West Virginia +7 -125 buy hook 3% play
Iowa State is in an interesting spot for this game as they will know before the game starts if they are goign to the Big 12 Championship. If Oklahoma State loses to TCU, then Iowa State has nothing really to play for here. They beat West Virginia by 24 last year on the road, and they should have their eyes focused on the Big 12 Championship game, which is part of my angle here.
More importantly is Iowa State's inability to win with margin against top tier defenses. They have faced 6 defenses that I would consider Top 50 or 60, and they went 4-2 against those teams, but their 4 wins have come by 3, 3, 7, and 7, and West Virginia is the best defense of all 6 opponents. Now, West Virginia's offensive opponents are big reason why they're 10th in ypp allowed, but overall their defense is far better number wise than the otehrs.
On the flip side, West Virginia has faced three top rushing offenses, and the best rushing offense they faced was TCU, which they really held in check. I do worry that this defense has played far better at home, and not as good on the road, but I think what makes up for it is the fact that Iowa State as I said is not winning with margin. West Virginia's red zone defense holding opponents to 42% TD's is going to be the key to allow us to cover.
West Virginia also has the extra week to be completely healthy after Iowa State just went on the road to face Texas and got a win in dramatic fashion. West Virginia played extremely wella gaisnt Texas and had a chance to win late before losign 13-17. So these teams are pretty even, and Leddie Brown, WV RB should have a decent game here, as he is a load and has proven he can run against good defenses when healhty, 156 yards against a very good TCU run defense is impressive. If Iowa State gets up by double digits I would expect the back door to be wide open as well as Iowa State will be looking toward their Big 12 Championship game on deck.
