Sep 22, 2018
Freddy Wills
Ohio +7.5 3.3% play
Just 3 weeks ago Ohio would have been a 3 point favorite, but Cincinnati is 3-0 SU & ATS after some big wins including one as a double digit road dog at UCLA to open up the season. They beat Miami Ohio as a pk in rough weather conditions 21-0 and here we are.
We are getting serious line value here and Ohio finally looked like Ohio in the second half against Virginia ...
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Sep 22, 2018
Freddy Wills
Kent St/ Ole Miss Over 74 2.2% play
I expect Kent State to continue their high octane offense averaging 16.33 possessions per game which is good for 5th in the nation. Ole Miss comes in at 15, and I expect they'll be able to score on 10 of their 15 drives in this game. I wouldn't be surprised to see Ole Miss in the 60's here as they look to rebound from their game last week against Alabama whe...
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Sep 21, 2018
Freddy Wills
USC -3 -125 4% PLAY - Buy 1/2We are getting a ton of value here with USC. USC definitely an overrated team this year and expected to take a step back, but I think they looked good in the first half on the road against Texas before they had too many mistakes. Coming back home facing a Washington State team that they have revenge against should help. Clay Helton is 1-10 ATS as a do...
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Sep 21, 2018
Freddy Wills
Illinois +28 3.3% play This line is off by 4-5 points in my opinion it should be around 23 or 23.5. We also have an unusual situation here with Penn State traveling on a short week, facing an opponent they have no seen since 2015, and playing at 9pm at night. Penn State also clearly looking ahead to next week's home game against Ohio State while Illinois has a bye. Illinois ...
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Sep 16, 2018
Freddy Wills
Steelers -4.5 3.3% play ...
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Sep 16, 2018
Freddy Wills
Titans +3 5.5% NFL POD ...
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Sep 16, 2018
Freddy Wills
Colts +6 3.3% play ...
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Sep 16, 2018
Freddy Wills
**Correction - Falcons pk / Giants +9 4.4% Teaser ...
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Sep 15, 2018
Freddy Wills
Utah +5 4.4% NCAAF POD @ 10pm et
I like the Utes to pull the upset here. Utah has been a tough out for Washington in their last 3 matchups. Utah won by 11, they lost by 7 on a last minute kick return TD, they lost by 3 last year as they gave up 10 points in the final minute.
Utah to me has the better QB in this one in Tyler Huntley who threw for 293 passing yards at Washington last year 2 T...
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Sep 15, 2018
Freddy Wills
Arkansas pk / SD State +11.5 4.4% Teaser of the Week
Arkansas led 27-9 entering the 4th quarter against Colorado State on the road before going on to lose 27-34 in shocking fashion. Losing to Colorado State who got blasted by Hawaii and Colorado the previous two weeks is not a good look, but I would argue Colorado State is better than what they showed in the first two games. Arkansas still loo...
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Sep 15, 2018
Freddy Wills
Auburn -9.5 3.3% play I like Auburn a lot in this game against LSU. LSU's offensive line is going to have real difficult time protecting their QB in this game, and they will have trouble scoring points. LSU in week 2 had a 31-0 victory over SE Louisiana, but only put up 335 total yards. In week 1 against Miami they scored 33 points, but only had 296 total yards. Auburn's defense is better than...
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Sep 15, 2018
Freddy Wills
SMU +36 1.1% Free PlayI feel like this line might be off by at least a TD here. SMU played a good game early against TCU last week as it was 14-12 at the half last week before they were shutout in the second half eventually losing 42-12. They lost by 30 points, but gave up two non-offensive TD's so the game itself was much closer than the final indicated. Michigan meanwhile got re...
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Sep 15, 2018
Freddy Wills
Oklahoma State -2.5 2.2% play @ 3:30pm ET
Boise State is a popular dog this week that I'd look to fade. Oklahoma State is a very well coached team under Mike Gundy and he has done a far better job recruiting here compared to Bryan Harsin at Boise State. On average over the last 4 years Oklahoma State has had a recruiting class that is 29 places ahead of Boise State.
Oklahoma State is not ofte...
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Sep 15, 2018
Freddy Wills
Illinois +10.5 3.3% play @ 3:30PM et
Illinois returns 16 starters, and already their offense has scored more points in back to back games 31 and 34 than in any game last year. South Florida has Virginia Tech transfer AJ Bush at QB, who is questionable this game, but the unknown of MJ Rivers, another mobile QB is something I am comfortable with in this game. Illinois game plan is to slow the ga...
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Sep 15, 2018
Freddy Wills
Iowa State +17.5 3.3% play A lot of people are going to be jumping on Oklahoma this week. They have looked dominant in their first two weeks of the season, and there is the "revenge" angle that the media is going to hype up from last year when Iowa State went into Oklahoma and shocked the world. There is just too much value here on Iowa State, a team I can actually see pulling the...
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Sep 15, 2018
Freddy Wills
MTSU +33 3.3% PLAY @ 12PM ET
This is far too many points for Georgia to be laying against a very good C-USA team in Middle Tennessee with 17 returning starters and an experienced QB. The reason is Georgia looked fantastic last week against South Carolina on the road, and Middle Tennessee has already lost to an SEC opponent of lesser quality in Vanderbilt 35-7. That was a very misleading final ...
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Sep 15, 2018
Freddy Wills
Vanderbilt +13.5 2.2% @ 2:30PM ET
I missed out on the 14.5 earlier in the week, but I think there is still a good amount of line value here with Vanderbilt who sports the better QB in this match-up. Vanderbilt also looks much improved on defense while Notre Dame is really struggling on the offensive line and Brandon Wimbush is simply not a very good throwing QB.
Notre Dame offensive line is a...
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Sep 13, 2018
Freddy Wills
Wake Forest +6.5 2.2% play Everyone is on Boston College here and Wake Forest is getting absolutely no respect in my opinion. This game has been moved up because of the incoming hurricane and weather conditions won't be ideal with the winds. This typically favors a run first team like Boston College, but I think Wake Forest is prepared and has a better shot of stopping the run tha...
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Sep 11, 2018
Freddy Wills
Here is an update on some of the things I am tracking.
Fading the AP Pre-season Top 10
9-11 ATS so far, and 56% Success rate over the last 6 years. Favorite teams to fade this week are Oklahoma, Washington, Georgia, and Miami.
Group of 5 Head Coaches in year #2 following 9+ wins ATS:
Fading Florida Atlantic, and Fresno State has resulted in 1-3 ATS which improves the trend to 15-28 ATS.
1...
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Sep 09, 2018
Freddy Wills
Cardinals -1.5 2.2% play ...
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Sep 09, 2018
Freddy Wills
Bengals +121 5.5% POD ...
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Sep 09, 2018
Freddy Wills
Vikings -6 3.3% play ...
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Sep 09, 2018
Freddy Wills
Dolphins +105 2.2% play ...
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Sep 08, 2018
Freddy Wills
San Jose State +34 1.1% Play The Spartans will head on the road to play at Washington State. I think we are getting 6 points of line value here as Washington State went on the road and shocked Wyoming with a big margin of victory. I know a lot of sharps that were all over Wyoming, and I would have played Washington State. This week is the week you would definitely look to fade them. ...
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Sep 08, 2018
Freddy Wills
Kentucky +14
2.2% play Kentucky had 3 defensive players turn the NFL down to return for their senior season. The idea? They want to win this game and leave their mark on this program. They nearly did it last year holding a 24-14 lead in the final minutes before losing 28-27 in heartbreaking fashion.
Florida is getting far too much respect here in the number after defeating an FCS foes ...
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