I am 3-1 ATS in my career in the New Orleans Bowl and I have a strong lean on 2014 version. We skipped this game in 2012, but have won 3 of the other 4 since 2009 in big fashion. We get two similar run first teams going at it and one team is playing in this bowl game for the 4th straight year. Don't forget to pick up - We have gone 100-75 ATS in our career in December college football games! We are up 56.48 units this college football season as well!


Despite the Rajin Cajuns being in a home like atmospher and the fact that they are 3-0 in this bowl game the last 3 years I am going to go with Nevada out of the Mountain West. I just really felt like the Sun Belt Conference was down this year ranked #11 in my conference power rankings while the Mountain West was #6. Common opponent here was Boise State and the results were drastically different. Nevada also played two PAC 12 teams while Lafayette played Ole Miss out of the SEC. Strength of schedule Nevada had the more challenging road.

Onto the game now.. Both of these teams rely on the run first running the ball nearly 60% of the time and both feature mobile QB's in Terrance Broadway and Cody Fajardo from Nevada. The funny thing about Nevada is they don't need to run the ball well to win. For instance they are running the ball just as good in losses as they are in wins and they ran the ball well against Boise State while LA Lafayette got shut out. Also Nevada's running game really faced many more challenging defenses with 7 in the top 65 while Lafayette faced only 4 and 3 over their first 3 games. Here is the key though for Lafayette as when they lose they are allowing opponents to rush for 5.73 yards per carry, but in wins they allow 3.11. I don't think they can stop Nevada's running game especially with FAjardo leading the way. Only BYU and Arizona have been able to do so and those two defenses are among the best.

Nevada's defense in my opininion could have some success against the run as Lafayette has no passing game. Ever since they lost Jamal Robinson at WR in the middle of the season they really struggled to get this part of the offense going. This ironically is the key to Nevada's season. When they win they have held opposing QB's to 115 QB rating, but in losses 174. Well it just so happens they have faced some really good passing offenses and Lafayette is just not one of them. Nevada will be able to concentrate on the run and they have two 1st team All Mountain West guys to do it in Brock Hekking and Ian Seau.

Where to find Freddy?