LA Tech +7 2.2 % PLAY

Tech’s statistical profile is not pretty, but when you factor in that they had UAB, conference champions, BYU, a top 15 team, Marshall, and TCU on their schedule it’s not as bad as it seems those are 4 top 25 defenses.  Tech’s average opponent YPP differentiation was +0.55, compared to Georgia Southern’s -0.36.  To put it in perspective the average YPP differentiation for the nation is -0.05.  Meanwhile Georgia Southern’s 6 wins came against opponents who were 15-40 on the season.  They had just 2 wins by more than a TD.  A game against hopeless Umass, and a 5-3 FAU team that had a weird end to their season.  Even an 0-10 La Monroe team kept it within 5 points.

Georgia Southern’s offense is one dimensional, and they’ll be without their starting QB Shai Wertz it looks like who is doubtful for this game.  I just don’t see a one dimensional team that runs the ball 76% of the time getting margin and LA Tech has faced similar teams like UAB and UTSA who are great at running the ball, but don’t have balance, and Georgia Southern has even less balance.  LA Tech lost on the road to UTSA by 1, while they beat UAB by 3.  They will be without starting QB Luke Anthony, but Aaron Allen played well against a tough UAB defense 18-26 191 yards 2 TD and 0 INT, but then he struggled at TCU.

LA Tech has the better coach with Skip Holtz who is 6-0 in bowl games, and they’ll be jacked up to be playing in the Super Dome in New Orleans.  LA Tech has lost the TO battle in just 2 games all year and those were to P5 TCU, and BYU.  They also have a significant edge on special teams, which should play a factor in this game.