Georgia STate +7 -120 2.5% play
Georgia State 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games, a role they are more than fine playing in. They’ll make the trip to Marshall for the first time, and with 7 losses have nothing to play for, but I would argue their senior leadership on offense and defense have something to play for, their LAST GAME. This was a team that really was supposed to be better, and had leads in games that proved that, last week they were up 20 vs. James Madison for instance, they also held a big lead against Coastal Carolina. Marshall’s offense is not good enough to mount any type of comeback if we see something similar here today.
Marshall’s offense is build on the run 59% of their plays are run plays. They’ll face Georgia State who is very good against the run ranking 50th epa run defense. Marshall when playing a top run defense is just 2-3 averaging 17ppg, and their two wins were more to do with the fact that they were +5 to margin. Actually, Marshall +13 to margin in their wins -5 in their losses. Georgia State ranks 55th in % of possessions ending in a OT, and on defense rank 8th at forcing them.
Marshall’s defense has been the story for this team as they rank 14th in ypp, 11th in ypc and they have overcome a historically bad offense for Marshall ranking 101st n ypp, 1026th in epa passing offense 120th in epa run offense. Georgia State is 3-1 vs. teams with bad offenses this year. Georgia State defense is more than capable of holding their own in this game. Georgia State’s offense is going to throw a running QB at them, which is something they really haven’t seen this year. They faced Lafayette’s up-tempo offense with somewhat of a running QB and lost 13-23, while the QB ran for 45 yards.
