North Carolina +1 1.1% Free PLay
I’ll take the extra 3 points of value as North Carolina opened -4 now down to -1 for the instate show down between App State and North Carolina. App State is very much a public dog, as the public knows very well that this team has been able to upset the P5 opponents. In fact they upset North Carolina in 2019, in Mack Brown’s first season, but I would point to the fact that North Carolina was hosting #1 ranked Clemson the next week.
Part of this line movement is also, because UNC played FAMU last week as a 45 poitn favorite and only led 35-24 in the third, but I think we saw some good things form Drake Maye at QB, which is the biggest question mark of this team. Maye spread the ball around, and has to have confidence behind a veteran OL. App State also has a veteran OL, two top RB, and veteran QB in Chase Brice, but Brice still turnover prone, 30 INT’s in his career, and in 2020 vs. UNC at home went 11-23, and had 0TD and 1 INT.
Mack Brown has emphasized winning on the road as the key to this team’s season. They haven’t won on the road in 630 days, and wouldn’t it be perfect to get a win against App State as a basic dog vs. little brother. I think the talent gap comes out and UNC wins this game.
