Georgia Southern -1 2.2% play
Georgia Southern’s losses have come against Lafayette, Coastal, and Army all on the road. They should have beaten Army, as they blew a 21-7 lead, and ran the ball to run out the clock losing to Army by 1 point. I think they bounce back here against Georgia State who they have dominated.
Georgia State also lost to Coastal and Lafayette by bigger margins and at home rather than on the road. Georgia State is 0-3 vs. top 50 rushing offenses, and the one team they faced that had a top 50 rushing offense and top 50 rushing defense, beat them 51-0. Georgia Southern obviously relies heavily on the run 76% and rank 14th in rushing ypc, and 26th in EPA rushing offense. On paper it appears Georgia State’s rushing defense is great, but a closer look at their games against good rushing teams says otherwise. They gave up 490 yards rushing and 6 TD well over 5 ypc in their two games against Coastal and Lafayette. Georgia Southern’s run defense allowed 148 and 130 to those two and only 2 combined TD’s and did that on the road. Georgia State’s biggest defensive rank is their pass rush, which obviously doesn’t help them as much in this game. I think their pass rush has also helped to make their run defense look better than it actually is.
Worth noting is that Georgia Southern has also taken better care of the ball ranking 37th in TO margin compared to Georgia State’s 72nd ranking.
The big question is Georgia Southern’s QB Shai Werts, who is probably for this game, and I’m obviously banking on him playing here. If he doesn’t we would look to hedge out of this bet live.
