Sep 17, 2017
Freddy Wills
Steelers -6 2.2% play ...
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Sep 16, 2017
Freddy Wills
Clemson -3 1.1% Free Play - 14-3-1 ATS since last year on Free CFB Plays
I like Clemson in this spot even after a big game. I still think this team is playing with a chip on their shoulder as defending champions. They sport the best defense in the country with the best defensive line. Who better to stop Lousiville's Lamar Jackson? I expect Jackson to really struggle in this game, and I exp...
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Sep 16, 2017
Freddy Wills
Kentucky +7 2.2% @7:30PM ET
South Carolina 2-0 ATS, and Kentucky is 0-2 ATS. The team that is 0-2 ATS in week 2 facing a 2-0 ATS team has covered 58% of the time over the last 5 years. When I look at this match up I see it as a field goal game. To this point Kentucky really hasn't played well and hasn't had to face the level of competition that South Carolina has. South Carolina has been lu...
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Sep 16, 2017
Freddy Wills
LSU -1.5 & Stanford -2.5 4.4% Teaser
LSU -1.5 @7PM ET
Miss State has been impressive thus far and against CUSA runner up last week scoring 57 points on 60 plays. It was a misleading victory that in my opinion is giving us value this week. They did not even eclipse 500 yards in that game, and Nick Fitzgerald has not proven he can pass the ball against good defenses. LSU very capable of ta...
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Sep 16, 2017
Freddy Wills
LA Tech +225 2.5% Play @ 7PM ET
Big coaching advantage here with Skip Holtz (27 wins the last three years), taking on Mike Sanford who looks like he might have destroyed what Jeff Brohm built. Okay maybe I am exaggerating, but still Sanford in his staff have no experience and they lost a ton on offense, and the offensive line looks a mess. It's a bad match up against Louisana Tech who wants re...
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Sep 16, 2017
Freddy Wills
Toledo -9 2.2% @ 7PM ET
This spread looks too high for Toledo, a MAC team facing Tulsa, an AAC team. Normally I would tend to agree especially since Tulsa was a 10 win AAC team. In a slow paced game this is more like -3 Toledo, but the fact of the matter is both of these teams like to play as fast as possible. Toledo has the better defense and Tulsa is starting an inexperienced QB in Chad Pre...
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Sep 16, 2017
Freddy Wills
Ohio State -30 2.2% play @4:30PM ET
The defensive and offensive coordinator really need a feel good game and a confidence booster to get this season back on track. This really reminds me of 2014 where JT Barret struggled and Ohio State lost at home to Virginia Tech. They then averaged 56 points per game over their next 4 games including a 66-0 victory over Kent State following the loss. In 201...
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Sep 16, 2017
Freddy Wills
BYU +16.5 5.5% POD @ 3:30PM ET
BYU has really struggled, but their schedule has been a bit rough the first few weeks and they are finally going home. They do have to face Wisconsin here, but this is the biggest home under dog role they have been in since 2004. BYU will face Wisconsin, a top 10 team, but is that really warranted? Wisconsin has really struggled on offense in their first few gam...
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Sep 16, 2017
Freddy Wills
Baylor +14.5 2.2% Play
As bad as Baylor has been and they have been bad, the oddsmakers have corrected them by 14 points and I see us having value on Baylor. I acutally feel like Baylor will be a profitable team to back this season and maybe I'm jumping on them too early, but I feel like it's a good spot. Duke just off a big win that nobody expected and they have their biggest rival in North C...
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Sep 16, 2017
Freddy Wills
Air Force / Michigan Over 48.5 3.3% play @ 12PM ET
Air Force had an extra week to prepare for this game and should be very healthy and they should have a very good offensive game plan. Michigan I predict will give up 14 points or more in this one as they are not used to seeing a triple option team like Air Force. I expect them to want to get up big early with big plays down field and then get ...
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Sep 16, 2017
Freddy Wills
Pitt +13.5 3.3% play @12PM ET
Pittsburgh is off a very misleading final score last week. They actually outgained Penn State 342-312 but lost by 19 points. They averaged just 2.60 points in Penn State territory and were -2 TO margin and the game was definitely closer than the final indicated. Oklahoma State was -2.5 favorite at home in this match up a year ago, and this line indicates they'd b...
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Sep 15, 2017
Freddy Wills
Make sure you invest in this weekend's package and grab NFL & College Football! REMINDER! All of Freddy's plays are released 1 minute after play starts and archived in his records table on Freddywills.comLines will move.. These plays were released on Thursday. It's always best to invest in multiple weeks so you are getting the best odds! Invest in one of the many option ...
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Sep 13, 2017
Freddy Wills
Looking at all the key games where Vegas missed by more than two touchdowns. It's important to note that a lot of these results will move a team down or up especially if they covered the spread by a big margin. Often we think it's too big of a move when you consider it is just one game. For today's podcast we will only look at MOV for college football against the spread and on Totals. In our n...
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Sep 13, 2017
Freddy Wills
Misleading Final Scores
Week #2
Pittsburgh out gained Penn State by 30 yards, but lost by 19. Pitt really held Penn State's offense in check for most of the game holding them to just 312 total yards. Penn State actually held a +17.6 yard edge in field position and were +2 in turnover margin which really made the difference here. There is definitely going to be value backing Pitt moving f...
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Sep 11, 2017
Freddy Wills
Saints/Vikings Under 47.5 2.2% play The Vikings offense made some improvements and Sam Bradford is now back for a full year, but I'm not sold on this offense improving. The Vikings signed mediocre free agents on the offensive line that is really young with 6 of their 9 lineman having 3 years or less experience. Last year they were dead last in yards per carry, rushing yards, bottom of the league...
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Sep 10, 2017
Freddy Wills
Bears +7 3.3% Play Super Bowl losers opening up week 1 on the road as a favorite are 2-15 ATS! Chicago was actually not that bad last year on the season they out gained their opponents. Chicago suffered from a -20 turnover margin ratio, but a bulk of that came to end the year when they had nothing to play for. I have always liked John Fox as a head coach and I could see the ...
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Sep 10, 2017
Freddy Wills
Bengals -3 +100 2.2% PlayAs of right now it appears like this line could be heading to -2.5, but as soon as it does it will get gobbled up and move back to -3. I'll take it at -3 and I feel there is good value here. The Ravens looked awesome in pre-season while the Bengals looked awful 4-0 vs. 1-3, but as bad as the Bengals are late in the season and in the playoffs Marvin Lewis has this tea...
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Sep 10, 2017
Freddy Wills
Jets +8 5.5% NFL PODThere has not been a more devalued team in NFL history than this years NY Jets and I am going to fade the idea that everyone is painting against this football team. I still think they will have an above average defense and with at total sitting around 40 there is clearly value on the Jets at +8. The Jets have a veteran QB, along with a veteran RB in Matt Forte who c...
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Sep 09, 2017
Freddy Wills
Stanford +200 2.5% Dog of the Week! Stanford has really dominated this series going 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings which include 6-1 ATS at USC. To me USC is getting far too much hype and their defense is not up to a college football playoff caliber level and it will show again this weekend in my opinion. I watched the USC vs. Western Michigan game again and while Western Michigan is very good...
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Sep 09, 2017
Freddy Wills
Illinois +7.5 5.5% PODI know this can̢۪t be an exciting play on Illinois after last
week̢۪s game against Ball State, but Western Kentucky did not look good in an
under the radar game against a bad FCS team (Eastern Kentucky â€" 3-8 LY). This is a much different Western Kentucky
team than previous years as they return only 10 starters. Mike White is back at QB, but he loses Tayw...
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Sep 09, 2017
Freddy Wills
Missouri -2.5 3.3% SEC GOWBoth offenses have 10 returning starters and both have QB̢۪s that are getting a lot of hype, but I tend to lean towards Missouri̢۪s offense a bit more and they are home in this game. Drew Lock put up great numbers a year ago and I think Jake Bentley is a year away from being really really good. In this match up a year ago South Carolina won at home 31-21 despite bei...
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Sep 09, 2017
Freddy Wills
Clemson/Auburn Under 54.5 2.2% PlayAt this point both offenses are far behind their team̢۪s defenses. This should be a defensive game in my opinion and we are getting a bit of an inflated total based on how these two offenses played last week against bad teams. Both defenses return 7 starters on defense from the match up that was a 19-13 final. Auburn had just 262 yards at home in this match ...
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Sep 09, 2017
Freddy Wills
Fresno State +44 1.1% Free Play I look for Fresno State to be one of the most improved teams in the country this year after a 1-11 season. They were not as bad as their record showed as they had a lead in 6 games by 14 or a 4th quarter lead. This year they bring in a new head coach in Jeff Tedford and they have 10 returning starters on offense 6 on defense. Their strength on defense is their de...
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Sep 09, 2017
Freddy Wills
Georgia +11.5 / Rutgers +1.5 4.4% TeaserGeorgia +11.5 I expect Georgia to have a shot at winning this game outright. Notre Dame looked great against Temple last week, but Temple has a new coaching staff and and only 4 returning starters. Georgia has 10 returning starters and are the favorites to win the SEC East at this point. They did lose their starting QB in Jacob Eason, but actually E...
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Sep 09, 2017
Freddy Wills
Arkansas +3 -105 2.2% play Arkansas is a tough team for me to back after last year with their blown leads, but I feel like they are the right side as a home dog. I donâ€Â™t understand the hype of TCU this was a team that barely beat Kansas on the road. Their QB Kenny Hill has gotten hype before and his 4-14 ATS record as a starter is something to take seriously. Hill on the road last year ...
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