Dec 11, 2021
Freddy Wills
NAVY +7.5 5.5% NCAAF POD
I expect a tight game on a neutral field here. The numbers favor Army, but Navy has faced the tougher schedule with Notre Dame and Cinci on their schedule and their opponent YPP differential are far different. Navy has faced an average opponent YPP diff of +0.65 cmopared to Army -0.2. The YPP differential, and opponent YPP differential leads me to believ...
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Dec 05, 2021
Freddy Wills
Vikings -1 / Washington Football Team +7.5 3.3% play ...
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Dec 05, 2021
Freddy Wills
Chargers +3 5.5% MAX NFL POD...
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Dec 05, 2021
Freddy Wills
Falcons +11 2.2% play ...
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Dec 05, 2021
Freddy Wills
Houston Texans +10 1.1% Free Play ...
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Dec 04, 2021
Freddy Wills
Pitt -3 2.2% play
This game should be fun with two elite QB’s going head to head in Hartman and Picket. On paper it looks like a home game for Wake as it will be played in NC, but Wake doesn’t have a huge fan base to begin with.. I like Pitt to win the game as they have a similar offense, but better defense. Pitt has already seen a better version of this Wake Forest ...
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Dec 04, 2021
Freddy Wills
Iowa +11 3.3 %play
Michigan should win this game by 2TD’s or more, but it’s coming off a win over Ohio State their biggest rivalry and I get they are in the college football playoff, but all that means to me is that they are playing with immense pressure, and Iowa is in a role of spoiler, a role they absolute love. Iowa really is the outlier and will be playing with no pressure ...
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Dec 04, 2021
Freddy Wills
Houston / Cinci Under 53 5.5% NCAAF POD
There is value in this under when you consider the total in last year’s game was 52.5 and Houston’s defense is top 50 vs. the run and the pass, and 10th in ypp. Last year’s team was 77th in yards per play. The defense is far better than it was a year ago, and while Cinci put up 38 points on them a year ago the total still went ...
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Dec 04, 2021
Freddy Wills
Alabama / Georgia Under 49.5 2.2% play
Cases can be made for both sides here, but I like the under the most in this match up as Georgia is the #1 red zone TD% allowed defense, and #1 explosive plays allowed, and both Alabama and Georgia re top 10 in 20+ yard plays allowed. Georgia is one of the slower tempo teams in the country, and seem to play ultra conservative at times. I do think...
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Dec 04, 2021
Freddy Wills
SD State -6 1.1% Free Play
San Diego State will start their back up QB, but it’s not a bad thing he gave them a jolt coming in relief in the Boise game and is a Sr. who knows this offense. The value of San Diego State is in their defense that can stop the pass and the run. Utah State averaged 38.4 ppg in their wins and 13.3 in their losses. All 3 losses to Byu, Boise, and ...
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Dec 04, 2021
Freddy Wills
App St -130 2.5% play...
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Dec 03, 2021
Freddy Wills
Oregon +3 3.3% play
Roles are reversed here. All the pressure is on Utah trying to win their first Pac 12 Championship and their first trip to the Rose Bowl. I think this game should be a pk, but because Utah demolished Oregon 2 weeks ago we have Utah a 3 point favorite on a neutral site. Oregon played their worst game of the season in a challenging environment at altitude at Ut...
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Dec 03, 2021
Freddy Wills
UTSA +3.5 3.3% PLAY
UTSA +3.5 3.3% PLAY
Alamo Dome should be rocking Friday night in a rematch that happened at Western Kentucky earlier in the season, in what was an absolute show down 52-46, with Western Kentucky ending at the 1 yard line. UTSA off it’s first loss to a motivated North Texas team last week where HC Jeff Traylor admitted they didn’t have it early after their b...
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Nov 28, 2021
Freddy Wills
Rams -1.5 5.5% MAX NFL POD...
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Nov 28, 2021
Freddy Wills
Vikings +3.5 1.1% free Play ...
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Nov 28, 2021
Freddy Wills
Chargers -2.5 2.2% play ...
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Nov 28, 2021
Freddy Wills
Dolphins +8.5 / Patriots -1 3.3% NFL Teaser...
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Nov 28, 2021
Freddy Wills
Bucs / Colts Over 53 3.3% play ...
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Nov 27, 2021
Freddy Wills
Cal +7 -115 3.5% play
Still some 7’s out there, but this one is going to 6.5. I gave out Cal last week to clients over Stanford and off their bye with all of their players back from COVID they crushed Stanford 41-11. Cal gains momentum from that win as they continue to win their next two games against California schools. Cal is actually the better team number wise overall ...
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Nov 27, 2021
Freddy Wills
Oklahoma +4.5 3.3% play
Recency bias and 79% of the money is driving this number from -1 Oklahoma State all the way to -4.5, and I just can’t pass up the opportunity to back the Sooners here.
In reality this rushing offense from Oklahoma State is nothing special, and they have gotten by with it thank to their defense, but they are playing the best offense they have faced all year this wee...
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Nov 27, 2021
Freddy Wills
Kentucky +3 1.1% Free Play
Louisville’s wins have come against bad teams. Their best win is over Florida State on the road very early in the season before Florida State was good. Their other wins came against Boston College without their QB, and then most recently beat Syracuse, and blew out a bad Duke team. That recency bias has made Louisville a favorite over a very good...
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Nov 27, 2021
Freddy Wills
South Carolina +11.5 3.3% play
I can not guarantee that Clemson is going to have max effort here today. Despite Dabo Swinney being that master motivator, I'm not sure how he will be able to get his team completely up for this. After NC State had a miraculous come back yesterday it officially eliminated Clemson from the ACC Championship, and really this game is just for bowl positioni...
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Nov 27, 2021
Freddy Wills
Syracuse +12.5 2.2% play
This situation is a bit similar to yesterday's East Carolina play +14 against Cincinnati, which if you go back to watch that game they should have covered. TWo special teams TD's, one big pass play. Pitt clearly wants to get to 10 wins, but up next is the ACC Championship game, and we saw this play out before back in 2018. Pitt wraps up a trip to the ACC...
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Nov 27, 2021
Freddy Wills
Wisconsin -7 2.2% play
Grabbing this number now. There is a shot this game means nothing to Minnesota if Iowa beats Nebraska. Either way this game means something for Wisconsin and the only way it means something for Minnesota is if Iowa loses, and Purdue wins all possibilities that could not come true, and then we would likely see this number move to 8.5 or higher. Both teams p...
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Nov 27, 2021
Freddy Wills
Tulsa +6.5 5.5% MAX POD / Tulsa +205 1% bonus
I love this game not only is the situation in our favor, but so are the numbers and the match ups. Situationally, SMU comes off a loss to Cinci and they no longer have a shot at the conference championship, and their head coach is likely headed to TCU. Phillip Montgomery on the other side is playing for bowl eligibility he just got a 2 yea...
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