Texas -1 3.3% play
This may be the squarest play I make all year. Yes, I know Texas defense is banged up, but I think we are getting value in this number based on Texas game last week against Kansas as they escaped at home against Kansas 50-48. Texas always struggles the week after Oklahoma and this is giving us a cheap price. If Texas can just find a way to get through this game, and into their bye they are going to be in good shape. The defense has struggled, but when you have LSU & Oklahoma on your schedule your defensive statistical profile is not going to be great. Kansas offense is much better than people give it credit for They rank 31st in yards per play, which is 32 spots better than TCU. They also have a balanced offense ranking 11th in rushing yards per carry, and 41st passing the ball. The threat of both is what gives Texas defense trouble. TCU really does not have that, and despite all the playmakers they still can not figure it out at QB ranking 84th in QB rating.
Offensively Texas is arguably the best unit that TCU has faced as far as talent. TCU's defense is not as good as it has been in years past. TCU faced two elite passing attacks, SMU and Iowa State and they gave up 40+ points in both games while losing both games. This is a desperate TCU team, but Texas is not going to let them win, and in a tight game who are you going to trust Sam Ehlinger or Max Duggan? When Texas offense has had trouble this year it was against Oklahoma where they got behind the sticks as Ehlinger was sacked 9 times in the game, but TCU's defense although they rank 35th in YPP allowed struggled in pass defense and getting to the QB. That happens when you lose 3 guys on the defensive line who are now playing in the NFL and were replaced by freshman. The DE have just 1.5 sacks on the season they rank 72nd in sack %, 58th in QB Rating allowed.
Texas is like the new Oklahoma. The defense has been bad, but the offense makes up for it all unless they face an offense that is actually better than theirs. There are not many offenses that are. LSU and Oklahoma checked those boxes, but TCU doesn't come close. Years ago I would have loved to take the defensive team in this one, but value on Texas who is essentially a dog, and we all know how HC Tom Herman has done as a dog. Texas has a huge advantage in special teams ranking 26th having faced a better opponent average special teams, while TCU ranks 76th. TO margin also in favor of Texas ranking 24th, compared to TCU 107TH. Don't be surprised if their defense plays agressive to force those 2 or 3 turnovers to win this game. That's exactly what kept them in the game against Oklahoma. Lastly, we are giving Texas shit for giving up points to Kansas, a team ranked in the top 40 in YPP, and Texas had 2 TO's, and missed on two 4th and 2's that set Kansas up with good field position. TCU struggled with just 17 points against a Kansas State team that has not been able to stop the run ranking 124th. In fact Texas is actually better at stopping the run than Kansas State. If TCU will have to score in the 40's to win this game, and I don't think they can do it.
