Dec 04, 2020
Freddy Wills
Lafayette +3 3.3% play
While this game seems to not mean as much to Lafayette who is already playing in the Sun Belt Championship game, I think they want to act a little revenge on App State who beat them the last two years in the Sun Belt Championship game, and have gone 4-0 under two different head coaches the last two years. This game will be played in the rain, and both teams already li...
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Dec 03, 2020
Freddy Wills
Louisiana Tech -110 2.2% play
Louisiana Tech -110 2.2% play
Tech has seen multiple games canceled due to COVID, and have not played since Halloween night, where their struggling offense put up 37 points on a very good UAB defense. In the last 10 days they have also seen their top WR and backup RB opt out, but the line has moved from -3.5 to -1, and I don’t think those players are w...
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Nov 29, 2020
Freddy Wills
Tampa Bucs +3.5 5.5% NFL POD...
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Nov 29, 2020
Freddy Wills
Chargers / Bills Over 52 3.3% play ...
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Nov 29, 2020
Freddy Wills
Bengals +6 1.1% Free Pick ...
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Nov 29, 2020
Freddy Wills
Falcons +3.5 -115 - buy 1/2 point currently +3 +100 ...
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Nov 29, 2020
Freddy Wills
Patriots +7.5 / Browns -1 3.3% NFL Teaser...
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Nov 28, 2020
Freddy Wills
Hawaii +7.5 2.2% play
78% of the tickets and 82% of the money on Nevada. It's just not that easy. I don’t know a sharp or expert that has not picked Nevada to cover the spread. I’m really not sure who Nevada has beaten to get this much respect. The offenses this season that Nevada has faced rank on average 89.6 in yards per play. They faced Wyoming, UNLV,...
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Nov 28, 2020
Freddy Wills
LSU/TXAM Under 62 2.2% play ...
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Nov 28, 2020
Freddy Wills
Kansas State +6 3.3% play
These two teams are about even. Baylor -0.3 yards per play differential against an opponent YPP differential of -0.1, and Kansas State has identical numbers. Kansas State off the thumping by Iowa State to the tune of 45-0, and that has many questioning if Kansas State has given up on the season. I see an opportunity as we are clearly getting line value...
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Nov 28, 2020
Freddy Wills
Northwestern -8 2nd half...
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Nov 28, 2020
Freddy Wills
Auburn +24.5 2.2% play
No Nick Saban, no Jalen Waddle, and I get Bo Nix has to go on the road where he has not been good and Alabama supposedly has revenge from last year's game, but I still expect this to be closer than the experts think. Auburn's finding offensive balance, and I don't think Alabama's defense is as good as it has shown recentlyk, which I feel is giving us some value in the...
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Nov 28, 2020
Freddy Wills
Clemson -22.5 1.1% Free Play
Pitt is a very confident bunch, and their 41-17 win over FSU, and 47-14 win over Virginia Tech should have Clemson’s attention. Clemson has not played in 3 weeks, and I expect a pissed off team that can’t wait to get on the field. It may not be great early because of rust as Trevor Lawrence has not played in over a month, but I think Pitt&rsquo...
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Nov 28, 2020
Freddy Wills
Georgia Southern -1 2.2% play
Georgia Southern’s losses have come against Lafayette, Coastal, and Army all on the road. They should have beaten Army, as they blew a 21-7 lead, and ran the ball to run out the clock losing to Army by 1 point. I think they bounce back here against Georgia State who they have dominated.
Georgia State also lost to Coastal and Lafayette by bigger mar...
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Nov 28, 2020
Freddy Wills
Penn State / Michigan Over 57.5 2.2% play
Penn State ranks 2nd in the nation in plays per game, and Michigan’s defense clearly not what it once was giving up 36 points per game on the season, while scoring 30. Penn State is 0-5, and their defense has given up 30 points in every game this season, which I don’t anticipate will stop now, when they are 0-5 and have literally nothing...
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Nov 28, 2020
Freddy Wills
San Jose State +11.5 3.3% play
This is a relatively big game for the Mountain West as the winner has a route to the Conference Championship. There is some value in this number in my opinion when you consider San Jose State has the better statistics, and both teams do not like to run a lot of plays, ranking 112th and 119th in plays per game, which means this game should be shortened. ...
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Nov 27, 2020
Freddy Wills
Stanford -105 3% play
Stanford seems to be the better team here in my opinion with small sample size. Both have played two games, and STanford was without their starting QB Davis Mills vs. Oregon as well as their best cover corner Kyu Blu Kelly, which really hurt them in that game. For that reason I think Stanford's #'s could be a bit better, but one thing is clear they have faced the...
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Nov 27, 2020
Freddy Wills
Notre Dame -5.5 3.3% play
First of all lets talk motivation. This game matters to Notre Dame, because if they win it and win it in convincing fashion they could/should still make the college football playoff no matter what happens against Clemson.
I wanted to take the over here, but Notre Dame lost their Center Jarrett Patterson for the rest of the season, and they will be without startin...
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Nov 27, 2020
Freddy Wills
Nebraska +14 2.2% play
Still some 14's out there, and if your book allows you to buy a 1/2 point I think it's worth it to get it to -125. I also love that over 80% of the early money is on IOwa yet we haven't seen this # jump to 14.5 or higher.
Offesnively these two teams are nearly identical when it comes to success rate, and yards per play, but the biggest difference is Nebraska, which r...
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Nov 27, 2020
Freddy Wills
Texas +1 3.3% play
Texas is 2 plays away from being undefeated, and I would argue that they have improved statistically more from last year to this year than Iowa State. Overall teams are pretty even and we are getting Texas as a slight dog at home, on senior day, Sam Ehlinger’s last home game, with Big 12 Championship trip on the line for both teams. Texas fully rested here wi...
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Nov 26, 2020
Freddy Wills
Lions +3 2.2% play ...
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Nov 22, 2020
Freddy Wills
Raiders +7.5 3.3% play ...
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Nov 22, 2020
Freddy Wills
Packers / Colts Over 51 3.3% play ...
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Nov 22, 2020
Freddy Wills
Eagles +8.5 / Bengals +7.5 4.4% NFL Teaser...
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Nov 22, 2020
Freddy Wills
Titans +6 1.1% Free Play ...
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