Marshall +4.5 3.3% play
This handicap is pretty similar to the handicap in the MAC Title game against Ball State, where Ball State beat Buffalo as a 14 point dog. Here we have a Marshall team that is very good against the run, and has a balanced enough offense. Honestly, I think they should be favored, but they are down their star RB, and two good offensive lineman, but I think Marshall wins this game on defense.
The defense ranks 6th vs. the run and 5th in epa run defense, which is better than Ball State's 44th ranking. Marshall also held down an App State team to 7 points earlier in the year, which is a comparable rushing offense which ranks 6th in ypc offense and that came against tougher defenses than Buffalo. Marshall held App State under 100 yards rushing they also held UAB's top rushing offense out of the end zone. Their problem against UAB was they could not pass the ball, which is key to them winning. UAB ranked 8th in EPA pass defense, while Buffalo ranks 57th.
Marshall's offense should have some success even without 3 key offensive players. Buffalo has faced just two teams in the top 50 in offense or success rate and gave up 38 and 41 points. The other teams rank on average 112th so they have clearly gotten some numbers against inferior opponents.
Doc Holliday 12-3 in bowl games and he lost last year, which I think he bounces back with a win with a hungry team that has done well against the MAC. Marshall is 13-6 +5.1 points vs. the MAC and 2-0 +16ppg in bowl games. Overall C-USA has dominated the MAC in bowl games +4ppg and a 16-11 record while they also own a 53-34 record vs. the MAC.
