the Super Bowl, Watson out at QB for Cleveland, but their DC Jim Schwartz has a lot of experience against Kyle Shanahan who is only 1-8 vs. Schwartz. Defensive battle, the 49ers have not faced any good defenses so fa...
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Oct 15, 2023
Freddy Wills
Colts / Jaguars 1st Half Under 22 2.2% play ...
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Oct 15, 2023
Freddy Wills
Seahawks / Bengals Over 45 3.3% play ...
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Oct 15, 2023
Freddy Wills
Texans +8 / Rams -1 2.2% play ...
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Oct 14, 2023
Freddy Wills
UAB +9.5 5.5% NCAAF POD
UAB has shown a lot of improvements over their last 3 games under Trent Dilfer, and UTSA is not the same team as previous seasons. I see no reason why this won’t be a close game. UTSA’s defense let a horrible Temple team pass for 472 yards a week ago. UAB has covered their last 3 games, all as dogs, and their offense is starting to cli...
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Oct 14, 2023
Freddy Wills
UCLA / Oregon St Under 54 3.3% play ...
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Oct 14, 2023
Freddy Wills
Miami +3.5 3.3% play
Miami has everything in front of them despite their unthinkable loss to GEorgia Tech, which probably had them looking ahead to this game in my opinion. North Carolina had another satisfying win a week against Syracuse, and probably feeling pretty confident coming into this game.
This game just screams field goal, and in fact the game has been decided by a field...
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Oct 14, 2023
Freddy Wills
Auburn +11.5 2.2% play
This is probably the best defense LSU has faced all year, and Auburn will come in fully rested off a bye after taking Georgia to the end of the game. LSU’s offense is clicking, but this is their 7th straight game, and the last 3 games have been extremely high leverage games decided in the final seconds. What does this team have left, especially the...
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Oct 14, 2023
Freddy Wills
USC +3 2.2% play
USC+3
USC is 2-4 ATS this season, and now they go on the road for their most difficult task to face the Notre Dame team that suffered their season ending 2nd loss. I don’t think Notre Dame planned to suffer their 2nd loss already this season, but the fact is they let the Ohio State game get away, they should have lost to Duke, and Lousiville pretty much dominated that game...
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Oct 14, 2023
Freddy Wills
Bowling Green +4.5 3.3% play
Buffalo is not a very good team this year. They have faced a far weaker schedule compared to Bowling Green, and have played far worse at home than Bowling Green played on the road against their common opponent Liberty. I think we are buying low on Bowling Green after their 27-0 loss a week ago to Miami Ohio, but they were clearly in a bit of a flat spot a...
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Oct 14, 2023
Freddy Wills
Washington -3 3.3% play
Washington -3
The Huskies have not played anyone that is on the same level as Oregon thus far, but they have played the tougher schedule and have better results. When you take out garbage time the Huskies have an average success rate of 38th against an average opponent success rate of 70th, while Oregon is at 53.5 vs. 90.4. Oregon should have lost to Texas Tec...
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Oct 14, 2023
Freddy Wills
Army / Troy Under 43 2.2% play
Neither team is great in the red zone on offense, and better in red zone defense so I expect a fair amount of field goals. Army has been involved in some higher totals the last few games, but they faced mobile QB’s from BC and Syracuse who combined for 192 yards on 41 carries. Troy’s Gunnar Watson is not at all a running QB so the Arm...
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Oct 14, 2023
Freddy Wills
Tennessee -3 3.3% play
You literally have one of the best teams at home the past two years in the SEC against the worst road team in the SEC the past few years. The Aggies literally have not won a road game since Missouri in 2021, a game where they were 11.5 point favorites. To make matters worse they suffered their 2nd loss of the season last week against Alabama. I just don&rs...
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Oct 14, 2023
Freddy Wills
Florida +8.5 / Louisville -1 2.2% teaser
Florida +8.5
Nobody wants Florida here after they lost on the road a combined 25-57, but Florida faced Kentucky and Utah, both those teams are top 10 rushing teams, and can play very good run defense as well. South Carolina ranks 120th in ypc defense, 104th in rushing success defense, and right now just aren’t a very good team ranking 89th in ...
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