Oct 02, 2022 Freddy Wills
Saints +3.5 2.2% playOct 02, 2022 Freddy Wills
Seahawks +3.5 3.3% playOct 01, 2022 Freddy Wills
Virginia +3 -120 3.5% play The story of Virginia is their offense despite returning Brennan Armstrong and his top 3 WR they have really struggled ranking 101st in YPP, 107th in success rate. The reason being their offensive line had to be completely replaced, and their OC left for Syracuse, and they have made many mistakes along the way due to the fact that Armstrong has faced 2nd most presOct 01, 2022 Freddy Wills
Troy +5.5 5.5% NCAAF POD Western Kentucky looks like it has not missed a beat, but look at the strength of schedule here as they have faced an opponent ypp differential of -2.8ypp. To put it simply the average defense ypp is 105th, and average ypp offense is 116. This is a team that had to replace their QB, OC, top WR, and only returned 11 starters. There are going to be some grOct 01, 2022 Freddy Wills
Auburn +8.5 2.2% play I understand the near/lucky loss to Missouri at home in OT looks really bad, and a lot of people are calling for Bryan Harsin’s head, but this team is 3-1 and have a night game against LSU that I feel should be competitive. Auburn has to go with their backup QB Robby Ashford, but I would argue he’s an upgrade over the statue of TJ Finley. Ashford canOct 01, 2022 Freddy Wills
California +4 2.2% play These two teams are pretty evenly matched and Cal is tested on the road already by their tough game at Notre Dame. Cal is +0.4 ypp differential on the season vs. an average opponent -0.2, while Washingto State is +0.2 vs. a -0.56 so very similar, but better #’s against tougher competition for Cal. I think Wash State is maybe getting too much credit for thOct 01, 2022 Freddy Wills
Texas A&M +4.5 3.3% play I think these two teams are pretty even, but we have a spread over 4 and yet 68% of the bets are on Miss State here. The Aggies DC Durkin has faced Mike Leach each of the last two seasons, and while they gave up a ton of points they held them to 24 and 21 points as Ole Miss won both of those games. The Aggies lost last year’s game in this sandwOct 01, 2022 Freddy Wills
Michigan State +7.5 1.65% / Mich St +250 0.5% play I think this is worth a shot as a perfect storm of weather, wind/rain should help cover up some of the secondary issues Michigan State is having, and buy low situation on the Spartans here that could get the running game going here. Maryland's QB Tagovailoa is also ? for hte game, ribs along with his top target Jarret (head), but expect thOct 01, 2022 Freddy Wills
Iowa State -3 3.3% play Iowa State is off a very tough loss last week at home to a very good Baylor team. Iowa State now goes on the road to face a 4-0 SU & ATS Kansas team under Lance Leipold that’s getting a lot of hype, but probably too much at this point, which is one reason we are going to back Iowa State here with a short #. This line was just -34 Iowa State a seasonOct 01, 2022 Freddy Wills
Baylor -130 3% play Baylor has a very under rated home field advantage in my opinion, and I think this is a short line bc Oklahoma State off a bye, and Oklahoma State revenge from Big 12 Title game, but I think those are over rated motivating factors here. The fact of the matter is Oklahoma State is a different team than last year after losing a veteran led defense and their DC. TheyOct 01, 2022 Freddy Wills
Iowa +10.5 2.2% play In 2016 Kirk Ferentz and Jim Harbough faced off for the first time @ Iowa, the only meeting in Iowa, and Iowa was +24 dog and won outright 14-13. In 2019 they faced off again and Michigan was a 4 point home favorite and won 10-3, and then in the Big Ten Championship last year Michigan an 11.5 point favorite won 42-3. This line suggests that Iowa is worse, anOct 01, 2022 Freddy Wills
Kentucky +7 2.2% play This is the role I love to back Mark Stoops in. It is a little unusual to see a top 10 ranked team a TD dog on the road against a team that is ranked lower, and that would cause me some pause, but looking into this game I could not go any other way. I think Kentucky is going to force Ole Miss to rely on Jaxson Dart to win them this game, and I don’t know thOct 01, 2022 Freddy Wills
Fresno / Uconn Under 51.5 2.2% play weather play here as it will be rainy, and 20mph gusts, while Fresno will start a back up QB.Sep 30, 2022 Freddy Wills
Washington -2.5 -120 2.5% play I like the Huskies here, as Kalen Deboer seems like the real deal as a Head Coach and he took his Fresno State to the Rose Bowl just last year and they upset UCLA 40-37 as an 11 point dog and UCLA has 2 weeks to prepare. His team is getting much more respect this year and I expec to see some more back and forth but I like Deboer to get the win when you consideSep 30, 2022 Freddy Wills
UTSA -4 2.2% PLAY Middle Tennessee was the 6th team to pull an outright upset as 18+ underdog last week as they shocked Miami for their biggest win in program history. Those teas are 0-5 ATS the next week and they aren't just not covering spreads they are not doing so by double digits. I'm not surprised by Miami after that loss at Texas AM when their coach decided to kick field goals the enSep 30, 2022 Freddy Wills
Navy +14 1.1% Free Pick This is the largest spread in the Commander IN Chief series between these two teams since 2013 when navy was a 13.5 point favorite. The total here opened 34.5, and I just don’t think the spread should be this large when you factor in the strength of schedules here. Navy’s opponent YPP differential is +0.5, while Air Force’s is -2.35, soSep 29, 2022 Freddy Wills
Bengals -3.5 2.2% playSep 26, 2022 Freddy Wills
NY Giants -115 2% PlaySep 25, 2022 Freddy Wills
Packers +1 5.5% NFL PODSep 25, 2022 Freddy Wills
Chargers -170 4% play This is a cheap price on the Chargers. We are gambling a little bit that Herbert plays as he still may play. If he doesn't play then I think the team steps up, but if he does play this is a bargain.Sep 25, 2022 Freddy Wills
Lions / Vikings Over 52.5 2.2% playSep 25, 2022 Freddy Wills
Panthers +8.5 / Texans +8.5 3.3% Teaser of the WeekSep 25, 2022 Freddy Wills
Chiefs/Colts Under 51 2.2% playSep 25, 2022 Freddy Wills
Dolphins +4.5 1.1% Free Play - 76-49 Since 2010 on Free NFL plays. 60.8% winners + 40% ROISep 25, 2022 Freddy Wills
Washington +7 -125 buy 1/2 3.5% play
