Oct 08, 2022 Freddy Wills
Stanford +7 1.1% Free play Oregon State off back to back brutal loses to USC and Utah, and I don’t know how they get up for this game. Stanford is one of the only teams that have not covered a spread this season, and we are clearly getting some extra line value because of it. Stanford has not been bad this season but have had poor turnover luck with 8 fumbles lost. Part oOct 08, 2022 Freddy Wills
Iowa +3.5 5.5% NCAAF MAX POD Clear hangover spot here for Illinois in my opinion. Not only did they upset Wisconsin on the road they got their HC fired, and Brett Bielema who was fired by Wisconsin had to be very happy. Well, how do they come back home now as a favorite, a role they’re not really used to with a hungry Iowa team who will be giving it their all before they go on aOct 08, 2022 Freddy Wills
Notre Dame -175 2.5% PLAY Neutral site game here, and it should be a good one. Notre Dame has a huge advantage up front here and the OL is only going to get better coming off a bye as they rank 27th in adjusted line yards going up against BYU who ranks 118th in adjusted line yard defense. BYU’s offensive line also outside the top 100 so Notre Dame should control the trenches herOct 08, 2022 Freddy Wills
Air Force / Utah State Over 54.5 3.3% play We are getting some value on the over here for a couple of reasons. For one Air Force just played Navy in a 13-10 game, and those games always go under the total. That game is calculated into the formula that gives us the total, so I believe the formula is a bit misled because of the game against Navy. Utah State also has had vOct 08, 2022 Freddy Wills
Vanderbilt +17 2.2% play Both of these teams are run first teams and this should keep the clock ticking making this a very challenging spread for Ole Miss to cover. Ole Miss does like to play fast, but Vanderbilt counters that by being the 111th paced team in the country. Vanderbilt actually is the best running team that Ole mIss has faced and ran for over 200 yards a season ago.&nbsOct 08, 2022 Freddy Wills
Texas Tech +9.5 3.3% play There is a huge discrepancy in strength of schedule here as Oklahoma State has faced an average oppy pp differential of -0.46, and Texas Tech has faced +0.675. Tech has proven they can be competitive in these games and have been tested this season. Oklahoma State has not been tested and are already showing some huge signs of weaknesses as their defense ranksOct 08, 2022 Freddy Wills
LSU +3 2.2% PLAY We are getting the better defense at home catching points. I think we are getting value here when you factor in LSU barely got by Auburn and had to over come 17-0 defecit, but that was their first road game, and Kelly pulled Jayden Daniels after an injury, but stated that he would have stayed in the game if they were losing. They were also without LG Grrett DellingerOct 08, 2022 Freddy Wills
Indiana +22.5 2.2% play This is a sandwich spot for Michigan after their first road game at Iowa they stay on the road to face Indiana, and have Penn State next. I think Indiana can give them enough issues here as Tom Allen is a good football coach, and knows how to stop a running game. Michigan their last two visits in 2019 and 2020 came up with 87 yards and 13 rushing yards. WeOct 07, 2022 Freddy Wills
Nevada -3 -120 3% play I would call this one the Jay Norvell Bowl, as Jay Norvell did not get fired, but opted to leave for Colorado State for more $, and better facilities. He took players with him and 10 freshman recruits who verbally committed to Nevada. Nevada’s new HC Ken Wilson spoke about it and I think this game certainly means something to the players that remain, and wOct 07, 2022 Freddy Wills
Nebraska -135 2.5% play Nebraska -135 2.5% ML Play Nebraska a 3 point favorite in what should be a tight game, I think there is more value on the ML. I think Nebraska will benefit from the confidence they got from beating Indiana last week, a similar team to Rutgers, and I also think it will benefit them going on the road. The defense has been the weakness for Nebraska due toOct 07, 2022 Freddy Wills
Oklahoma +9.5 3.3 %play I’m a believer that injuries in the market are typically over rated especially at the QB situation, and we have a great spot here as Dillon Gabriel likely out with the concussion and Texas likely getting their 5* QB Quin Ewers back. This to me is just a crazy line move and when you factor in Oklahoma over the last 10 years have been a favorite in every game byOct 03, 2022 Freddy Wills
49ERS -125 4% PLAYOct 02, 2022 Freddy Wills
Patriots +9.5 2.2% playOct 02, 2022 Freddy Wills
Browns / Falcons Over 47.5 5.5% MAX PODOct 02, 2022 Freddy Wills
Commanders +3.5 1.1% Free playOct 02, 2022 Freddy Wills
Bears +8.5 / Broncos +8.5 2.2% playOct 02, 2022 Freddy Wills
Saints +3.5 2.2% playOct 02, 2022 Freddy Wills
Seahawks +3.5 3.3% playOct 01, 2022 Freddy Wills
Virginia +3 -120 3.5% play The story of Virginia is their offense despite returning Brennan Armstrong and his top 3 WR they have really struggled ranking 101st in YPP, 107th in success rate. The reason being their offensive line had to be completely replaced, and their OC left for Syracuse, and they have made many mistakes along the way due to the fact that Armstrong has faced 2nd most presOct 01, 2022 Freddy Wills
Troy +5.5 5.5% NCAAF POD Western Kentucky looks like it has not missed a beat, but look at the strength of schedule here as they have faced an opponent ypp differential of -2.8ypp. To put it simply the average defense ypp is 105th, and average ypp offense is 116. This is a team that had to replace their QB, OC, top WR, and only returned 11 starters. There are going to be some grOct 01, 2022 Freddy Wills
Auburn +8.5 2.2% play I understand the near/lucky loss to Missouri at home in OT looks really bad, and a lot of people are calling for Bryan Harsin’s head, but this team is 3-1 and have a night game against LSU that I feel should be competitive. Auburn has to go with their backup QB Robby Ashford, but I would argue he’s an upgrade over the statue of TJ Finley. Ashford canOct 01, 2022 Freddy Wills
California +4 2.2% play These two teams are pretty evenly matched and Cal is tested on the road already by their tough game at Notre Dame. Cal is +0.4 ypp differential on the season vs. an average opponent -0.2, while Washingto State is +0.2 vs. a -0.56 so very similar, but better #’s against tougher competition for Cal. I think Wash State is maybe getting too much credit for thOct 01, 2022 Freddy Wills
Texas A&M +4.5 3.3% play I think these two teams are pretty even, but we have a spread over 4 and yet 68% of the bets are on Miss State here. The Aggies DC Durkin has faced Mike Leach each of the last two seasons, and while they gave up a ton of points they held them to 24 and 21 points as Ole Miss won both of those games. The Aggies lost last year’s game in this sandwOct 01, 2022 Freddy Wills
Michigan State +7.5 1.65% / Mich St +250 0.5% play I think this is worth a shot as a perfect storm of weather, wind/rain should help cover up some of the secondary issues Michigan State is having, and buy low situation on the Spartans here that could get the running game going here. Maryland's QB Tagovailoa is also ? for hte game, ribs along with his top target Jarret (head), but expect thOct 01, 2022 Freddy Wills
Iowa State -3 3.3% play Iowa State is off a very tough loss last week at home to a very good Baylor team. Iowa State now goes on the road to face a 4-0 SU & ATS Kansas team under Lance Leipold that’s getting a lot of hype, but probably too much at this point, which is one reason we are going to back Iowa State here with a short #. This line was just -34 Iowa State a season
