Sep 10, 2022
Freddy Wills
UTSA/Army Over 54.5 2.2% play
UTSA lost a ton off a veteran defense from last year, and I think it will show here against triple option of Army especially after their intense game against Houston last week. Now they have to travel all the way to NY to face the triple option they are not accustomed to facing. In 2020 they allowed 306 rushing yards. On the flip side Army's defense...
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Sep 10, 2022
Freddy Wills
South Carolina +8.5 2.2% play
First of all, Arkansas and South Carolina were among my favorite teams to back last year. I love both of these head coaches, and the players seem to show they do as well, but to me the value is on the Gamecocks. Arkansas had a much tougher challenge in week 1 against Cincinnati that they likely prepared for more than South Carolina against Georgia State.&...
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Sep 10, 2022
Freddy Wills
Kentucky + 6 3.3% play
I think we are getting a ton of value with Kentucky here after Florida upset Utah last week in the swamp. Anthony Richardson is a top 5 Heisman candidate and an unranked Flroida team is now ranked #12, it’s almost laughable. I like Billy Napier as the HC, but lets just slow down a bit. Even Napier said it was going to take some time, and Kentuc...
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Sep 08, 2022
Freddy Wills
Rams +8.5 / Vikings +7.5 3.3% play ...
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Sep 04, 2022
Freddy Wills
Florida State +4.5 3.3% play
I don't really trust LSU who has a ton of moving parts here with a new staff, new players all over the place going up against a hungry FSU team that wons to kick their season off with a big win. Mike Norvell has FSU ready to get back to a bowl game, and they were close the last two seasons against Brian Kelly's Notre Dame team putitn ugp 26 points and then 38 l...
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Sep 03, 2022
Freddy Wills
Syracuse +5 2.2% play
This is a big divisional game to kick off the season in the ACC with two head coaches feeling the pressure of their jobs on the line. With that said there is a lot of love in the market for Louisville due to QB Malik Cunningham, but I'm not so sure they should be a road favorite here, and the line has moved up to +5, giving us even more value on Syracuse, a team that ...
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Sep 03, 2022
Freddy Wills
Ohio St -16.5 1.1% free...
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Sep 03, 2022
Freddy Wills
Utah -2.5 3.3% play
The biggest concern for Utah backers in my opinion is heading down the swamp, and dealing with the humidity, but I don't have concerns with Utah. First of all they are coming from altitude and you naturally are in better shape, and Utah has prepared for this by practicing indoors with humidiy and with we balls.
Utah returns 14 starters from last year's Pac 12 Championsh...
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Sep 03, 2022
Freddy Wills
Ohio +4.5 2.2% play
Whenever I see Willie Taggart on the road or a favorite I circle the game to look at fading FAU. It's even juicier if he's coming off an impressive performance and that's what we have here as they were very good at home vs. Charlotte. In two years FAU has gone 2-8 on the road under Taggart, and when facing a top 60 ypp defense they have gone 2-9, averaging only 13....
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Sep 03, 2022
Freddy Wills
Georgia/Oregon Under 54.5 2.2% play
Dan Lanning takes over at Oregon, and he is very familiar with Georgia’s offense, as a defensive minded coach I think that makes a big difference here. Oregon also has a lot of talent on the defensive side of the ball, and Georgia lost a ton of talent on offense including their top RB, and top targets Pickens and Burton. Kirby Smart has been a...
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Sep 03, 2022
Freddy Wills
North Carolina +1 1.1% Free PLay
I’ll take the extra 3 points of value as North Carolina opened -4 now down to -1 for the instate show down between App State and North Carolina. App State is very much a public dog, as the public knows very well that this team has been able to upset the P5 opponents. In fact they upset North Carolina in 2019, in Mack Brown’s first season, ...
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Sep 03, 2022
Freddy Wills
Rutgers +7 2.2% play
By brand it seems like Rutgers is the far worse team, and that is giving us some value in the line in my opinion, but closer looks reveals the fact that Rutgers is playing in the tougher conference Big Ten and had similar statistics last year against a far tougher schedule. For instance their opponents average YPP differential was +0.16, while BC’s were -0.32. &nb...
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Sep 02, 2022
Freddy Wills
Indiana -1 2.2% play
Indiana is really flying under the radar here, and they go up against an Illinois team that blew out Wyoming last week and is getting all kinds of great press. I’m not buying into Illinois, and the praise everyone is giving their transfer QB Tommy Devito who could not hack it at Syracuse. Wyoming also had huge roster issues with transfers, and not surprised ...
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Sep 01, 2022
Freddy Wills
Penn State -3.5 2.2% play
Purdue is a bit of a public dog here, and I like Purdue as a dog under Jeff Brohm, but not in this spot to open the season against a more talented team. Purdue is not going to sneak up on anyone at this point, and I'm sure Franklin has highlighted this to his team as Purdue has had major upsets under Brohm including twice against a #2 ranked team. I think it...
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Sep 01, 2022
Freddy Wills
Central Michigan +21.5 2.2% play3
Spread has moved 2 points in favor of Oklahoma State, but has pretty much stopped there despite Oklahoma State getting a lof o the action. I totally respect Mike Gundy as a head coach, but these are the type of games he doesn't typicaly cover against the group of 5. They also lost 7 of their 11 defnesive starters, which was the major strenght of this ...
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Aug 27, 2022
Freddy Wills
UTEP +1.5 1.1% Free Play
UTEP's head coach Dana Dimel has continued to improve this team each year, and after a 6-1 start last year they finished 7-5, but got those ever important bowl practices. This could be his best team yet, and they are very strong in the trenches where it matters. They have a very strong OL, and arguably the best defensive line in the conference. North Tex...
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Aug 27, 2022
Freddy Wills
Northwestern +11.5 2.2% play
Any time your see Pat Fitzgerald as an underdog and a double digit underdog you have to take a look. Last year was probably an outlier, and it makes sense they had just 4 starters returning on defense, with a new DC, off a covid year. This year I expect to see a much improved Northwestern team, that has a very experienced OL, and a QB in Ryan Hilinski who ...
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Aug 15, 2022
Freddy Wills
Every year we try to identify some over valued College Football teams, and it typically starts with the AP TOP 10. If you just simply fade the AP TOP 10 you WILL lose money. Nothing is ever quite that easy, but we broke it down with situational spots where we feel it makes logical sense to find an edge.
(2021's article here)
Here is a look at the top ten college football team...
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Feb 13, 2022
Freddy Wills
Bengals +4.5 5.5% MAX NFL POD...
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Feb 13, 2022
Freddy Wills
1st quarter Under 10 -164 1.5% free play...
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Feb 13, 2022
Freddy Wills
First Score FG +150 0.5% play
First Score FG +150 0.5% play
Joe Burrow Under 11.5 rushing yards 0.55% play to win 0.5%
Van Jefferson longest reception Over 18.5 0.55% play ...
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Feb 13, 2022
Freddy Wills
Highest scoring Half (2nd Half -136) 0.75% play
Highest scoring Half (2nd Half -136) 0.75% play ...
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Feb 13, 2022
Freddy Wills
Joe Mixon Over 24.5 receiving yards ...
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Feb 13, 2022
Freddy Wills
Longest FG (Bengals -150) 0.75% play / ...
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Feb 13, 2022
Freddy Wills
Van Jefferson longest reception Over 18.5 0.55% play ...
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