Oct 07, 2023 Freddy Wills
Iowa State +7 -120 1.2% play Iowa State has faced elite level defense so far, and the offense is gaining confidence and hitting strides. Overall they faced an average 24th ranked ypp defense, an average opponent 31st ranked passing success ranked defense, and 27th opponent success rate defense. It’s a pass first offense and they’ll get a chance to attack TCU who ranks 106Oct 07, 2023 Freddy Wills
Louisville +7 -120 5.5% NCAAF POD This game has all the ingredients of an upset win here for Louisville. Notre Dame is off back to back games that took a full effort and were high leverage results coming down to the last few plays. Louisville has the extra day of rest and prep, and will be at home at night with their first sell out crowd in 4 years. Jeff Brohm is the betOct 07, 2023 Freddy Wills
Georgia / Kentucky Under 48 3.3% play I like the under in this game. I feel Georgia has taken a step back offensively, while Kentucky's offense is a bit over rated. Both of these offenses have faced a very weak opponent defensive ranking on the season. Boht of these offenses play at a very slow pac e95th, and 123rd in seconds per play. I still feel like Georgia has an elitOct 07, 2023 Freddy Wills
Kent / Ohio Under 45.5 2.2% play Ohio's defense has been elite to start the season ranking 4th in ypp allowed, and while it's come against a weak opponent offense they will face the same this week as Kent State ranks 133rd in ypp offense, 102nd in explosive offense. There will be windy conditions in this game too. Ohio is a 24 to now a 26 point favorite for a reason. When they hOct 07, 2023 Freddy Wills
Navy / North Texas Over 61 2.2% play Playing any service academy over the total is always a concern because they run the ball a ton and they play at a slow pace, but the spots I like to take the over is when they are playing a team that is poor against the run, have a capable offense, and play up tempo. North Texas is 31st in pace, they rank 38th in yards per play, and they rank 127Oct 07, 2023 Freddy Wills
Alabama -130 3.5% play Bama is still being punished for their loss to Texas and their struggles vs. South Florida, but honestly what has Texas AM proven so far? This is nearly a 3 TD line move from the past 4 years where the spread is 24, 18.5, 18, an17 to a pk, and now back up to 2, or 2.5 since limits increased. Alabama has more impressive SEC wins vs. Ole Miss and Miss State than tOct 07, 2023 Freddy Wills
Texas/Oklahoma over 60 2.2% playOct 07, 2023 Freddy Wills
LSU -4 3.3% PLAY I’m really not buying into this MIssouri team right now. Their offense is not balanced despite ranking 21st in yards per play their average opponent ypp defense ranks 89th, and they rank 88th in rushing ypc, and while LSU’s defense has struggled it has come against teams that are top 50 in passing and rushing, and have a QB that can run. Brady Cook has onlOct 07, 2023 Freddy Wills
Oklahoma +5.5 3.3% play Texas is getting a lot of the early action with 80% tickets and $, but the spread has actually dropped and gone the other way. To me these teams seem pretty even to me, and there are more red flags on the Texas side. First off they won 49-0 last year, but that was an Oklahoma team battling major injuries and in the first year of Brent Venables scheme, which wasOct 02, 2023 Freddy Wills
Giants +8.5 / Commanders -1 3.3% playOct 01, 2023 Freddy Wills
Patriots +6 3.3% playOct 01, 2023 Freddy Wills
Texans / Steelers Over 42 3.3% playOct 01, 2023 Freddy Wills
Browns / RAvens Under 20 1st Half 2.2% playOct 01, 2023 Freddy Wills
Bills -140 3% playOct 01, 2023 Freddy Wills
Ravens +8.5 / Titans +8.5 3.3% teaserOct 01, 2023 Freddy Wills
Dolphins Bills over 52.5 2.2%Oct 01, 2023 Freddy Wills
Falcons +3.5 -1.20 1.1% Free PlaySep 30, 2023 Freddy Wills
Duke / Ndame Under 53.5 3.3% play Duke is 99th in pace, Notre Dame is 112th, and both are run first teams. Notre Dame does not seem to want to take the chains of Sam Hartman, and Duke is 1st in explosive defense, 111th in explosive offense. This total is just too high and I expect the pace of this game to be on the slower side.Sep 30, 2023 Freddy Wills
Iowa State +20 1.1% Free Play Iowa State has an elite defense, and we have seen Oklahoma sputter on offense a couple times thus far. Oklahoma obviously has a look ahead next week to Texas and Red River Rivalry with playoff aspirations and revenge on their mind after they got their butts kicked a year ago. Iowa State under Matt Campbell has played well on the road in thisSep 30, 2023 Freddy Wills
Ole Miss +3 -115 2.5% play LSU is a big play for a lot of folks this week, but I don’t understand it. First of all the home team is 8-2 straight up and 9-1 ATS in the series. Ole Miss came off the game against Alabama where they did not cover, but LSU missed covering the spread a week ago by 2 TD’s. I just don’t understand how a team is favored on the road in tSep 30, 2023 Freddy Wills
Boise State +3 2.2 % play Memphis has played the far easier schedule than Boise who has faced Washington and Central Florida. Memphis needs to throw the ball to be successful while Boise needs to run it, and both defenses struggle, but Boise’s stats are a bit inflated as their game with Washington’s pass happy offense that is hard for anyone to stop. Memphis just gSep 30, 2023 Freddy Wills
Indiana +14.5 2.2% play Indiana getting some extra points here in my opinion after nearly losing to Akron in OT and getting out gained by 200 yards. Indiana has played very good defense against Ohio State and Louisville, while Maryland continues to get hype despite not playing anyone. The average opponent ypp defense that Maryland has has faced ranks 108th in ypp defense, an average 9Sep 30, 2023 Freddy Wills
BC / Virginia O53 2.2% playSep 30, 2023 Freddy Wills
Syracuse +7 2.2% play This line will move to 6.5 or less. Syracuse always gives Clemson issues especailly at home now Clemson has to come up here after a brutal loss with their National Championship hopes gone. The level of focuse this week is going to be very difficult for the coaching staff and players.Sep 30, 2023 Freddy Wills
Florida Gators +3 3.3% play My formulas love the Gators to win outright, and with dual revenge after losing the past 2 years I think the Gators have drawn some confidence from the Tennessee game and will win this game. Grabbing it now as this line will certainly dip below 3.
