Arkansas +32 3.3% play
Alabama getting 71% of the tickets 91% of the money as of Thursday going up against Arkansas a team that is much improved despite another losing record. They lost 3 games in the final seconds, and they actually have a positive YPP differential vs. a positive opponent YPP differential, which is rare for a losing team. I also like the fact that they take care of the ball, and rank 14th in TO margin, and they play hard for Sam Pittman. Alabama also has the SEC Championship game next week, and really the only thing they could be playing for is Mac Jones Heisman, but he’s the favorite, and that can be won next week against Kyle Trask and Florida so I would even doubt that to be honest. Alabama also typically would face Auburn in a meaningful game before the SEC Championship game, but that game was played earlier in the year so really weird situation going on the road to face Arkansas.
Arkansas could be without Feleipe Franks again, but I thought KJ Jefferson looked great against Missouri last week, and I think no matter who goes they should have some success. Arkansas is just the 4th team Alabama has faced that ranks on average Top 60 when you average out their QB ratting, QB rating defense, EPA passing offense, EPA passing defense, and Arkansas has the best average, and the best pass defense on paper. The average score of those 3 other games was 52-32, a difference of 20 points, and Alabama did not win a single one of those games by 30+. Their defense also gave up 24, 24, and 48 points in those games. Both teams also don’t play extremely fast so winning by 32 here is going to be tough given all the facts I laid out.
