San Jose State +11.5 3.3% play
This is a relatively big game for the Mountain West as the winner has a route to the Conference Championship. There is some value in this number in my opinion when you consider San Jose State has the better statistics, and both teams do not like to run a lot of plays, ranking 112th and 119th in plays per game, which means this game should be shortened. The total is still pretty high at 58, and these two teams combined for 94 points last year, so I wouldn’t be rushing to play the under, but I do think San Jose State is live here as a dog.
For one, the Boise State defense is not as good as years past. They rank 50th in ypp allowed, 81st in rushing defense, 108th in EPA run defense. They faced two top tier offenses from a statistical perspective with Air Force and BYU. Air Force put 30 points on the board, while BYU put up 51. San Jose State ranks 14th in QB rating, and 19th in yards per play, and that’s without Nick Starkel playing in all the games. Starkel has been great, and I think he could have a great game here, as Boise’s defense has shown they are not as dominant as years past, and it’s not like San Jose has not been tested. They put up 28 points against San Diego State, a defense that is better than Boise State at this point in the season.
I think the key to this game is San Jose State who has been better in the trenches this year. They rank 16th in run defense and that has come against an opponent avg ypc offense of 43.75. So that run defense has been legit, and they rank 22nd in EPA run defense. If they can get Boise into third and medium/long their excellent pass rush which ranks 5th in sack % could impact this game.
Boise State has been outgained on the season, they’re coming back from Hawaii which was a long trip. San Jose State 23rd in TO margin, compared to Boise State who ranks 98th, another reason why I like the Spartans here. They’re also getting just 41% of the money, and the line has not moved.
