Dec 28, 2022 Freddy Wills
Ole Miss -3.5 3.3% play All I’ve heard is that Texas Tech is the more motivated team, and Ole Miss isn’t motivated, but this Ole Miss team did not have any opt outs, and will be full go for this game. Ole Miss is the more talented team they were +1 ypp compared to Tech -0.8 ypp. Ole Miss is a pretty easy team to handicap to win they have to run and stop the run. In tDec 28, 2022 Freddy Wills
Arkansas / Kansas Over 68.5 2.2% play Arkansas down a bevy of defensive starters, and will bring in a largely inexperienced group without their DC Barry Odom. This is not a great sign for a defense that really struggled going up against a top offensive mind in Lance Leipold. Kansas offense was top offense in passing and running behind QB Jalon Daniels. Their numbers would be eveDec 28, 2022 Freddy Wills
UCF +3.5 2.2% PLAY I have my concerns about Plumlee being 100% healthy for this one according to many out there he may not be, but I think there has been plenty of time for him to heal up before this game. I think we are getting value here when we look at these two teams they have 2 common opponents. UCF was a -23.5 favorite vs. Temple, and a -21 favorite vs. Georgia Tech, while Duke was aDec 27, 2022 Freddy Wills
Oklahoma State +4.5 1.1% Free Play There are a whole lot of moving parts for this game with opt outs transfers portals and coaching changes. It’s clear this game is like a pre-season game, and with that said we are just naturally going to fade the line movement. Both starting QB’s are out, and then you got Jim Leonard who wanted to be the HC here, but got passed over for CDec 27, 2022 Freddy Wills
East Carolina -7 2.2% play Honestly how motivated is Coastal Carolina in this game with their head coach gone, their star QB Grayson McCall leaving via transfer portal. McCall will play here, but he won’t have his starting Center, and I don’t know, but if someone on my team was leaving and only coming to play this game to increase his stock against a poor defense I don’t kDec 27, 2022 Freddy Wills
Memphis -7 -115 2.5% play Memphis has lost close games to the good teams on the schedule and beat up on some of the bad teams. Utah State was -0.8 ypp differential this season, while Mmephis was +0.1. Memphis went 4-1 vs. teams with a -0.2 YPP or more winning those games by 16, 21, 12, and 24 while losing on the road to Miss State. They also went 4-1 vs. non top 80 offenses, andDec 26, 2022 Freddy Wills
Colts +3.5 2.2% playDec 26, 2022 Freddy Wills
New Mexico State +3.5 3.3% play Both of these teams are lucky to be in a bowl, but it’s more surprising that New Mexico State is here, and you have to give Jerry Kill credit. Kill is also 16-10-1 ATS vs. the MAC over his career. New Mexico State ranks 100th in ypp vs. an average opp defense ranking 65.1, while Bowling Green is 108th vs. 65.5. Pretty even, despite New MexiDec 25, 2022 Freddy Wills
Broncos -160 3.5% playDec 25, 2022 Freddy Wills
Dolphins -3 -120 2.5%Dec 24, 2022 Freddy Wills
Steelers -130 3% playDec 24, 2022 Freddy Wills
Cowboys / Eagles Over 47 5.5% NFL PODDec 24, 2022 Freddy Wills
Giants/ Vikings Over 47.5 3.3% playDec 24, 2022 Freddy Wills
Saints +8.5 / Panthers +8.5 3.3% Teaser playDec 24, 2022 Freddy Wills
Bills / Bears Under 40.5 2.2% playDec 23, 2022 Freddy Wills
Wake Forest -135 2% playDec 23, 2022 Freddy Wills
Lafayette +7 2.2% play I certainly do not trust Dana Holgorsen in a bowl game he’s 2-7 ATS, but for some reason they are favored by more than a TD. Houston has the better YPP differential, but vs. a weaker schedule, and the Sun Belt has been performing well in bowl season. Houston will have Nathaniel Dell for the bowl game at WR, but how much effort, or how much of the gamDec 22, 2022 Freddy Wills
Jets -1.5 2.2% playDec 22, 2022 Freddy Wills
Air Force +3.5 2.2% play We will find out real quick who wants to be here, as it’s going to be 20 degrees with 20 mph winds in Fort Worth. One thing is for sure the service academies always get up to play Power 5 schools and bowl games. I can’t say for sure if Baylor is motivated for this game after a disappointing season going 6-6, and playing in their state of Texas at TCU&rsDec 21, 2022 Freddy Wills
Western Kentucky +160 1%Dec 21, 2022 Freddy Wills
Western Kentucky +4 2.2% / Western Kentucky +160 1% Western Kentucky has a defensive player opting out of the portal coming back to play, and their star QB Austin Reed opting out of transfer portal and coming back to play so this game clearly matters to Western Kentucky is the way I’m taking it. C-USA has not done great vs. the Sun Belt, but South Alabama has never won a bowl game, anDec 20, 2022 Freddy Wills
Toledo /Liberty Under 54.5 3.3% playDec 20, 2022 Freddy Wills
Eastern Michigan +4.5 2.2% play I think this line is just a tad inflated because there is a stigma about the MAC Conference, and San Jose State clearly has a fabulous QB in Chad Cordeiro, but the MWC is 7-8 vs. the MAC. SJSU is 1-2 vs. the MAC and when we are looking at similar teams to Eastern Michigan that San Jose State has played we look at Utah State they were +1.5 on the road and lostDec 18, 2022 Freddy Wills
Bucs +3.5 1.1% free playDec 18, 2022 Freddy Wills
Raiders -123 4% play Raiders seem to be getting healtheir and getting Renfrow and Waller back for this game while the Patriots offense is without Stevenson again, a big loss in my opinion. Raiders also hav ea top 10 run defense if you can believe it, and the Patriots this year just 1-4 vs. top 15 epa run defenses losing to Miami, Baltimore, Minnesota, and Buffalo. Jets rank 16th, and
