Nov 04, 2017
Freddy Wills
Uconn +24 2.2% play / Uconn +1420 0.25%
South Florida's bubble got burst last week and I have been saying for weeks they were a vulnerable team. This is the third week in a row we are fading South Florida and why not we are 2-0 ATS in doing so. This is a team that is not nearly as good as last year offensively where they are one dimensional. South Florida's defense has played well and carried...
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Nov 04, 2017
Freddy Wills
Vanderbilt -10.5 1.1% Free Play
I've been looking for opportunities to fade Western Kentucky who has Marshall on deck. Vanderbilt has been in a brutal stretch of SEC games and this is a major step down in strength of schedule. Western Kentucky is not even close to the same team as last year, and their offense is going to struggle here. Vanderbilt's offense is actually playing very well and u...
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Nov 04, 2017
Freddy Wills
Florida +140 3% play
Missouri is a different team against non-power 5 opponents. Over the past two years they have averaged 63 points per game against non-power 5 opponents. Then they play a power 5 team and only average 20 points per game. Drew Lock, the Missouri QB playing with a ton of confidence right know but he's going to face off against a Florida team that will be defensive minded wi...
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Nov 04, 2017
Freddy Wills
Indiana +14 3.3% play +420 1% play
There is value in this line because Indiana lost at Maryland last week. Indiana actually outgained Maryland 483-345 and had 35 first downs to 18. The good news is Indiana's defense was only on the field for 18 plays which is the key to upsetting Wisconsin this week which I do feel like they have a shot. Indiana has been close a few times this season. Even t...
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Nov 03, 2017
Freddy Wills
Utah -6.5 3.3% play
Utah has to get back on track after four straight losses. They actually lost ATS by 30 and 23 points and Vegas has had to make an adjustment. Actually teams that have not covered the spread in back to back weeks by 14+ points (2TD's) have gone 8-2 ATS that third week. This team is much better than they have played of late after nearly beating Stanford and USC they have had...
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Nov 02, 2017
Freddy Wills
Northern Illinois +8.5 4.4% POD
Northern Illinois has faced 5 top 76 teams compared to Toledo's 2. They both fared similarly against Eastern Michigan at home, and overall I would say these two teams are about even with their strengths and weaknesses. I'd say the biggest advantage in this game is Northern Illinois rushing offense against Toledo's rushing defense which ranks 104th. Northern Ill...
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Oct 30, 2017
Freddy Wills
I appreciate everyone that has believed in me. Thank you for sticking with me. It's been a while since we have had this much bad luck in a week. Let's clear the air. I'm not making excuses and my Friday Podcast play on Florida State was just atrocious as Boston College not Florida State not only covered the spread but did so by 38 points! It was the start to a 3-4-1 ATS weekend. Good news is...
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Oct 29, 2017
Freddy Wills
Lions +3 5.5% NFL POD AT +100 ...
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Oct 29, 2017
Freddy Wills
Seahawks -6 2.2% play ...
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Oct 29, 2017
Freddy Wills
49ers +13 3.3% Play ...
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Oct 28, 2017
Freddy Wills
Clemson -14 2.2% play
Clemson holds some value this week off a bye and Georgia Tech off a misleading 14 point win over Wake Forest, and another misleading loss to Miami who outgained Georgia Tech by 200 yards. This is the second week in a row that Georgia Tech will face a team off a bye, but this team on the road. Clemson has held Georgia Tech's triple option to less than 100 yards each of the...
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Oct 28, 2017
Freddy Wills
Houston +11 3.3% play
Houston has extra time to prepare for this game as they played last Thursday night. They will be the best defense that South Florida has faced and it's not even close. Yes Houston ranks 58th in yards per play but they faced 4 top 30 offenses and held them all to season lows before Texas Tech only scored 13 a week ago. They held Memphis in check for the first half and ble...
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Oct 28, 2017
Freddy Wills
NC State +7 3.3% play
Both teams come in with 1 loss to SEC team. NC State lost despite doubling South Carolina in yardage while Notre Dame found a way to lose despite being +2 in TO Margin. To me both teams are pretty even with Notre Dame's strength being their offensive line, and NC State's strength being their defensive line. However, there is line value on the road team here with NC State...
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Oct 28, 2017
Freddy Wills
TCU -6.5 4.4% NCAAF POD
I liked the Horned Frogs here who are probably an unpopular favorite this week. Iowa State has covered 3 straight weeks by 14+ points against the spread and are now ranked #25, but they are stepping up in class this week against TCU.
TCU's attention is on Iowa State who they know are a threat to their college football playoff spot. This team is well focused for this ga...
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Oct 28, 2017
Freddy Wills
FIU +17 1.1% PLAY
Marshall has been a hot team and are 6-1 ATS, but they have covered 3 of their last 4 games by more than 2 TD's against the spread. They are a sell high type of team that I'm looking to fade down the stretch. FIU, comes in off a bye and extra time to prepare most likely feeling disrespected in this spot still in contention for the division. While Marshall might be peaking a...
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Oct 28, 2017
Freddy Wills
Virginia +135 2% Dog of the Week
A couple of weeks ago and Virginia might have been a short favorite. Pitt last week was actually trailing 17-7 at Duke before they were able to get a 92 yard TD run to make it 17-14 before they went on to win and cover for us. Virginia was a 7 point favorite last week against Boston College which just seems wrong now, but I think this is a big over reaction. I...
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Oct 28, 2017
Freddy Wills
Wake Forest +3 2.2% Play
Wake Forest had a 21-13 lead over Georgia Tech last week and ended up losing 38-24 in misleading fashion. I think they have an excellent shot at upsetting Louisville who is just off a big road victory at Florida State. They were lucky to be in that spot as Florida State fumbled with under 2 play while heading into the red zone. That gives us line value here.
Wak...
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Oct 28, 2017
Freddy Wills
Baylor +9 3.3% play
This is exactly the type of game that Tom Herman would drop before facing another opponent in TCU on deck. Baylor has been close against Oklahoma and West Virginia two ranked opponents. Texas is giving Sam Ehlinger a week off and going with Shane Buechele, the starter from last year. I think Buechele's confidence probably hurting here and Texas main goal is to defeat a tea...
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Oct 27, 2017
Freddy Wills
Florida State -3 -1.20 as a 3.3% play.
Boston College was on our sell high list for this week's podcast which you can find by visiting freddywills.com or by searching itunes for college football betting. BC has covered the spread by more than 14 points in back to back week's and have been impressive in doing so against the likes of Louisville and Virginia. Boston College got their running gam...
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Oct 26, 2017
Freddy Wills
Vegas Mistakes Week #8 9 out of the 20 games were from the power 5. Proving that there is line value in both power 5 and non-power 5 conference. 57% of the mistakes we have tracked this season through week's 2-7 have been from the power 5 conference.
Missouri covered by 33 over Idaho. This was our Friday commute podcast play. Now 5-2 ATS on those plays this year! 4 of those wins have cove...
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Oct 22, 2017
Freddy Wills
Broncos pk 2.2% PLay ...
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Oct 22, 2017
Freddy Wills
Cleveland Browns +6 5.5% NFL POD ...
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Oct 22, 2017
Freddy Wills
Packers +4.5 3.3% play / Packers +177 1% play ...
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Oct 22, 2017
Freddy Wills
Ravens +5.5 2.2% play ...
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Oct 21, 2017
Freddy Wills
Michigan +9.5 5.5% NCAAF POD
Michigan is getting a lot of points in this one in my opinion and Harbough has only lost 7 games since he's been at Michigan and they have been all close besides a loss to Ohio State, a team that went onto win the National Championship. Otherwise his losses have been by 4, 1, 1, 3, 4, and 7.
Michigan can shut down Barkley in this game as they are the #5 run defe...
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