Lafayette +3 3.3% play
While this game seems to not mean as much to Lafayette who is already playing in the Sun Belt Championship game, I think they want to act a little revenge on App State who beat them the last two years in the Sun Belt Championship game, and have gone 4-0 under two different head coaches the last two years. This game will be played in the rain, and both teams already like to run the ball first, but Lafayette runs the ball better ranking 7th in rushing ypc, against toughter opponent defenses ranking 64.22 in ypc defense allowed compared to App State who ranks 16th against an easier schedule of defenses ranking 74.5 on average. Defensively Lafayette is improved compared to recent years ranking 67th in ypc defense, and that came against a stronger schedule of offenses ranking 60.11. App State on the other hand has not played as well on defense compared to previous years ranking 69th in run defense, and that has come gainst an average opponent ypc offense ranking 74.87.
So the last 4 match ups have been closer in each game, 10 point, 11, 10, and 7 in last year's Sun Belt Championship. The biggest difference here is App State's run defense compared to previous versions. In 2019, App State ranked 43rd and that was against an opponent rushing offense ranking 54, and in 2018 they ranked 21st against average 53. So App State's run defense has gotten worse against worse competition. Lafayette on the other hand has gotten better as they ranked 100th, and then 90th in stopping the run to 67th this year. However, the biggest difference for Lafayette comes in their pass defense.
They rank 28th in TO margin, and veteran QB Zachary Smith has not been the same guy turning the ball over far too much. Lafayette ranks 8th in pass defense, and when you compare that against their previous 2 years it's a drastic improvement. 2018 they ranked 113th, and last year they rank 27th, to this year ranking 8th, and that has come against an average opponent ranking of 59. The YPP differential the last 3 years including this year has finally tilted towards Lafayette, as they have gone from 0, 1.1, and this year to 1.9 yards per play differential. App State previoulsy always had that edge, but this year they come in at 1.4, and that has come against weaker competition.
App State vs. good running teams that also play good pass defense are 0-2 this year losing by 10 and 11 points, while Lafayette against those same type of teams have gone 2-1, with their lone loss coming by 3 points to Coastal Carolina. I think the only reason you wouldn't want to take Lafayette in this game is the fact that they may not care about the game, but this is a standalone game on ESPN, and Lafayette is trying to solidify their TOP 25 ranking against a known powerhouse in the conference in App State. You bet Billy Napier wants this game. At the end of the day I think this is a clsoe game and having the 3 points with Lafayette makes me feel confident.
