Nov 12, 2019
Freddy Wills
Western Michigan -1 2.2% play
Only 36% of the money is on Western Michigan right now. I don't really understand it other than the fact that Western Michigan has not won a road game, but they faced two P5 opponents, and Ohio is 0-5 ATS at home and have lost to two opponents that are worse than Western Michigan at home. Western Michigan has an extra day to prepare for this game as well ...
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Nov 10, 2019
Freddy Wills
Cowboys -3 -120 3% play ...
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Nov 10, 2019
Freddy Wills
Titans +6 5.5% NFL POD...
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Nov 10, 2019
Freddy Wills
Bengals +10.5 1.1% Free Play...
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Nov 10, 2019
Freddy Wills
Tampa Bay Bucs -5 3.3% play ...
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Nov 09, 2019
Freddy Wills
Iowa State +14.5 3.3% play
Both of these teams were off a bye and Oklahoma was hosting Iowa State in 2017 and Iowa State pulled the 38-31 upset. Actually, Oklahoma had a couple extra days to prepare for that game. I really like Matt Campbell as a HC and I don’t think he gets enough credit here, while he has kept this toa 10 pt game or less each of the last 3 years. Iowa State is...
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Nov 09, 2019
Freddy Wills
Duke +8 3.3% play
77% of the tickets on Notre Dame here as many are expecting them to bounce back. Notre Dame in November with nothing to play for is almost an automatic fade, and with 2 losses they are clearly out of the playoff discussion. This team appears to be mailing it in the way they have played the last two weeks now they get a Duke team who beat them in 2016 at Notre Dame. Duke ge...
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Nov 09, 2019
Freddy Wills
Cal +7.5 5.5% NCAAF POD
74% of the money is on Washington State here. I don’t really understand what they have done to be over a TD favorite on the road. It’s definitely recency bias here as Washington State nearly upset Oregon before their bye, but they have always played well against Oregon. Cal is obviously a top 50 defense, and Washington State is 0-3 vs. TOP 50 defens...
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Nov 09, 2019
Freddy Wills
Alabama -6 4.4% play / Tua to win Heisman +375 2% play
I wanted to get this bet out there before the line moves too much. We are already seeing sharp action on Alabama and I completely agree with it.
LSU nearly lost two games at home to Auburn and Florida or at least they both were in that game. Florida has a TD lead in the third quarter in that game while Auburn played toe to toe.&n...
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Nov 09, 2019
Freddy Wills
Virginia Tech +2 2.2% play
72% of the tickets coming in on Wake Forest as they just continue to win games so this is a perfect opportunity to sell high on this team. I think these two teams are pretty even across the board. Wake has benefitted by playing all but two games at home, and have been fortunate with TO’s so there has been some luck involved for sure. Virginia Tech has to be ...
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Nov 09, 2019
Freddy Wills
Wisconsin -2.5 / Texas -1 4.4% Teaser of the Week
Wisconsin now @ 8.5 - 6 point tease to -2.5
Wisconsin getting just 33% of the tickets as the public all over the big dog with a low total. I disagree here.
Iowa is Iowa whether it is off a bye or not, they are going to be the same team. Try to out play the opponent in the trenches don’t make mistakes, and rely on their...
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Nov 09, 2019
Freddy Wills
TCU +3 2.2% PLAY
79% of tickets are on Baylor right now, and this is a classic sell high situation we are in. Baylor also has Oklahoma on deck, and they have all the pressure in the world on them right now as an undefeated team with talks of next week’s game. This is a big in state rival game, and one that Baylor can not look past. It seems unusual that an undefeated team would ...
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Nov 09, 2019
Freddy Wills
Tua to win the Heisman 1% play @ +375
https://freddywills.com/pick/7277/lsu-vs-alabama-4-4-play-bonus-guaranteed-or-back-4-4-play.html...
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Nov 09, 2019
Freddy Wills
Louisville +7 3.3% play - A few +7's have hit in the last hour, and I don't think they'll last. I still like this at +6 or better.
Miami has to be full of themselves right now, and this is a sell high situation after they come off two huge road wins, but they have not done well following the Florida State game. Just 1-5 ATS the last 6 years, with an average margin of loss of 13.6 points ATS...
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Nov 05, 2019
Freddy Wills
Western Michigan -6.5 2.2% play
Ball State's offense leans on the run, but they are averaging 2.4 ypc less on the road. They have run the ball well in their last two games at home against Toledo and Ohio, but those two teams rank 123rd and 124th in stopping the run. Western Michigan is not great but they rank 92nd against a very challenging opponent schedule an average 62nd rushing y...
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Nov 03, 2019
Freddy Wills
Ravens +3 +100 5.5% NFL POD...
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Nov 03, 2019
Freddy Wills
Bucaneers +5 2.2% play...
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Nov 03, 2019
Freddy Wills
Chargers +4 3.3% play ...
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Nov 03, 2019
Freddy Wills
Chiefs /Vikings Over 46 2.2% play
...
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Nov 03, 2019
Freddy Wills
Bears +5.5 2.2% play ...
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Nov 02, 2019
Freddy Wills
BYU +145 3% play
BYU has lost the last two meeting with Utah State. Last year in a down year against an 11-2 Utah State team, and the year before they lost their QB in the game with a 21-7 lead as Utah State forced 7 turnovers. It’s not like BYU doesn’t have more talent they do, on average ranking 30 spots ahead of their in state rival over the last 4 years. BYU has ...
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Nov 02, 2019
Freddy Wills
Oregon -4 1.1% Free Play
Every sharp seems to be on USC for the same reason. Oregon has looked weaker against the pass, and typically have struggled vs. the Air Raid, and did so just last week against Washington State, but they were able to escape with a win after their worst defensive performance of the season. I have to think that seeing that offense just last week will help this se...
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Nov 02, 2019
Freddy Wills
Tennessee -12 2.2% PLAY
With only 3 wins, Tennessee needs this game badly and they won’t be looking past UAB after losing to Georgia State earlier in the year. They are also paying their best football of the season and should be fully motivated and excited after last week’s win, and this game will be played at night. I said it last week when we took them at home +4.5 again...
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Nov 02, 2019
Freddy Wills
Northwestern +10.5 3.3% play
Indiana is off back to back road wins, and have gotten to 6 wins and bowl eligibility, but honestly what have they proven to allow them to be a double digit favorite here? Their last 3 conference games have beena gaisnt Maryland, Nebraska, and Michigan State, and their defense has not played particularly well in any of those games against teams that really have...
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Nov 02, 2019
Freddy Wills
Washington +3.5 @-115 5.5% NCAAF POD
Before we even break this game down it is important to know that Washington has consistently out recruited Utah. Washington has more talent ranking 15th, 21, and 20th in recruiting the last 3 years, while Utah ranked 37th, 50th, and 51st. Utah plays above their talent rating because of a good home field advantage, and top 10 coaching. Those advanta...
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