Dec 19, 2020
Freddy Wills
Florida +16 2.2% play
I think Florida can stay within this number as we are getting a few extra points after Florida’s loss last week. Alabama’s uptick defense in my opinion is a bit overrated when you look at their schedule since the Georgia game, which was the last time this defense faced a top 60 unit. They gave up 24 points to Georgia in the first half who moved the ball extremely...
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Dec 19, 2020
Freddy Wills
Tulsa/Cinci Under 45.5 2.2% play
Both offensive numbers are inflated and even with a low total I like the under. Since their top defense faced was in game 1, Cincinatti has rolled. They managed only 24 points against Army, and Tulsa’s defense is a bit stronger in the numbers. Since that game Cinci has luckily faced a defense that on average ranks 87th in ypp defense, ypc d...
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Dec 19, 2020
Freddy Wills
San Jose State +7 3.3% play
I was waiting for another 7 to pop on this game as San Jose State goes back to play in Nevada for the second week in a row.
I think the total could be a little suppressed here with Boise State putting up just 17 points last week in a snow storm with the MW Championship game on deck, but the total has gone up by 4+ points already so we can’t play the over like we...
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Dec 19, 2020
Freddy Wills
Clemson -10 3.3% play
73% of the money on the public dog here in Notre Dame who won outright as a 5.5 point dog last time out and are now getting 10.5 points. Clemson had a true freshman at QB making his first road start and although I don't know that Trevor Lawrence would have played better, DJ Uiagalelei 29-44, 439 yards, 2TD's and 0INT. I think the running game, and Lawrence being ...
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Dec 19, 2020
Freddy Wills
Army +8.5 /Miss State +7.5 3.3% Teaser
Army - I’m teasing Army, and this one is pretty self explanatory as it is the lowest total on the board at 38.5, and these two teams know the style of offense. This game is at Army, and for the Commander In Chief trophy after both teams beat Navy. Both of these defenses have been playing great football and held Navy in check, and I expect a...
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Dec 19, 2020
Freddy Wills
Iowa State +6 3.3% play
The idea that Oklahoma’s defense has completely turned the corner is a bit of a myth in my opinion. They have been tremendous since the Texas game, and have improved their season rankings, but lets take a look at their last 5 opponents who rank on average 90th, in YPP off, rushing ypc, QB rating, success rating combined. Iowa State ranks 19th in those categorie...
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Dec 19, 2020
Freddy Wills
Northwestern +18.5 1.1% Free Pick
Indiana is probably the closest comparable opponent for Ohio State. Northwestern has the better defense, and believe it or not Northwestern’s passing offense is a bit better from an EPA perspective than Indiana. I don’t believe Northwestern has the athletes that Indiana has, but it’s worth noting as a former Indiana QB Ramsey will try to u...
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Dec 18, 2020
Freddy Wills
Oregon +3 3.3% play
Oregon probably does not deserve to be here, but with Washington having to cancel due to Covid they find themselves in the PAC 12 Championship. Due they relish the opportunity to upset USC, who has a shot at the college football playoff? I think USC is an over rated team, and we are getting the team with the better numbers catching points. The biggest thing t...
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Dec 18, 2020
Freddy Wills
Ball State +14 -120 buy ½ point 4.5 % NCAAF POD
Buffalo leads the nation in scoring, and are getting a lot of hype, but a closer looks reveals they have faced some really bad defenses. ON average they have faced a YPP defense ranking 108.8, 97.8 in ypc defense, and 99 in QB rating defense. Ball State’s strength is stopping the run they rank 42nd in ypc defense, and 28th i...
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Dec 18, 2020
Freddy Wills
UAB/Marshall Under 44 2.2% play
Low total here already, but I don’t think it is low enough. This is a Championship game, cold weather 33 degrees, and two top defenses that have been good stopping the run, and stopping the pass, we also have two slightly overrated offenses in my opinion, and both defenses have been excellent in the red zone and both among the slowest playing te...
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Dec 17, 2020
Freddy Wills
Chargers +3.5 2.2% play ...
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Dec 14, 2020
Freddy Wills
Browns +3.5 -115 3.5% play ...
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Dec 13, 2020
Freddy Wills
Steelers/Bills O49 3.3% play...
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Dec 13, 2020
Freddy Wills
Bills -130 4% play ...
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Dec 13, 2020
Freddy Wills
Texans/Bears O46 3.3% play...
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Dec 13, 2020
Freddy Wills
Bears +8 / Titans -1.5 3.3% Teaser Play ...
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Dec 13, 2020
Freddy Wills
Chargers -1 1.1% Free Play ...
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Dec 13, 2020
Freddy Wills
Dolphins +7.5 -1.20 buy 1/2 - +100 or -105 in many places currently. ...
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Dec 13, 2020
Freddy Wills
Raiders +3 2.2% play ...
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Dec 12, 2020
Freddy Wills
USC -165 3.5% PLAY
I missed the -2.5 yesterday, but still feel confident in USC, but I feel the money line offers mor evalue at this point. UCLA is a nice story as it appears Chip Kelly is finally turning the team around, but really I’m not sure what beating Cal, Arizona and Arizona State means in this shortened season. They have faced just one top 80 passing team, which was Ore...
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Dec 12, 2020
Freddy Wills
Your sportsbook should offer the opportunity to fill the open spot of the teaser sinc ethe Wash State game was canceled. - fill in Wyoming +14.5 for the second leg of the teaser ...
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Dec 12, 2020
Freddy Wills
Memphis +4.5 2.2% play
Only 25% of the money on Memphis after their 35-21 loss at Tulane last week, but this Memphis team is 7-3, with all their losses coming on the road, and they return home here. Houston is a team that has not played since November 14th, and they rank 117th in TO margin, so I’m not sure how anyone could back them as a road favorite. Houston also ranks 89th in...
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Dec 12, 2020
Freddy Wills
Wash State postponed, we filled in Wyomning +14.5 in its place and the play was re-released.
Wash State +8 / Iowa +8.5 3.3% Teaser
Cal off a huge upset last week, but they had a post game win expectancy of 6% and dropped in many ratings. Cal is just not a team that is going to win with margin, so getting Washington State here with value as a home dog, in cold weather is a bonus as I think ...
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Dec 12, 2020
Freddy Wills
Miami -3 2.2% play
This is a revenge game for Miami after last year’s shocking loss as they led by 5 late as Freshman Sam Howell converted on a 4th and 17. This time Miami is home, and will have 13,000 fans that are allowed into the Stadium to support them. HC Manny Diaz, said, “It was a loss that left a bad taste in our mouth.” JR. TE Brevin Jordan, That...
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Dec 12, 2020
Freddy Wills
Navy +7 2.2% play
This game is always one of my favorites of the season, especially, because it’s a stand alone game with two triple option teams battling it out, before the Heisman Trophy ceremony, but this year is a little different with many games on the schedule, and the game being at Army instead of Philadelphia is a bit weird, but the good news is the Cadets and Midshipmen can be at ...
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