Dec 27, 2022
Freddy Wills
Memphis -7 -115 2.5% play
Memphis has lost close games to the good teams on the schedule and beat up on some of the bad teams. Utah State was -0.8 ypp differential this season, while Mmephis was +0.1. Memphis went 4-1 vs. teams with a -0.2 YPP or more winning those games by 16, 21, 12, and 24 while losing on the road to Miss State. They also went 4-1 vs. non top 80 offenses, and...
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Dec 26, 2022
Freddy Wills
Colts +3.5 2.2% play...
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Dec 26, 2022
Freddy Wills
New Mexico State +3.5 3.3% play
Both of these teams are lucky to be in a bowl, but it’s more surprising that New Mexico State is here, and you have to give Jerry Kill credit. Kill is also 16-10-1 ATS vs. the MAC over his career. New Mexico State ranks 100th in ypp vs. an average opp defense ranking 65.1, while Bowling Green is 108th vs. 65.5. Pretty even, despite New Mexi...
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Dec 25, 2022
Freddy Wills
Broncos -160 3.5% play...
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Dec 25, 2022
Freddy Wills
Dolphins -3 -120 2.5%...
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Dec 24, 2022
Freddy Wills
Steelers -130 3% play ...
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Dec 24, 2022
Freddy Wills
Cowboys / Eagles Over 47 5.5% NFL POD ...
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Dec 24, 2022
Freddy Wills
Giants/ Vikings Over 47.5 3.3% play ...
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Dec 24, 2022
Freddy Wills
Saints +8.5 / Panthers +8.5 3.3% Teaser play ...
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Dec 24, 2022
Freddy Wills
Bills / Bears Under 40.5 2.2% play ...
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Dec 23, 2022
Freddy Wills
Wake Forest -135 2% play...
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Dec 23, 2022
Freddy Wills
Lafayette +7 2.2% play
I certainly do not trust Dana Holgorsen in a bowl game he’s 2-7 ATS, but for some reason they are favored by more than a TD. Houston has the better YPP differential, but vs. a weaker schedule, and the Sun Belt has been performing well in bowl season. Houston will have Nathaniel Dell for the bowl game at WR, but how much effort, or how much of the gam...
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Dec 22, 2022
Freddy Wills
Jets -1.5 2.2% play ...
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Dec 22, 2022
Freddy Wills
Air Force +3.5 2.2% play
We will find out real quick who wants to be here, as it’s going to be 20 degrees with 20 mph winds in Fort Worth. One thing is for sure the service academies always get up to play Power 5 schools and bowl games. I can’t say for sure if Baylor is motivated for this game after a disappointing season going 6-6, and playing in their state of Texas at TCU&rs...
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Dec 21, 2022
Freddy Wills
Western Kentucky +4 2.2% / Western Kentucky +160 1%
Western Kentucky has a defensive player opting out of the portal coming back to play, and their star QB Austin Reed opting out of transfer portal and coming back to play so this game clearly matters to Western Kentucky is the way I’m taking it. C-USA has not done great vs. the Sun Belt, but South Alabama has never won a bowl game, an...
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Dec 21, 2022
Freddy Wills
Western Kentucky +160 1% ...
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Dec 20, 2022
Freddy Wills
Toledo /Liberty Under 54.5 3.3% play...
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Dec 20, 2022
Freddy Wills
Eastern Michigan +4.5 2.2% play
I think this line is just a tad inflated because there is a stigma about the MAC Conference, and San Jose State clearly has a fabulous QB in Chad Cordeiro, but the MWC is 7-8 vs. the MAC. SJSU is 1-2 vs. the MAC and when we are looking at similar teams to Eastern Michigan that San Jose State has played we look at Utah State they were +1.5 on the road and lost...
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Dec 18, 2022
Freddy Wills
Bucs +3.5 1.1% free play ...
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Dec 18, 2022
Freddy Wills
Raiders -123 4% play
Raiders seem to be getting healtheir and getting Renfrow and Waller back for this game while the Patriots offense is without Stevenson again, a big loss in my opinion. Raiders also hav ea top 10 run defense if you can believe it, and the Patriots this year just 1-4 vs. top 15 epa run defenses losing to Miami, Baltimore, Minnesota, and Buffalo. Jets rank 16th, and...
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Dec 18, 2022
Freddy Wills
Lions +110 3% play - at bovada - hedging off Jets due to Zach Wilson news.
This essentially becomes a 2% play on the JEts. We gave out Jets -1 as the MAX NFL POD that will stand. You can get + on the ML in several spots with the Lions. I"m in shock that Zach Wilson is playing based on MIke White practicing and his interviews.
Scenarios
Jets win by exactly 1 - PUSH -3%
...
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Dec 18, 2022
Freddy Wills
Jets -1 5.5% NFL POD
Really likes the Jets to get back in the win column on Sunday. They nearly defeated and certainly out played from a yardage perspective two 10 win teams on the road the last two weeks. Mike White got banged up, but he will play through it and I don't see it being an issue. The Lions are one of the hottest teams, but after 3 straight home games in the dome th...
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Dec 18, 2022
Freddy Wills
Cowboys / Jaguars Over 47.5 3.3% play ...
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Dec 18, 2022
Freddy Wills
Steelers +8.5 / Cardinals +7.5 2.2% ...
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Dec 18, 2022
Freddy Wills
Bears +9 2.2% play ...
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