Iowa State +6 3.3% play
The idea that Oklahoma’s defense has completely turned the corner is a bit of a myth in my opinion. They have been tremendous since the Texas game, and have improved their season rankings, but lets take a look at their last 5 opponents who rank on average 90th, in YPP off, rushing ypc, QB rating, success rating combined. Iowa State ranks 19th in those categories, and Texas who put up 45 points is the only other team ranked in the top 50. Their last 5 opponents can not convert on third down averaging 33.9% and I don’t think Oklahoma will be able to completely stop Iowa State to win this game by a TD.
Iowa State has gotten better as the season has progressed, and looking at the numbers you could argue that the wrong team is favored here. Oklahoma could be favored simply on the brand of their name and the ratings of their players, but Matt Campbell is 5-0 ATS against Oklahoma. I believe he is the better coach and I believe he proved it by his half time adjustments earlier in the season. This is a younger Oklahoma team and although they get Stevenson back in the backfield he is still not the best RB in this game. Iowa State’s defense is fully capable of getting a pass rush without blitzing and they are extremely hard to score on in the red zone holding opponents to 44.83% TD percentage making the +5.5 very valuable.
