Oct 30, 2021 Freddy Wills
Auburn -3 3.3% play This is a brutal stretch for Ole Miss, and they have to go on the road to face a very under rated Auburn team that is coming off a bye. Ole Miss is banged up without both their starting Guards, and 3 of their top 5 receivers are either out or questionable for this game. Matt Corral is having a fantastic season, but his QB is 56 points lower in road games, and Ole MOct 30, 2021 Freddy Wills
Boise State -2.5 2.2% PLAY Colorado State has not beaten anyone, and they’re 0-10 vs. Boise State, with an average spread of 17.6 points, but why is the spread only 2.5 points? Boise has lost 4 games this season, but Colorado State lost to Vanderbilt at home for cyring out loud. Boise State has by far played a tougher schedule with BYU, Oklahoma St, and UCF (healthy) in their noOct 30, 2021 Freddy Wills
Florida +14 2.2% play If you don’t look at the records, and blank out the teams the stats are pretty close between these two. Georgia ranks 9th in ypp offense, Florida ranks 3rd. Georgia ranks #1 in ypp defense, and Florida ranks 23rd. Florida’s defensive number surprised me a bit when looking at this match up and they have clearly faced a tougher schedule of offenses.&nbsOct 30, 2021 Freddy Wills
Iowa State -7 2.2% play I backed West Virginia +4.5 last week and they won outright on the road against TCU, a very bad defense. West Virginia will return home to play Iowa State, a defense built to stop the style of offense West Virginia runs. West Virginia under Neal Brown needs to run the ball. This year 4.71ypc in wins, 2.60 in losses, and last year 4.64 ypc in wins, but 2.1Oct 30, 2021 Freddy Wills
Texas +3 -120 3.5% play Baylor had all the momentum with back to back impressive wins over West Virginia and BYU, and that is not when you want to go on a bye. Texas off back to back losses and in a tough three game stretch having faced TCU, Oklahoma and Oklahoma St, and that’s the exact time you want to go on a bye. On paper Baylor look sto have the better run offense and defense, bOct 30, 2021 Freddy Wills
Rutgers -120 3% play This is about as poor of a situation as a team could be in with Illinois off a 9 OT game, and a huge upset over Penn State as a 24.5 point dog facing a team coming off a bye. I also like Rutgers in the match up as Rutgers ranks 25th in epa run defense, and that has come against an average opponent epa run offense ranking 47.8. All Illinois can do is run the ball,Oct 30, 2021 Freddy Wills
Iowa +3.5 1.1% Free Play I feel like we are getting an extra point of value here. Iowa lost to Purdue, and Wisconsin beat Purdue so it seems so easy to just take Wisconsin here. I’m not going to over react to recency bias as Wisconsin has always dominated Purdue, and Purdue under Jeff Brohm has dominated Iowa. I’m sure if Purdue played Wisconsin first then IowaOct 30, 2021 Freddy Wills
Indiana +175 2% play Indiana is down to their 3rd string QB here and the line jumped 3 points, which I don’t think is warranted. Donaven McCulley will take over at QB, and he’s the #2 prospect out of the state of Indiana last year, a 4* QB with dual threat capability and is going to give this offense an added dimension offensively. Maryland in my opinion really does not dOct 28, 2021 Freddy Wills
Packers +7 -125 2.5% playOct 28, 2021 Freddy Wills
South Florida +10 3.3% play I'm not at all impressed with East Carolina's near upset over Houston last week in OT. Houston has played an average opp YPP differential of -0.9. Meanwhile South Florida has had a tough schedule having faced NC State, Florida, BYU And SMU all positive in YPP differential and ranked at one time or another. Houston also had SMU on deck that they were lOct 27, 2021 Freddy Wills
View on YouTubeOct 25, 2021 Freddy Wills
Saints / Seahawks Under 21.5 -133 1st HalfOct 24, 2021 Freddy Wills
Colts +4 5.5% NFL MAX PODOct 24, 2021 Freddy Wills
Texans +17.5 1.1% Free PlayOct 24, 2021 Freddy Wills
Eagles +3 3.3% PlayOct 24, 2021 Freddy Wills
Bengals +6.5 3.3% playOct 24, 2021 Freddy Wills
Dolphins +8.5 / Giants +8.5 3.3% NFL TeaserOct 23, 2021 Freddy Wills
NC State -3 3.3% play I wanted to get out in front of this as it's going to go to -3.5 I believe. I faded Miami their last two games and I'm fading them again here. I just don't think Manny Diaz is a good coach, and now at 2-4. They're missing their QB King for the rest of the season, and their top two RB's and now go against arguably the best defense they have faced all year, aOct 23, 2021 Freddy Wills
GA Tech / Virginia Over 63 2.2% play Both of these teams like to play fast at 23 seconds per snap. Virginia’s offense is all about the pass behind Brennan Armstrong and it’s a good match up as Georgia Techs’ defensive strength is against the run. They rank 6th in epa run defense, but 111th in epa pass defense. Their defensive strength is not going to help themOct 23, 2021 Freddy Wills
West Virginia +4.5 3.3% play It was clear to me that West Virginia was gassed 2 weeks ago before their bye. They had a challenging schedule and travel, and they just got their ass kicked by Baylor who surprised them with a lot of big plays in the passing game. The bye week came at a good time for this team to rest up and self scout, and I think they come out with their best game of thOct 23, 2021 Freddy Wills
LA Tech +6 2.2% Free Play UTSA is #24 team ranked going on the road to play Louisiana Tech who lost this game on the road by 1 point. I think this is a good match up for Louisiana Tech’s offense, which relies on the passing attack, and that aligns with the weakness of UTSA’s defense, which ranks 80th in QB rating defense, and 52nd in epa pass defense. Louisiana Tech put upOct 23, 2021 Freddy Wills
Fresno State -3 3.3% Free Play First of all I think we are getting some line value here based on Nevada’s win at Boise, which was a bit misleading when you factor they were +3 in TO margin. Fresno State also far better team up and down when we put them next to Boise. Fresno has the more impressive road win at UCLA. Fresno’s offense likes to pass the ball, and NeOct 23, 2021 Freddy Wills
Boston College +4.5 2.2% play This line is a bit inflated in my opinion based off Boston College's blowout loss against NC STate last week 33-7. However, a closer look revease that BC muffed a punt which was returned for a TD, they threw an INT that led to a TD. That was 14 points and Jeff Hafley and BC never came back from it. Louisville 3-3, and has struggled to stop the runOct 23, 2021 Freddy Wills
Clemson +3.5 3.3% play Clearly a value play here. The last 3 meetings the spread has been 21.5, 27, and 24, and pre-season this spread was -17.5, and we have seen a 3 TD move. Clemson also 0-6 ATS this season while Pitt is 5-1 ATS. Clemson has faced by far the tougher schedule at this point their opponent ypp differential is +0.88 compared to Pitt’s opponents who are -0.42Oct 23, 2021 Freddy Wills
Oregon +1.5 3.3% play Both of these teams are pretty even statistically speaking, and both want to run the ball first. When I look at this game I feel the wrong team is favored and it’s due to recency bias. You have UCLA who just won back to back road games and the most recent at Washington, and Oregon barely got by CAL, and lost to Stanford. Both these teams are very good runni
