Nov 18, 2017 Freddy Wills
Temple +14 3.3% play / Temple +447 1% playTemple needs this game big time if they are going to go to a bowl game with 5 wins and they have an extra day to prepare. Central Florida is undefeated and playing with a ton of pressure. Not only do they have a bit of a look ahead with South Florida next week waiting for them, but their head coach Scott Frost is being rumored for the Florida hNov 17, 2017 Freddy Wills
MTSU -3 -105 2.5% PLAY I like the Blue Raiders in this spot as Western Kentucky is struggling to get that win to get to a bowl game. It's no coincidence that they are 0-3 in their last 3 by running into a couple of quality teams that can pass the ball. All year they had faced just 1 team in the top 120 in passing QB rating. They faced 120, 85, 122, 123, 127, and 129. Sure their pass defensNov 15, 2017 Freddy Wills
Toledo -17 2.2% play Toledo will bounce back here on the road against an awful Bowling Green team. Toledo gave up 38 points on the road against Ohio last week in a meaningless game for them. They win out and they return to the MAC Championship game which I believe they will. For Bowling Green they have gone 2-8 to this point and have lost big against the conference best teams, 31 to NortNov 12, 2017 Freddy Wills
Cowboys +160 2% playNov 12, 2017 Freddy Wills
Bills +130 5.5% NFL PODNov 12, 2017 Freddy Wills
BROWNS +10.5 3.3% PLAYNov 11, 2017 Freddy Wills
Air Force -3 2.2% Play Air Force is a short favorite based on their 21-0 loss against Army last week, and Wyoming's upset of Colorado State at home. Wyoming has been playing lights out defensively this year, but their one glaring weakness is against the run where they rank 76th in yards allowed. Wyoming's offense is just flat out atrocious and if they are not getting turnovers theNov 11, 2017 Freddy Wills
Notre Dame -3 3.3% PlayI think the Irish are well prepared for this game against Miami. Notre Dame has by far faced the tougher schedule. They have the 13th ranked offense from a yards per play perspective and have faced an average defense ranking 44th. They did struggle against Georgia, but Georgia was stout against the pass and run. Miami definitely seems to have some holNov 11, 2017 Freddy Wills
Oklahoma -6.5 4.4% Play I am backing this team for a second week in a row. All this talk about Oklahoma not having a defense has given us some line value as the line has moved 1.5 points. I actually think this is a good match-up for them facing TCU whose strength is running the ball now passing the ball. Kenny Hill's confidence is really not there right now in my opinion andNov 11, 2017 Freddy Wills
Tenn +12 2.2% Play Missouri has covered the spread 5 straight weeks, but who have they really beat? They covered it by 27.5, 26.5, and 33 the last three weeks alone, and faced Idaho, Connecticut, and a troubled Florida team with an interim coach. Here they get Tennessee who I realize is in a similar situation as Florida, but it seems like this team is fighting a bit for their coach. MissoNov 11, 2017 Freddy Wills
Old Dominion +295 2% PlayFirst of all Old Dominion's bowl hopes are still alive at 3-6 and after their 6-0 win last week according to head coach Wilders the energy in the locker room has changed. The key here is whether or not they can run and stop the run. That has been the key to victory for them this year In wins they have been allowing just 3.17 ypc with only 2 TD's. WhNov 11, 2017 Freddy Wills
Utah +1.5 5.5% NCAAF PODI believe Utah is floating under the radar from their 4 game losing streak earlier in the year. We backed them last week, and they really seem to find their grove in the second half. Now that their QB Tyler Huntley has been back a full 3 games and they have an extra day to prepare for this game I think they will be in good shape. Utah's offense can do someNov 11, 2017 Freddy Wills
Navy -4.5 1.1% Free Play Navy is off 3 straight losses, but two have been against top 25 teams Memphis, and Central Florida and the third against Temple who had an extra week to prepare against the triple option with a defensive minded coach. SMU just fell to Central Florida at home by only 7 points where they gave everything they had. I expect a bit of a hang over here on the roaNov 11, 2017 Freddy Wills
Michigan -16.5 2.2% play Maryland could be down to their 4th string QB here, but even if they aren't they have really struggled offensively against good defenses. They are ranked 115th in passing yards, and 56th rushing. However, when they don't rush for 150 yards they have averaged only 14.5 points. They lost those 4 games by an average of 29.25 points per game. Here they fNov 11, 2017 Freddy Wills
Auburn +120 3% Play I like this match-up for Auburn at home. Their two losses were in games where they struggled to protect their QB. LSU ranks #6 in sack % and Clemson ranks #2. Georgia has a great pass defense ranking #3 overall, but they haven't faced any good passing offenses and come in ranking #76 at getting to the QB. They have faced 1 team in the top 57 in QB rNov 11, 2017 Freddy Wills
Duke -2.5 3.3% play Duke with an extra week to prepare always plays the option well. Army is off a huge win over Air Force 21-0 where they did not have to attempt a pass. Army really only cares about their last game of the season now when they face Navy having already accepted their bowl invitation to the Armed Forces Bowl in Fort Worth. Duke is used to defending the triple option as they plNov 10, 2017 Freddy Wills
Washington/Stanford Under 48.5 1.1% PlayMy numbers favor Washington, but Stanford is a tough team to go against at home as a dog. They are 7-0 ATS the last 7 times as a home dog with 6 outright upsets and 3 times they were featured against a top 10 team like they are tonight. However, Stanford's most glaring weakness (run defense) is Washington's biggest strength. At the end of tNov 09, 2017 Freddy Wills
Appalachian State -17.5 2.2% play I believe there is value in this line with an angry Appalachian State team heading home after two straight losses. App State got their star running back, back last game as he ran for 114 yards on 21 carries. When he's healthy and averages over 5 yards per carry this team has scored 54, 45, and 45 points. He had 8.4 yards per carry against Georgia Southern lasNov 08, 2017 Freddy Wills
Eastern Mich / Central Mich Under 50.5 2.2% play Eastern Michigan has had a bit of a tougher schedule and have lost a lot of close games. I initially leaned with them, but after looking at it more I noticed Central Michigan far more dominant passing and defending the pass vs. the 4 common opponents. Central Michigan faced 3 of 4 of those opponents on the road while Eastern Michigan faced 3 ofNov 08, 2017 Freddy Wills
One key of my handicapping is taking my computer ratings and which ones predict under dogs to win outright. I take that list of 20-25 teams, and those are the games I break down in greater detail. Here is my computer line compared to Vegas line in some of the key games for week #11.Washington @ Stanford (Vegas Lines -6, My Computer -6.5) slight value to Washington.Michigan @ Maryland (Nov 07, 2017 Freddy Wills
php_snippet_podcastforever Last week my favorite podcast leans went 6-2 ATS. Unfortunately only 4 made it onto my card and I went 2-2 ATS for those. We went 5-5 ATS and move to 48-52 ATS -36% ROI. Still confident we will show a profit by the end of the year. Last year from November 3rd on we had a 44.36% ROI to put things in perspective. Our Friday commute podcast was a dud again this week asNov 06, 2017 Freddy Wills
Packers +115 3% playNov 05, 2017 Freddy Wills
49ERS +8.5 / CHIEFS +8.5 3.3% PLAYNov 05, 2017 Freddy Wills
Titans -3.5 5.5% NFL PODNov 05, 2017 Freddy Wills
Colts +7 -115 3.3% play
