Stanford -105 3% play

Stanford seems to be the better team here in my opinion with small sample size.  Both have played two games, and STanford was without their starting QB Davis Mills vs. Oregon as well as their best cover corner Kyu Blu Kelly, which really hurt them in that game.  For that reason I think Stanford's #'s could be a bit better, but one thing is clear they have faced the tougher schedule as their opponents are a combined 5-0 compared to Cal's opponents who are 2-5 with both of their opponents wins coming against Cal.  I haven't been impressed with the usual stout Cal defense that ranks 116th in success rate defense, and their offense ranks 117th in success rate offense.  Stanford hasn't been much better in either category, but I think at least it's more explainable.  missing key players, and better competition.

Neither defense has played well this season as Cal is really missing the NFL starters they lost from last year's team and I think that continues to hurt them in this game. I really like Justin Wilcox as a coach, but I don't think he has the usual coaching advantage here, and STanford should be a little fresher for the only game that matters to them in a lost season.  

At the end of the day I continue to play these games conservatively.  At the end of the day we really do not know the mindset of these players in an extremely weird year.  This being a rivalary game I do think there will be full effort from both teams, and Stanford has dominated this series and have a little revenge from losing last years game by 4 as they were -2 TO Margin in the game.


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