Nov 11, 2017 Freddy Wills
Oklahoma -6.5 4.4% Play I am backing this team for a second week in a row. All this talk about Oklahoma not having a defense has given us some line value as the line has moved 1.5 points. I actually think this is a good match-up for them facing TCU whose strength is running the ball now passing the ball. Kenny Hill's confidence is really not there right now in my opinion andNov 11, 2017 Freddy Wills
Tenn +12 2.2% Play Missouri has covered the spread 5 straight weeks, but who have they really beat? They covered it by 27.5, 26.5, and 33 the last three weeks alone, and faced Idaho, Connecticut, and a troubled Florida team with an interim coach. Here they get Tennessee who I realize is in a similar situation as Florida, but it seems like this team is fighting a bit for their coach. MissoNov 11, 2017 Freddy Wills
Old Dominion +295 2% PlayFirst of all Old Dominion's bowl hopes are still alive at 3-6 and after their 6-0 win last week according to head coach Wilders the energy in the locker room has changed. The key here is whether or not they can run and stop the run. That has been the key to victory for them this year In wins they have been allowing just 3.17 ypc with only 2 TD's. WhNov 11, 2017 Freddy Wills
Utah +1.5 5.5% NCAAF PODI believe Utah is floating under the radar from their 4 game losing streak earlier in the year. We backed them last week, and they really seem to find their grove in the second half. Now that their QB Tyler Huntley has been back a full 3 games and they have an extra day to prepare for this game I think they will be in good shape. Utah's offense can do someNov 11, 2017 Freddy Wills
Navy -4.5 1.1% Free Play Navy is off 3 straight losses, but two have been against top 25 teams Memphis, and Central Florida and the third against Temple who had an extra week to prepare against the triple option with a defensive minded coach. SMU just fell to Central Florida at home by only 7 points where they gave everything they had. I expect a bit of a hang over here on the roaNov 11, 2017 Freddy Wills
Michigan -16.5 2.2% play Maryland could be down to their 4th string QB here, but even if they aren't they have really struggled offensively against good defenses. They are ranked 115th in passing yards, and 56th rushing. However, when they don't rush for 150 yards they have averaged only 14.5 points. They lost those 4 games by an average of 29.25 points per game. Here they fNov 11, 2017 Freddy Wills
Auburn +120 3% Play I like this match-up for Auburn at home. Their two losses were in games where they struggled to protect their QB. LSU ranks #6 in sack % and Clemson ranks #2. Georgia has a great pass defense ranking #3 overall, but they haven't faced any good passing offenses and come in ranking #76 at getting to the QB. They have faced 1 team in the top 57 in QB rNov 11, 2017 Freddy Wills
Duke -2.5 3.3% play Duke with an extra week to prepare always plays the option well. Army is off a huge win over Air Force 21-0 where they did not have to attempt a pass. Army really only cares about their last game of the season now when they face Navy having already accepted their bowl invitation to the Armed Forces Bowl in Fort Worth. Duke is used to defending the triple option as they plNov 10, 2017 Freddy Wills
Washington/Stanford Under 48.5 1.1% PlayMy numbers favor Washington, but Stanford is a tough team to go against at home as a dog. They are 7-0 ATS the last 7 times as a home dog with 6 outright upsets and 3 times they were featured against a top 10 team like they are tonight. However, Stanford's most glaring weakness (run defense) is Washington's biggest strength. At the end of tNov 09, 2017 Freddy Wills
Appalachian State -17.5 2.2% play I believe there is value in this line with an angry Appalachian State team heading home after two straight losses. App State got their star running back, back last game as he ran for 114 yards on 21 carries. When he's healthy and averages over 5 yards per carry this team has scored 54, 45, and 45 points. He had 8.4 yards per carry against Georgia Southern lasNov 08, 2017 Freddy Wills
Eastern Mich / Central Mich Under 50.5 2.2% play Eastern Michigan has had a bit of a tougher schedule and have lost a lot of close games. I initially leaned with them, but after looking at it more I noticed Central Michigan far more dominant passing and defending the pass vs. the 4 common opponents. Central Michigan faced 3 of 4 of those opponents on the road while Eastern Michigan faced 3 ofNov 08, 2017 Freddy Wills
One key of my handicapping is taking my computer ratings and which ones predict under dogs to win outright. I take that list of 20-25 teams, and those are the games I break down in greater detail. Here is my computer line compared to Vegas line in some of the key games for week #11.Washington @ Stanford (Vegas Lines -6, My Computer -6.5) slight value to Washington.Michigan @ Maryland (Nov 07, 2017 Freddy Wills
php_snippet_podcastforever Last week my favorite podcast leans went 6-2 ATS. Unfortunately only 4 made it onto my card and I went 2-2 ATS for those. We went 5-5 ATS and move to 48-52 ATS -36% ROI. Still confident we will show a profit by the end of the year. Last year from November 3rd on we had a 44.36% ROI to put things in perspective. Our Friday commute podcast was a dud again this week asNov 06, 2017 Freddy Wills
Packers +115 3% playNov 05, 2017 Freddy Wills
49ERS +8.5 / CHIEFS +8.5 3.3% PLAYNov 05, 2017 Freddy Wills
Titans -3.5 5.5% NFL PODNov 05, 2017 Freddy Wills
Colts +7 -115 3.3% playNov 05, 2017 Freddy Wills
Broncos +7 3.3% playNov 04, 2017 Freddy Wills
Texas +235 3% play TCU's bubble got burst last week as they lost an ugly game at Iowa State 14-7 without scoring an offensive TD. TCU's QB Kenny Hill turned the ball over twice inside Iowa State's 10 yard line and his confidence has to be shaken. Last year he had a bad game at Kansas of all places throwing 1 TD and 3 INT's in a 1 point victory. TCU then went 2-4 the rest of the way as he threNov 04, 2017 Freddy Wills
California -1 / UTSA -1 4.4% TeaserCal - is in a good spot needing a win to have a shot to go to a bowl game playing an Oregon State team that has played well the last two weeks, but have done so at home. Since firing their coach they have played extremely well, but they nearly beat Stanford at home in a weird spot and Stanford was playing without their star player Bryce Love. The weirNov 04, 2017 Freddy Wills
Oklahoma +105 5.5% play of the day This is by far the best offense that Oklahoma State has faced. Baker Mayfield is a beat with his 23 passing TD's and just 3 INT's and I love how fiery he is in games. He really gets his team fired up. IT was obviously when they went on the road and defeated Ohio State that they were the better team in that game. I just think this team loses focus at times aNov 04, 2017 Freddy Wills
West Virginia -3 -1.05 4.5% play Iowa State going on the road after 4 weeks in a row of covering the spread by 14+ points. It's rare that you see a top 15 team going on the road facing a team that is not ranked and they are under dogs, but we have that here with Iowa State and for good reason. Iowa State is one dimensional offensively and have struggled to get the running game going all yearNov 04, 2017 Freddy Wills
Uconn +24 2.2% play / Uconn +1420 0.25% South Florida's bubble got burst last week and I have been saying for weeks they were a vulnerable team. This is the third week in a row we are fading South Florida and why not we are 2-0 ATS in doing so. This is a team that is not nearly as good as last year offensively where they are one dimensional. South Florida's defense has played well and carriedNov 04, 2017 Freddy Wills
Vanderbilt -10.5 1.1% Free Play I've been looking for opportunities to fade Western Kentucky who has Marshall on deck. Vanderbilt has been in a brutal stretch of SEC games and this is a major step down in strength of schedule. Western Kentucky is not even close to the same team as last year, and their offense is going to struggle here. Vanderbilt's offense is actually playing very well and uNov 04, 2017 Freddy Wills
Florida +140 3% play Missouri is a different team against non-power 5 opponents. Over the past two years they have averaged 63 points per game against non-power 5 opponents. Then they play a power 5 team and only average 20 points per game. Drew Lock, the Missouri QB playing with a ton of confidence right know but he's going to face off against a Florida team that will be defensive minded wi
