Tulsa / Miss State Under 46 2.2% play

I like the under this game as we have two top 50 defenses going up against two bad offensess.  Miss State came on at the end of the year, but mostly due to the fact that they played some very bad defenses and here they go up against an experienced defense running the 3-3-5, and ranked 9th in ypp, and the forecasted weather, which is calling for 15 mph with 30mph gusts and rain and cold temperatures out of Fort Worth will not be kind to what Miss State would like to do in this one.  Tulsa meanwhile faced just two top defenses and averaged just 15 points in those games.  Their offensive success rate ranks 75th, and their strength is on the passing game as they rank 101st in epa run offense, which does not set up well with the weather.  Unless we see a ton of turnovers leading to oints, which we obviously can, I believe this goes under the total. 

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