Dec 27, 2020 Freddy Wills
Jets/Browns Over 47 3.3% playDec 27, 2020 Freddy Wills
Texans -7 2.2% playDec 27, 2020 Freddy Wills
Steelers -125 3.5% playDec 26, 2020 Freddy Wills
Raiders +3 3.3% playDec 26, 2020 Freddy Wills
Lafayette / UTSA Under 56.5 3.3% play We have everything we want in an under as we have 2 teams that are primarily run first teams. ULL runs the ball 56.55% of the time while UTSA runs it at 54.74% of the time. Both teams do not turn the ball over ranking 13th and 14th in TO margin and they both play excellent special teams ranking 29th and 20th respectfully. Both teams want toDec 26, 2020 Freddy Wills
Lions +10 1.1% Free PlayDec 25, 2020 Freddy Wills
Saints -0.5 / Bears -1.5 4.4% NFL Teaser of the WeekDec 25, 2020 Freddy Wills
Marshall +4.5 3.3% play This handicap is pretty similar to the handicap in the MAC Title game against Ball State, where Ball State beat Buffalo as a 14 point dog. Here we have a Marshall team that is very good against the run, and has a balanced enough offense. Honestly, I think they should be favored, but they are down their star RB, and two good offensive lineman, but I think MarshaDec 23, 2020 Freddy Wills
LA Tech +210 1% playDec 23, 2020 Freddy Wills
LA Tech +7 2.2 % PLAY Tech’s statistical profile is not pretty, but when you factor in that they had UAB, conference champions, BYU, a top 15 team, Marshall, and TCU on their schedule it’s not as bad as it seems those are 4 top 25 defenses. Tech’s average opponent YPP differentiation was +0.55, compared to Georgia Southern’s -0.36. To put it in perspective theDec 22, 2020 Freddy Wills
UCF +7 -125 buy 1/2 point I have questions down the stretch for this BYU team, we backed Coastal in that road game, and this is a similar game against a similar opponent in UCF. Central Florida played two defeneses that have better #’s and they still put up 26 and 33 points against the Tulsa Defense and the Cinci defense. BYU has to travel to Florida here while UCF stays home.&nDec 22, 2020 Freddy Wills
Tulane -1 2.2% play. Tulane is missing some defensive players along their defensive line, and some coordinators, but that is reflected in the number, and generally speaking those things are overrated. I think Willie Fritz is the better coach here, and I love that I have the team with the better special teams, and TO margin by a wide margin. These two teams play conflicting styles, and theDec 20, 2020 Freddy Wills
Saints +3 3.3% playDec 20, 2020 Freddy Wills
Jets +17.5 1.1% Free PlayDec 20, 2020 Freddy Wills
Eagles +7 -121 buy 1/2 5.5% NFL PODDec 20, 2020 Freddy Wills
Texans +7.5 3.3% playDec 20, 2020 Freddy Wills
Patriots +7.5 / Bears +8.5 3.3% playDec 20, 2020 Freddy Wills
Redskins +6.5 2.2% playDec 19, 2020 Freddy Wills
Florida +16 2.2% play I think Florida can stay within this number as we are getting a few extra points after Florida’s loss last week. Alabama’s uptick defense in my opinion is a bit overrated when you look at their schedule since the Georgia game, which was the last time this defense faced a top 60 unit. They gave up 24 points to Georgia in the first half who moved the ball extremelyDec 19, 2020 Freddy Wills
Tulsa/Cinci Under 45.5 2.2% play Both offensive numbers are inflated and even with a low total I like the under. Since their top defense faced was in game 1, Cincinatti has rolled. They managed only 24 points against Army, and Tulsa’s defense is a bit stronger in the numbers. Since that game Cinci has luckily faced a defense that on average ranks 87th in ypp defense, ypc dDec 19, 2020 Freddy Wills
San Jose State +7 3.3% play I was waiting for another 7 to pop on this game as San Jose State goes back to play in Nevada for the second week in a row. I think the total could be a little suppressed here with Boise State putting up just 17 points last week in a snow storm with the MW Championship game on deck, but the total has gone up by 4+ points already so we can’t play the over like weDec 19, 2020 Freddy Wills
Clemson -10 3.3% play 73% of the money on the public dog here in Notre Dame who won outright as a 5.5 point dog last time out and are now getting 10.5 points. Clemson had a true freshman at QB making his first road start and although I don't know that Trevor Lawrence would have played better, DJ Uiagalelei 29-44, 439 yards, 2TD's and 0INT. I think the running game, and Lawrence beingDec 19, 2020 Freddy Wills
Army +8.5 /Miss State +7.5 3.3% Teaser Army - I’m teasing Army, and this one is pretty self explanatory as it is the lowest total on the board at 38.5, and these two teams know the style of offense. This game is at Army, and for the Commander In Chief trophy after both teams beat Navy. Both of these defenses have been playing great football and held Navy in check, and I expect aDec 19, 2020 Freddy Wills
Iowa State +6 3.3% play The idea that Oklahoma’s defense has completely turned the corner is a bit of a myth in my opinion. They have been tremendous since the Texas game, and have improved their season rankings, but lets take a look at their last 5 opponents who rank on average 90th, in YPP off, rushing ypc, QB rating, success rating combined. Iowa State ranks 19th in those categorieDec 19, 2020 Freddy Wills
Northwestern +18.5 1.1% Free Pick Indiana is probably the closest comparable opponent for Ohio State. Northwestern has the better defense, and believe it or not Northwestern’s passing offense is a bit better from an EPA perspective than Indiana. I don’t believe Northwestern has the athletes that Indiana has, but it’s worth noting as a former Indiana QB Ramsey will try to u
