Oct 14, 2023 Freddy Wills
Bowling Green +4.5 3.3% play Buffalo is not a very good team this year. They have faced a far weaker schedule compared to Bowling Green, and have played far worse at home than Bowling Green played on the road against their common opponent Liberty. I think we are buying low on Bowling Green after their 27-0 loss a week ago to Miami Ohio, but they were clearly in a bit of a flat spot aOct 14, 2023 Freddy Wills
Washington -3 3.3% play Washington -3 The Huskies have not played anyone that is on the same level as Oregon thus far, but they have played the tougher schedule and have better results. When you take out garbage time the Huskies have an average success rate of 38th against an average opponent success rate of 70th, while Oregon is at 53.5 vs. 90.4. Oregon should have lost to Texas TecOct 14, 2023 Freddy Wills
Army / Troy Under 43 2.2% play Neither team is great in the red zone on offense, and better in red zone defense so I expect a fair amount of field goals. Army has been involved in some higher totals the last few games, but they faced mobile QB’s from BC and Syracuse who combined for 192 yards on 41 carries. Troy’s Gunnar Watson is not at all a running QB so the ArmOct 14, 2023 Freddy Wills
Tennessee -3 3.3% play You literally have one of the best teams at home the past two years in the SEC against the worst road team in the SEC the past few years. The Aggies literally have not won a road game since Missouri in 2021, a game where they were 11.5 point favorites. To make matters worse they suffered their 2nd loss of the season last week against Alabama. I just don&rsOct 14, 2023 Freddy Wills
Florida +8.5 / Louisville -1 2.2% teaser Florida +8.5 Nobody wants Florida here after they lost on the road a combined 25-57, but Florida faced Kentucky and Utah, both those teams are top 10 rushing teams, and can play very good run defense as well. South Carolina ranks 120th in ypc defense, 104th in rushing success defense, and right now just aren’t a very good team ranking 89th inOct 14, 2023 Freddy Wills
Michigan State +4.5 1.1% Free The Spartans are off a bye, and despite all the noise surrounding this team and their head coach they just out gained Maryland and Iowa despite losing. I see value in this team, and Rutgers is getting a bit too much credit. I understand they have done some nice things, but at the end of the day they are still a one dimensional offense, and not a very goOct 13, 2023 Freddy Wills
Utah State +4.5 2.2% / Utah State +170 0.8% play Fresno State could be without their starting QB Mikey Keene here, and I think it's trending that way on a short week as Fresno State heads back on the road to elevation for the second week in a row. Both teams are pass first teams and run tempo, but Utah State has the better passing #'s against a tougher schedule. Fresno's defense ranksOct 08, 2023 Freddy Wills
Cowboys +3.5 5.5% NFL PODOct 08, 2023 Freddy Wills
Mahomes over 23.5 rush yards 1.1% playOct 08, 2023 Freddy Wills
Rams +4 2.2% playOct 08, 2023 Freddy Wills
Falcons -130 3% playOct 08, 2023 Freddy Wills
Texans / FAlcons Over 41.5 2.2% playOct 08, 2023 Freddy Wills
Panthers +10 -120 1.2% playOct 08, 2023 Freddy Wills
Jaguars +5 2.2% playOct 07, 2023 Freddy Wills
Iowa State +7 -120 1.2% play Iowa State has faced elite level defense so far, and the offense is gaining confidence and hitting strides. Overall they faced an average 24th ranked ypp defense, an average opponent 31st ranked passing success ranked defense, and 27th opponent success rate defense. It’s a pass first offense and they’ll get a chance to attack TCU who ranks 106Oct 07, 2023 Freddy Wills
Louisville +7 -120 5.5% NCAAF POD This game has all the ingredients of an upset win here for Louisville. Notre Dame is off back to back games that took a full effort and were high leverage results coming down to the last few plays. Louisville has the extra day of rest and prep, and will be at home at night with their first sell out crowd in 4 years. Jeff Brohm is the betOct 07, 2023 Freddy Wills
Georgia / Kentucky Under 48 3.3% play I like the under in this game. I feel Georgia has taken a step back offensively, while Kentucky's offense is a bit over rated. Both of these offenses have faced a very weak opponent defensive ranking on the season. Boht of these offenses play at a very slow pac e95th, and 123rd in seconds per play. I still feel like Georgia has an elitOct 07, 2023 Freddy Wills
Kent / Ohio Under 45.5 2.2% play Ohio's defense has been elite to start the season ranking 4th in ypp allowed, and while it's come against a weak opponent offense they will face the same this week as Kent State ranks 133rd in ypp offense, 102nd in explosive offense. There will be windy conditions in this game too. Ohio is a 24 to now a 26 point favorite for a reason. When they hOct 07, 2023 Freddy Wills
Navy / North Texas Over 61 2.2% play Playing any service academy over the total is always a concern because they run the ball a ton and they play at a slow pace, but the spots I like to take the over is when they are playing a team that is poor against the run, have a capable offense, and play up tempo. North Texas is 31st in pace, they rank 38th in yards per play, and they rank 127Oct 07, 2023 Freddy Wills
Alabama -130 3.5% play Bama is still being punished for their loss to Texas and their struggles vs. South Florida, but honestly what has Texas AM proven so far? This is nearly a 3 TD line move from the past 4 years where the spread is 24, 18.5, 18, an17 to a pk, and now back up to 2, or 2.5 since limits increased. Alabama has more impressive SEC wins vs. Ole Miss and Miss State than tOct 07, 2023 Freddy Wills
Texas/Oklahoma over 60 2.2% playOct 07, 2023 Freddy Wills
LSU -4 3.3% PLAY I’m really not buying into this MIssouri team right now. Their offense is not balanced despite ranking 21st in yards per play their average opponent ypp defense ranks 89th, and they rank 88th in rushing ypc, and while LSU’s defense has struggled it has come against teams that are top 50 in passing and rushing, and have a QB that can run. Brady Cook has onlOct 07, 2023 Freddy Wills
Oklahoma +5.5 3.3% play Texas is getting a lot of the early action with 80% tickets and $, but the spread has actually dropped and gone the other way. To me these teams seem pretty even to me, and there are more red flags on the Texas side. First off they won 49-0 last year, but that was an Oklahoma team battling major injuries and in the first year of Brent Venables scheme, which wasOct 02, 2023 Freddy Wills
Giants +8.5 / Commanders -1 3.3% playOct 01, 2023 Freddy Wills
Patriots +6 3.3% play
