Louisiana Tech -110 2.2% play
Tech has seen multiple games canceled due to COVID, and have not played since Halloween night, where their struggling offense put up 37 points on a very good UAB defense. In the last 10 days they have also seen their top WR and backup RB opt out, but the line has moved from -3.5 to -1, and I don’t think those players are worth 2.5 points. They get to face the worst defense that they have faced all year long. LA Tech is 2-0 vs. defenses who rank in the 90s in YPP allowed. North Texas ranks 122nd, and they rank 124th in stopping the run.
Now Tech’s offense has struggled, but they have still been able to put up points at times this season, and much of their struggles offensively have had to do with the fact that they have played three top 25 defenses in BYU, Marshall, and UAB. I like for Louisiana Tech to score some points here as they will finally get to go up against a weaker defense.
The strength of schedule is really not comparable so I feel like we are getting some value with Tech, who also has the better coaching staff along with the fact that they take care of the ball better ranking 36th in TO margin compared to North Texas who ranks 113th. La Tech’s opponents YPP differential is +0.72, compared to North Texas opponent YPP differential of -0.47, which is a huge differential in strength of schedule. LA Tech played significantly better in common opponents, and they should still care about this game if they want to get to a bowl game.
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