Memphis +4.5 2.2% play

Only 25% of the money on Memphis after their 35-21 loss at Tulane last week, but this Memphis team is 7-3, with all their losses coming on the road, and they return home here.  Houston is a team that has not played since November 14^th, and they rank 117^th in TO margin, so I’m not sure how anyone could back them as a road favorite.  Houston also ranks 89^th in pass defense, which is a bad sign as Brady White and Memphis is one of the better passing teams, and Houston also has not been good against the run ranking 85^th.  The three teams Memphis lost to all had top 60 run defenses, which Houston does not, which means Memphis should be able to control the game.  If they win the TO battle they will have a 70% chance of covering the spread which I think they will.