Sep 15, 2018 Freddy Wills
Utah +5 4.4% NCAAF POD @ 10pm et I like the Utes to pull the upset here. Utah has been a tough out for Washington in their last 3 matchups. Utah won by 11, they lost by 7 on a last minute kick return TD, they lost by 3 last year as they gave up 10 points in the final minute. Utah to me has the better QB in this one in Tyler Huntley who threw for 293 passing yards at Washington last year 2 TSep 15, 2018 Freddy Wills
Arkansas pk / SD State +11.5 4.4% Teaser of the Week Arkansas led 27-9 entering the 4th quarter against Colorado State on the road before going on to lose 27-34 in shocking fashion. Losing to Colorado State who got blasted by Hawaii and Colorado the previous two weeks is not a good look, but I would argue Colorado State is better than what they showed in the first two games. Arkansas still looSep 15, 2018 Freddy Wills
Auburn -9.5 3.3% play I like Auburn a lot in this game against LSU. LSU's offensive line is going to have real difficult time protecting their QB in this game, and they will have trouble scoring points. LSU in week 2 had a 31-0 victory over SE Louisiana, but only put up 335 total yards. In week 1 against Miami they scored 33 points, but only had 296 total yards. Auburn's defense is better thanSep 15, 2018 Freddy Wills
SMU +36 1.1% Free PlayI feel like this line might be off by at least a TD here. SMU played a good game early against TCU last week as it was 14-12 at the half last week before they were shutout in the second half eventually losing 42-12. They lost by 30 points, but gave up two non-offensive TD's so the game itself was much closer than the final indicated. Michigan meanwhile got reSep 15, 2018 Freddy Wills
Oklahoma State -2.5 2.2% play @ 3:30pm ET Boise State is a popular dog this week that I'd look to fade. Oklahoma State is a very well coached team under Mike Gundy and he has done a far better job recruiting here compared to Bryan Harsin at Boise State. On average over the last 4 years Oklahoma State has had a recruiting class that is 29 places ahead of Boise State. Oklahoma State is not ofteSep 15, 2018 Freddy Wills
Illinois +10.5 3.3% play @ 3:30PM et Illinois returns 16 starters, and already their offense has scored more points in back to back games 31 and 34 than in any game last year. South Florida has Virginia Tech transfer AJ Bush at QB, who is questionable this game, but the unknown of MJ Rivers, another mobile QB is something I am comfortable with in this game. Illinois game plan is to slow the gaSep 15, 2018 Freddy Wills
Iowa State +17.5 3.3% play A lot of people are going to be jumping on Oklahoma this week. They have looked dominant in their first two weeks of the season, and there is the "revenge" angle that the media is going to hype up from last year when Iowa State went into Oklahoma and shocked the world. There is just too much value here on Iowa State, a team I can actually see pulling theSep 15, 2018 Freddy Wills
MTSU +33 3.3% PLAY @ 12PM ET This is far too many points for Georgia to be laying against a very good C-USA team in Middle Tennessee with 17 returning starters and an experienced QB. The reason is Georgia looked fantastic last week against South Carolina on the road, and Middle Tennessee has already lost to an SEC opponent of lesser quality in Vanderbilt 35-7. That was a very misleading finalSep 15, 2018 Freddy Wills
Vanderbilt +13.5 2.2% @ 2:30PM ET I missed out on the 14.5 earlier in the week, but I think there is still a good amount of line value here with Vanderbilt who sports the better QB in this match-up. Vanderbilt also looks much improved on defense while Notre Dame is really struggling on the offensive line and Brandon Wimbush is simply not a very good throwing QB. Notre Dame offensive line is aSep 13, 2018 Freddy Wills
Wake Forest +6.5 2.2% play Everyone is on Boston College here and Wake Forest is getting absolutely no respect in my opinion. This game has been moved up because of the incoming hurricane and weather conditions won't be ideal with the winds. This typically favors a run first team like Boston College, but I think Wake Forest is prepared and has a better shot of stopping the run thaSep 11, 2018 Freddy Wills
Here is an update on some of the things I am tracking. Fading the AP Pre-season Top 10 9-11 ATS so far, and 56% Success rate over the last 6 years. Favorite teams to fade this week are Oklahoma, Washington, Georgia, and Miami. Group of 5 Head Coaches in year #2 following 9+ wins ATS: Fading Florida Atlantic, and Fresno State has resulted in 1-3 ATS which improves the trend to 15-28 ATS. 1Sep 09, 2018 Freddy Wills
Cardinals -1.5 2.2% playSep 09, 2018 Freddy Wills
Bengals +121 5.5% PODSep 09, 2018 Freddy Wills
Vikings -6 3.3% playSep 09, 2018 Freddy Wills
Dolphins +105 2.2% playSep 08, 2018 Freddy Wills
San Jose State +34 1.1% Play The Spartans will head on the road to play at Washington State. I think we are getting 6 points of line value here as Washington State went on the road and shocked Wyoming with a big margin of victory. I know a lot of sharps that were all over Wyoming, and I would have played Washington State. This week is the week you would definitely look to fade them.Sep 08, 2018 Freddy Wills
Kentucky +14 2.2% play Kentucky had 3 defensive players turn the NFL down to return for their senior season. The idea? They want to win this game and leave their mark on this program. They nearly did it last year holding a 24-14 lead in the final minutes before losing 28-27 in heartbreaking fashion. Florida is getting far too much respect here in the number after defeating an FCS foesSep 08, 2018 Freddy Wills
Michigan State -6 2.2% PlayThe game of the year line on this game is 10 points, but last week Arizona State looked great against UTSA, a team many were picking to pull the upset as the cruised to a 49-7 victory. Michigan St meanwhile was in a dogfight against Utah State on their home field winning by just 7 points. I'm not really worried about that Mark Dantonio will have his boys readSep 08, 2018 Freddy Wills
South Carolina +10 2.2% play I talked about South Carolina a good amount in my pre-season podcast and they are a live dog here in week 2 in my opinion. For one their offense is much improved and they have the talent to score on a Georgia defense that has lost some talent. I think they will be able to take advantage of that and put up some points here to stay within striking distance. GeorgiaSep 08, 2018 Freddy Wills
Umass +2.5 3.3% PLAY We backed Umass last week against Boston College and they were pretty much out of the game by the end of the first quarter. I do like what i'm hearing from head coach Whipple and the defensive players who want to rebound. I think they will here against Georgia Southern who is back to running the triple option. Most of what hurt Umass last week was through the air, andSep 08, 2018 Freddy Wills
Duke +8.5 / Stanford +0.5 4.4% Teaser of the WeekDuke +8.5 - 12:00pm ET on Saturday:Northwestern won last week at Purdue and we had them as a play because they were an underdog. I much rather play this team as a dog than a favorite. We were actually really fortunate that Northwestern got the win because they were outgained by 71 yards and if the game went any longer it seemed like PurdSep 08, 2018 Freddy Wills
Georgia Tech -3.5 2.2% play Georgia Tech is under the radar after a losing season. They return 8 starters on offense, and their defense got a big upgrade in their defensive coordinator Nate Woody. Ga Tech already pitched their first shutout in game 1 defeating and dominating Alcorn State of FCS. Alcorn State was picked by many to win their conference so it was an impressive victory by the finSep 08, 2018 Freddy Wills
Nevada + 8.5 4.4% NCAAF POD I think Nevada is a live dog this week as Vanderbilt is off a misleading 35-7 final over Middle Tennessee their instate rival with Notre Dame on deck. Nevada has a Sr. QB in Ty Gangi who can really be a weapon in the air raid offense that Nevada runs and Vanderbilt rarely sees. Vanderbilt actually allowed MIddle Tenn twice as many yards in the first half, but heSep 04, 2018 Freddy Wills
Update on some of the things we are tracking: 2nd year head coaches P% as a dog are 84-64 ATS for a 56.7% ATS record. This week we look to back California who is a 3.5 point dog at BYU.1s year P5 Head coaches as underdogs went 0-2 ATS last week and are now 72-97 ATS, fading these coaches would have you hitting nearly 58% ATS. This week you could fade Texas A&M, Arizona, Arizona STate,Sep 03, 2018 Freddy Wills
Florida State -7 2.2% PlayFlorida State embarks on a new era under Head Coach Willie Taggart. Taggart will bring a new offense that is focused on speed, and more plays. One would think this may be very challenging at the start of a season and it might take Florida State a little to really get in gear with this offense, but the system is meant to be simple and easy to run. Deondre
