Kansas State +6 3.3% play

These two teams are about even.  Baylor -0.3 yards per play differential against an opponent YPP differential of -0.1, and Kansas State has identical numbers.  Kansas State off the thumping by Iowa State to the tune of 45-0, and that has many questioning if Kansas State has given up on the season.  I see an opportunity as we are clearly getting line value with Kansas State.  I don’t believe they have checked out, and I could be wrong, but it’s really not in the DNA of this program.  They are also still alive for a bowl, while Baylor is not.

Besides Kansas, Baylor has the worst offense of any team that Kansas State has faced all year, and Baylor also struggled in the red zone which means it will take a lot for them to win by margin.  The TO Margin over their last 3 games is -7, and that’s a huge concern, but this is not typically a team that turns it over.  Will Howard has to be better at QB, and I believe he can keep them in this game with his feet.  It also helps that Baylor will be without their top tackler Bernard who is lost for the season.

I’ve watched a lot of the Baylor games this year.  I understand if you look at the final scores you would think this team is a good 1-5 team, but they are not.  There have been a lot of yards in garbage time and they should have been blown out in a few games that they weren’t.  This just feels like a game that Kansas State would steal. Remember Kansas State is the same team that just lost by 2 points to Oklahoma State, they beat Oklahoma, TCU, and Texas Tech.  They are in their much preferred under dog role again 12-5-1 ATS in their last 18 as a road dog, 36-15-1 ATS in their last 52 games following an ATS loss.