Ball State +14 -120 buy ½ point 4.5 % NCAAF POD
Buffalo leads the nation in scoring, and are getting a lot of hype, but a closer looks reveals they have faced some really bad defenses. ON average they have faced a YPP defense ranking 108.8, 97.8 in ypc defense, and 99 in QB rating defense. Ball State’s strength is stopping the run they rank 42nd in ypc defense, and 28th in EPA run defense, and they have played by far the tougher schedule.
Buffalo’s opponent record is 6-18, and they have an average YPP differential of -0.98, while Ball State’s opponents are 15-19 and their opponent YPP differential is +0.11. Aside from Ball State having the ability to at least slow Buffalo and Jarret Paterson down their offense can also stay on the field. They are converting 48.8% of their third downs against some very good defenses at getting off the field. They are sneaky good on offense ranking 19th in success rate. Buffalo has faced success rate offenses ranked 118th, 96th, 117th, 116th, and 2nd. Kent State who ranks 2nd in success rate scored 41 points, but they play no defense. I wouldn’t be shocked to see Ball State pull the upset here.
